• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty modelling

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Fuzzy Modeling and Stability Analysis of Wind Power System with Doubly-fed Induction Generator (이중여자 유도발전기 기반 풍력발전 시스템의 퍼지 모델링 및 안정도 해석)

  • Kim, Jin-Kyu;Joo, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.56-61
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    • 2012
  • This paper propose the robust stability algorithm for controlling a variable speed wind power system which based on doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG). The control object in the wind power system enables the rotor to rotate without any physical contact by using magnetic force. Generally, the system dynamics of the wind power system has severe nonlinearity and uncertainty so that it is not easy to obtain the control objective. For solving these problems, we propose the fuzzy modelling and robust control algorithm for wind power system. The sufficient conditions for robust controller are obtained in terms of solutions to linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Simulation results for wind power system based on DFIG are demonstrated to visualize the feasibility of the proposed method.

Sensitivity Analysis According to Fault Parameters for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Curves (단층 파라미터에 따른 확률론적 지진해일 재해곡선의 민감도 분석)

  • Jho, Myeong Hwan;Kim, Gun Hyeong;Yoon, Sung Bum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.368-378
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    • 2019
  • Logic trees for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment include numerous variables to take various uncertainty on earthquake generation into consideration. Results from the hazard assessment vary in different way as more variables are considered in the logic tree. This study is conducted to estimate the effects of various scaling laws and fault parameters on tsunami hazard at the nearshore of Busan. Active fault parameters, such as strike angle, dip angle and asperity, are adjusted in the modelling of tsunami propagation, and the numerical results are used in the sensitivity analysis. The influence of strike angle to tsunami hazard is not as much significant as it is expected, instead, dip angle and asperity show a considerable impact to tsunami hazard assessment. It is shown that the dip angle and the asperity which determine the initial wave form are more important than the strike angle for the assessment of tsunami hazard in the East Sea.

Modelling Pasture-based Automatic Milking System Herds: Grazeable Forage Options

  • Islam, M.R.;Garcia, S.C.;Clark, C.E.F.;Kerrisk, K.L.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.703-715
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    • 2015
  • One of the challenges to increase milk production in a large pasture-based herd with an automatic milking system (AMS) is to grow forages within a 1- km radius, as increases in walking distance increases milking interval and reduces yield. The main objective of this study was to explore sustainable forage option technologies that can supply high amount of grazeable forages for AMS herds using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. Three different basic simulation scenarios (with irrigation) were carried out using forage crops (namely maize, soybean and sorghum) for the spring-summer period. Subsequent crops in the three scenarios were forage rape over-sown with ryegrass. Each individual simulation was run using actual climatic records for the period from 1900 to 2010. Simulated highest forage yields in maize, soybean and sorghum- (each followed by forage rape-ryegrass) based rotations were 28.2, 22.9, and 19.3 t dry matter/ha, respectively. The simulations suggested that the irrigation requirement could increase by up to 18%, 16%, and 17% respectively in those rotations in El-Nino years compared to neutral years. On the other hand, irrigation requirement could increase by up to 25%, 23%, and 32% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in El-Nino years compared to La-Nina years. However, irrigation requirement could decrease by up to 8%, 7%, and 13% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in La-Nina years compared to neutral years. The major implication of this study is that APSIM models have potentials in devising preferred forage options to maximise grazeable forage yield which may create the opportunity to grow more forage in small areas around the AMS which in turn will minimise walking distance and milking interval and thus increase milk production. Our analyses also suggest that simulation analysis may provide decision support during climatic uncertainty.

Adaptive Management: a key tool for natural resource management (자연자원관리를 위한 핵심도구: 적응관리)

  • Park, Young Cheol;Yoo, Jae Won;Jeong, Su-young;Oh, Tae-Geon;Kim, Jong Ryol;Choe, Mi Kyung;Choi, Ok-in
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.267-280
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    • 2019
  • Adaptive Management (AM) is one of the best available approaches for managing natural resources in the presence of uncertainty. In spite of the limitations, AM has been widely applied in nature resource management policies and plans internationally, while application of AM in nature resource management in Korea is limitedly used. Accordingly, this study reviews application of AM in nature resource management research in Korea with respect to its definitions, procedures, impediments and considerations. The present study also reviews recent ecological modelling studies which is an essential component of AM approach. Finally, management of artificial sea forest, coastal wetlands and fisheries are suggested as the recommended fields to adopt AM.

