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Development of Evaluation Model for ITS Project using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도분석을 이용한 ITS사업의 경제성평가모형)

  • Lee, Yong-Taeck;Nam, Doo-Hee;Lim, Kang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.

Residual Consistency and Interrelationship Estimation of PCDDs, PCDFs, Dioxin-like PCBs in Colostrum of Primipara and Multipara (초산부, 경산부 초유 중 PCDDs, PCDFs, dioxin-like PCBs의 축적수준 및 상관성 평가)

  • We, Sung-Ug;Kim, Ki-Ho;Cho, Yu-Jin;Cho, Bong-Hui;Park, Sang-Ah;Baek, In-Cheon;Kang, Seong-Hoon;Yoon, Cho-Hee;Min, Byung-Yoon
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.1078-1085
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    • 2010
  • Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCBs) are bioaccumulative chemicals that are considered to be toxic contaminants based on several epidemiological studies. These chemicals in colostrum were investigated and estimated for their residual consistencies by maternal characteristics like parity and maternal ages. Test subjects were healthy primipara and multipara mothers with a mean age of 31.5 (S.D=3.6) in 2007. Seven isomers of PCDDs, 10 of PCDFs, 4 of non-orthopolychlorinated biphenyls(non-ortho PCBs) and 8 of mono-orthochlorinated polychlorinated biphenyls (mono-ortho PCBs) were analyzed by HRGC/HRMS. From the analyzed data, the mean level of total WHO-TEQs was 9.41 pg TEQ/g lipid, which is significantly lower than the level found in individuals from other countries. The main contributors to the total WHO-TEQs with increasing percentages were 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF, 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD and 3,3',4,4',5-PCB (#126), and they accounted for more than 60% of the total WHO-TEQs. PCDFs concentrations and total WHO-TEQs were negatively associated with parity (p<0.05), and maternal age was positively associated with total WHO-TEQs (p<0.01). However, the associations with body mass index (BMI) and fish intake during pregnancy were not significant. These results were suggested that parity and maternal age are an important factor affecting the concentrations of PCDD/DFs and dl-PCBs in these specimens.

Assessment of Environmental Pollution in Korean Stream Sediments by Chemical Analyses and Insect Immune Biomarkers

  • Ryoo, Keon-Sang;Byun, Sang-Hyuk;Hong, Yong-Pyo;Cho, Ki-Jong;Bae, Yeon-Jae;Kim, Yong-Gyun
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.330-342
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    • 2008
  • A comprehensive quality survey for PCDDs/PCDFs and coplanar PCBs as well as heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb) in sediments has been investigated in August 2006, Korea. Monitoring was undertaken at five streams representing different surrounding environments throughout Juwang and Gapyeong streams (reference sites), Jungrang stream (dense population site), Ansan stream (mixed small population and industrial site), and Siheung stream (heavy industrial site). The levels of heavy metal in samples were found to be significantly higher in sediment from Siheung stream compared to those of other stream sites. The heavy metal concentrations (dry weight basis) in sediment from Siheung stream were as follows; Cd (3.7 ${\mu}g$/g), Pb (1,295 ${\mu}g$/g), Cu (713.4 ${\mu}g$/g) and Zn (358.1 ${\mu}g$/g). Among 12 coplanar PCBs and 17 PCDDs/PCDFs selected as target compounds in this study, PCB (IUPAC no. 118) and OCDD were the most abundant congeners found in all sediment samples, followed by 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD, OCDF and 1,2,3,4,6,7,8HpCDF as well as PCB (IUPAC no. 105). These results were shown to be in the same trend as the sediment samples of other countries. The levels of PCDDs/PCDFs/coplanar PCBs in sediment samples were expressed as concentrations and WHO- TEQ values. The PCDDs/PCDFs/coplanar PCBs concentrations and their WHO-TEQ values in sediment from Siheung stream were remarkably high. The levels detected were 788.16 pg/g and 36.080 pg WHO-TEQ/g dry weight for PCDDs/ PCDFs and 314 pg/g and 0.4189 pg WHO-TEQ/g dry weight for coplanar PCBs, respectively, beyond the safety level of sediment value 20 pg WHO-TEQ/g. Sediment samples of the five streams were also monitored by sensitive biomarkers using insect immune responses: hemocyte-spreading behavior and immune-associated enzyme activities of phospholipase A$_2$ (PLA$_2$) and phenoloxidase. Organic extracts of Siheung and Jungrang sediments significantly interfered with the hemocytespreading behavior, whereas those of Ansan, Gapyeong, and Juwang did not. These organic extracts did not inhibit the PLA$_2$ and phenoloxidase activities. However, phenoloxidase was highly susceptible to exposure to aqueous extracts in all site sediments. In comparison, PLA$_2$ activities of the hemocytes were significantly inhibited only by aqueous extracts of Siheung, Jungrang, and Gapyeong sediments, but not by those of Ansan and Juwang. Despite some disparity between bioand chemical monitoring results, the biomarkers can be recommended as a device warning the contamination of biohazard environmental chemicals because of a fast and inexpensive detection method.

