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http://dx.doi.org/10.7731/KIFSE.2012.26.4.031

Study on Probabilistic Analysis for Fire·Explosion Accidents of LPG Vaporizer with Jet Fire  

Ko, Jae-Sun (Dept. of Fire Service Administration, Howon Univ.)
Publication Information
Fire Science and Engineering / v.26, no.4, 2012 , pp. 31-41 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study collected 5,100 cases of gas accident occurred in Korea for 14 years from 1995 to 2008, established Database and based on it, analyzed them by detailed forms and reasons. As the result of analyzing the whole city gas accidents with Poisson analysis, the item of "Careless work-Explosion-Pipeline' showed the highest rate of accidents for the next 5 years. And, "Joint Losening and corrosion-Release-Pipeline" showed the lowest rate of accident. In addition, for the result of analyzing only accidents related to LPG vaporizer, "LPG-Vaporizer-Fire" showed the highest rate of accident and "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults" showed the lowest rate of accident. Also, as the result of comparing and analyzing foreign LPG accident accompanied by Jet fire, facility's defect which is liquid outflow cut-off device and heat exchanger's defect were analyzed as the main reason causing jet fire, like the case of Korea, but the number of accidents for the next 5 years was the highest in "LPG-Mechanical-Jet fire" and "LPG-Mechanical-Vapor Cloud" showed the highest rate of accidents. By grafting Poisson distribution theory onto gas accident expecting program of the future, it's expected to suggest consistent standard and be used as the scale which can be used in actual field.
Keywords
Database Structure; Vaporizer gas accident; Poisson distribution; PDF (Probability Density Function); CDF (Cumulative Density Function); Jet fire; Domino effect;
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