Analysis for Usefulness of Arterial Embolization on Sacral and Pelvic Giant Cell Tumors (천골 및 골반골에 발생한 거대세포종에 대한 동맥 색전술 치료의 효용성 분석)

  • Kim, Seung Hyun;Yoon, Gil Sung;Cho, Yong Jin;Shin, Kyoo-Ho;Suh, Jin-Suck;Yang, Woo-Ick
    • The Journal of the Korean bone and joint tumor society
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.50-55
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the usefulness of arterial embolization on sacral and pelvic giant cell tumor (GCT). Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 9 patients who had undergone serial arterial embolization between December 1996 and May 2008. We analyzed the clinical outcomes and therapeutic responsiveness of arterial embolization on sacral and pelvic GCT. Results: Six of 9 cases showed progression of disease (PD) status, even if 5 cases showed PD status despite of additional treatments including surgery and radiation, implying that serial arterial embolization on sacral and pelvic GCT is not effective. Three of 9 cases showed stable disease (SD) or continuous disease free (CDF) status and we analyzed associated factors with these good responses for embolization by ${\chi}^2$ test. The number of feeding vessels under six (p=0.048) and the number of collateral arterial supply under three (p=0.048) in the first angiogram showed significant relationships with good response for embolization, while remaining tumor staining by contrast after the first embolization and repeated embolization times were not significant. Conclusion: Although serial arterial embolization is not an effective modality on sacral and pelvic giant cell tumors, it may be a pilot modality under narrow indication of tumors with poor vascularity at first angiogram.

Development of a gridded crop growth simulation system for the DSSAT model using script languages (스크립트 언어를 사용한 DSSAT 모델 기반 격자형 작물 생육 모의 시스템 개발)

  • Yoo, Byoung Hyun;Kim, Kwang Soo;Ban, Ho-Young
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.243-251
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    • 2018
  • The gridded simulation of crop growth, which would be useful for shareholders and policy makers, often requires specialized computation tasks for preparation of weather input data and operation of a given crop model. Here we developed an automated system to allow for crop growth simulation over a region using the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) model. The system consists of modules implemented using R and shell script languages. One of the modules has a functionality to create weather input files in a plain text format for each cell. Another module written in R script was developed for GIS data processing and parallel computing. The other module that launches the crop model automatically was implemented using the shell script language. As a case study, the automated system was used to determine the maximum soybean yield for a given set of management options in Illinois state in the US. The AgMERRA dataset, which is reanalysis data for agricultural models, was used to prepare weather input files during 1981 - 2005. It took 7.38 hours to create 1,859 weather input files for one year of soybean growth simulation in Illinois using a single CPU core. In contrast, the processing time decreased considerably, e.g., 35 minutes, when 16 CPU cores were used. The automated system created a map of the maturity group and the planting date that resulted in the maximum yield in a raster data format. Our results indicated that the automated system for the DSSAT model would help spatial assessments of crop yield at a regional scale.

Effective Antitumor Activity of a Recombinant Vaccinia Virus Expressing Murine Interleukin 4 (인터루킨-4를 발현하는 재조합 백시니아 바이러스에 의한 암성장의 억제)

  • Yoon, Kee-Jung;Jin, Ning-Yi;Kim, Sun-Young
    • The Journal of Korean Society of Virology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 1998
  • Vaccinia virus is the prototype orthopoxvirus that has been used as a vaccine strain for small pox. This virus has been used to express a variety of cellular and viral genes in mammalian cells at high levels. Interleukin-4 (IL-4) has been found to stimulate the proliferation of T cells and enhance the cytolytic activity of cytotoxic T lymphocytes. To test the immunotherapeutic potential of IL-4 delivered in vivo by poxvirus, a recombinant vaccinia virus expressing the murine IL-4 gene (RVVmIL-4) was constructed. A high level of IL-4 production was confirmed by infecting HeLa cells and measuring IL-4 in cell culture supernatant by ELISA. As a tumor model, two cell lines were used; the murine T leukemic line P388 and the murine breast cancer line TS/A. CDF1 mice were intraperitoneally inoculated with $1\;{\times}\;10^5$ cells of P388. Mice were injected at the same site with $5\;{\times}\;10^5\;PFU$ of recombinant vaccinia virus; first, 3 days after the injection of tumor cells and thereafter once every week for 3 weeks. Intraperitoneal injections of RVVmIL-4 significantly prolonged the survival time of mice inoculated with tumor cells. All mice injected with RVVmIL-4 remained alive for 30 days after the postinoculation of tumor cells, while 100% and 70% of the animals injected with saline or wild type vaccinia virus died, respectively. In another tumor model using TS/A, tumor was established by subcutaneously inoculating $2{\times}10^5$ tumor cells to BALB/c mice. After tumor formation was confirmed on day 4 in all mice, $5\;{\times}\;10^6\;PFU$ of RVVmIL-4 was inoculated subcutaneously three times, once every week for 3 weeks. The TS/A tumor was eradicated in two of the nine mice. Seven of the nine mice treated with RVVmIL-4 developed a tumor, but tumor growth was significantly delayed compared to those treated with saline or wild type vaccinia virus. These results indicate that recombinant vaccinia viruses may be used as a convenient tool for delivering immunomodulator genes to a variety of tumors.

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Reconstruction with Extracorporeally Radiated Autogenous Bone Graft After Wide Resection of Bone Tumors (골종양 절제후 방사선 조사한 자가골을 이용한 재건술)

  • Lee, Jong-Seok;Jeon, Dae-Geun;Kim, Sug-Jun;Lee, Soo-Yong;Yang, Hyun-Seok
    • The Journal of the Korean bone and joint tumor society
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.32-38
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    • 1997
  • PURPOSE : For the reconstruction of large bone defect after tumor resection, it is possible to reuse the bone involved by tumor with some treatment to it. Several bone-reusing methods have been reported such as autoclaving, low-heat treatment(pasteurization) and intraoperative radiotherapy. We have used extracorporeally radiated autogenous bone graft for reconstruction after tumor resection, and analyzed the periods for junctional union, functional results and complications to know the indications of this method. METHODS : From Dec. 1993 to Sept. 1995, nine patients had taken autogenous bone graft with extracorporeal irradiation. Eight cases were osteosarcoma and 1 giant cell tumor. The graft sites were 5 in femur, 3 proximal tibia and 1 femur and tibia. Stage 3 was 1 case(GCT), Stage IIB 3 and Stage IIIB 5. After wide resection, surrounding soft tissue and intramedullary and extramedullary portion of the tumor were removed. Radiation was done in 5000cGy to the resected bone. Ender nails and bone cement were inserted and filled into the medulla to prevent fracture. RESULTS : Average follow-up period was 12.3(4 to 21) months. Average junctional union period in simple X-ray was 6.5 months in 4 cases. Average functional score following Enneking's criteria was 19(12-27). Complications were as follows ; condylar fractures and femur neck fracture in 4 cases, subluxation of the knee joint 3 and infection 1. Although local recurrence was detected in 1 case, the site of recurrence was not in the radiated bone but surrounding soft tissue. At final follow-up, no recurrence was found in one case(GCT), CDF 2, AWD 2, DOD 3, and died of chemotherapy related sepsis 1. CONCLUSIONS : Extracorporeally radiated bone autograft is considered to be a method for reconstruction of the large bone defect made by tumor resection, especially in the reconstruction around the joint.

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Production of Chimeric Mice Following Transgenesis of Multipotent Spermatogonial Stem Cells (유전자변형 다분화능 정원줄기세포를 이용한 키메라 생쥐의 생산)

  • Lim, Jung-Eun;Eum, Jin-Hee;Kim, Hyung-Joon;Park, Jae-Kyun;Lee, Hyun-Jung;Lee, Dong-Ryul
    • Development and Reproduction
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.305-312
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    • 2009
  • Multipotent spermatogonial stem cells (mSSCs), derived from uni-potent SSC, are a type of reprogrammed cells with similar characteristics to embryonic stem cells (ESCs). The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential for transgenesis of mSSC derived from outbred mice and the production of transgenic animal by the mSSC-insertion into embryo. mSSCs, established from outbred mice (ICR strain) in the previous study, were maintained and then transfected with a lenti-viral vector expressing green fluorescent protein (GFP), CS-CDF-CG-PRE. Embryonic stem cells (ESCs) were derived from inbred transgenic mice (C57BL/6-Tg (CAG-EGFP)) and were used as an experimental control. Transfected mSSCs were well proliferated in vitro and maintained their characteristics and normal karyotype. Ten to twelve mSSCs and ESCs were collected and inserted into perivitelline space of 8-cell mouse embryos, and then transferred them into uteri of poster mothers after an additional 2-days of culture. Percentage of mSSC-derived offsprings was 4.8% (47/980) and which was lower than those (11.7% (67/572)) of ESC-derived ones (P<0.05). However, even though different genetic background of mSSC and ESC origin, the production efficiency of coat-colored chimeric offspring in mSSC group was not different when compared it with ESC (6.4% (3/47) vs. 7.5% (5/67)). From these results, we confirmed that mSSC derived from outbred mice has a pluripotency and a potential to produce chimeric embryos or mice when reaggregatation with mSSC is performed.

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Study on Probabilistic Analysis for Fire·Explosion Accidents of LPG Vaporizer with Jet Fire (Jet Fire를 수반한 국내외 LPG 기화기의 화재·폭발사고에 관한 확률론적 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2012
  • This study collected 5,100 cases of gas accident occurred in Korea for 14 years from 1995 to 2008, established Database and based on it, analyzed them by detailed forms and reasons. As the result of analyzing the whole city gas accidents with Poisson analysis, the item of "Careless work-Explosion-Pipeline' showed the highest rate of accidents for the next 5 years. And, "Joint Losening and corrosion-Release-Pipeline" showed the lowest rate of accident. In addition, for the result of analyzing only accidents related to LPG vaporizer, "LPG-Vaporizer-Fire" showed the highest rate of accident and "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults" showed the lowest rate of accident. Also, as the result of comparing and analyzing foreign LPG accident accompanied by Jet fire, facility's defect which is liquid outflow cut-off device and heat exchanger's defect were analyzed as the main reason causing jet fire, like the case of Korea, but the number of accidents for the next 5 years was the highest in "LPG-Mechanical-Jet fire" and "LPG-Mechanical-Vapor Cloud" showed the highest rate of accidents. By grafting Poisson distribution theory onto gas accident expecting program of the future, it's expected to suggest consistent standard and be used as the scale which can be used in actual field.

An Assessment of Applicability of Heat Waves Using Extreme Forecast Index in KMA Climate Prediction System (GloSea5) (기상청 현업 기후예측시스템(GloSea5)에서의 극한예측지수를 이용한 여름철 폭염 예측 성능 평가)

  • Heo, Sol-Ip;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Ryu, Young;Kang, Hyun-Suk;Lim, Yoon-Jin;Kim, Yoonjae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2019
  • This study is to assess the applicability of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) algorithm of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system to the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), operational seasonal forecast system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EFI is based on the difference between Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curves of the model's climate data and the current ensemble forecast distribution, which is essential to diagnose the predictability in the extreme cases. To investigate its applicability, the experiment was conducted during the heat-wave cases (the year of 1994 and 2003) and compared GloSea5 hindcast data based EFI with anomaly data of ERA-Interim. The data also used to determine quantitative estimates of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and spatial pattern correlation. The results showed that the area of ERA-Interim indicating above 4-degree temperature corresponded to the area of EFI 0.8 and above. POD showed high ratio (0.7 and 0.9, respectively), when ERA-Interim anomaly data were the highest (on Jul. 11, 1994 (> $5^{\circ}C$) and Aug. 8, 2003 (> $7^{\circ}C$), respectively). The spatial pattern showed a high correlation in the range of 0.5~0.9. However, the correlation decreased as the lead time increased. Furthermore, the case of Korea heat wave in 2018 was conducted using GloSea5 forecast data to validate EFI showed successful prediction for two to three weeks lead time. As a result, the EFI forecasts can be used to predict the probability that an extreme weather event of interest might occur. Overall, we expected these results to be available for extreme weather forecasting.