Robust Stability Analysis of Hybrid Magnetic Bearing System (하이브리드 자기베어링 시스템의 강인 안정도 해석)

  • Sung, Hwa-Chang;Park, Jin-Bae;Tark, Myung-Hwan;Joo, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.372-377
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    • 2011
  • This paper propose the robust stability algorithm for controlling a hybrid magnetic bearing system. The control object in the magnetic bearing system enables the rotor to rotate without any physical contact by using magnetic force. Generally, the system dynamics of the magnetic bearing system has severe nonlinearity and uncertainty so that it is not easy to obtain the control objective. For solving these problems, we propose the fuzzy modelling and robust control algorithm for hybrind magnetic bearing system. The sufficient conditions for robust controller are obtained in terms of solutions to linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Simulation results for HMB are demonstrated to visualize the feasibility of the proposed method.

Multivariate design estimations under copulas constructions. Stage-1: Parametrical density constructions for defining flood marginals for the Kelantan River basin, Malaysia

  • Latif, Shahid;Mustafa, Firuza
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.287-328
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    • 2019
  • Comprehensive understanding of the flood risk assessments via frequency analysis often demands multivariate designs under the different notations of return periods. Flood is a tri-variate random consequence, which often pointing the unreliability of univariate return period and demands for the joint dependency construction by accounting its multiple intercorrelated flood vectors i.e., flood peak, volume & durations. Selecting the most parsimonious probability functions for demonstrating univariate flood marginals distributions is often a mandatory pre-processing desire before the establishment of joint dependency. Especially under copulas methodology, which often allows the practitioner to model univariate marginals separately from their joint constructions. Parametric density approximations often hypothesized that the random samples must follow some specific or predefine probability density functions, which usually defines different estimates especially in the tail of distributions. Concentrations of the upper tail often seem interesting during flood modelling also, no evidence exhibited in favours of any fixed distributions, which often characterized through the trial and error procedure based on goodness-of-fit measures. On another side, model performance evaluations and selections of best-fitted distributions often demand precise investigations via comparing the relative sample reproducing capabilities otherwise, inconsistencies might reveal uncertainty. Also, the strength & weakness of different fitness statistics usually vary and having different extent during demonstrating gaps and dispensary among fitted distributions. In this literature, selections efforts of marginal distributions of flood variables are incorporated by employing an interactive set of parametric functions for event-based (or Block annual maxima) samples over the 50-years continuously-distributed streamflow characteristics for the Kelantan River basin at Gulliemard Bridge, Malaysia. Model fitness criteria are examined based on the degree of agreements between cumulative empirical and theoretical probabilities. Both the analytical as well as graphically visual inspections are undertaken to strengthen much decisive evidence in favour of best-fitted probability density.

Stochastic analysis of the rocking vulnerability of irregular anchored rigid bodies: application to soils of Mexico City

  • Ramos, Salvador;Arredondo, Cesar;Reinoso, Eduardo;Leonardo-Suarez, Miguel;Torres, Marco A.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 2021
  • This paper focuses on the development and assessment of the expected damage for the rocking response of rigid anchored blocks, with irregular geometry and non-uniform mass distribution, considering the site conditions and the seismicity of Mexico City. The non-linear behavior of the restrainers is incorporated to evaluate the pure tension and tension-shear failure mechanisms. A probabilistic framework is performed covering a wide range of block sizes, slenderness ratios and eccentricities using physics-based ground motion simulation. In order to incorporate the uncertainties related to the propagation of far-field earthquakes with a significant contribution to the seismic hazard at study sites, it was simulated a set of scenarios using a stochastic summation methods of small-earthquakes records, considered as Empirical Green's Function (EGFs). As Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP), the absolute value of the maximum block rotation normalized by the body slenderness, as a function of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is adopted. The results show that anchorages are more efficient for blocks with slenderness ratio between two and three, while slenderness above four provide a better stability when they are not restrained. Besides, there is a range of peak intensities where anchored blocks located in soft soils are less vulnerable with respect to those located in firm soils. The procedure used in here allows to take decisions about risk, reliability and resilience assessment of different types of contents, and it is easily adaptable to other seismic environments.

Stability of Saturation Controllers for the Active Vibration Control of Linear Structures (선형 구조물의 능동 진동 제어를 위한 포화 제어기의 안정성)

  • Moon, Seok-Jun;Lim, Chae-Wook;Huh, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.10 no.6 s.52
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2006
  • Control input's saturation of active control devices for large structures under large external disturbances are often occurred. It is more difficult to obtain the exact values of mass and stiffness as structures are higher. The modelling errors between mathematical models and real structures must be also included as parameter uncertainties. Therefore, in active vibration control of civil engineering structures like buildings and bridges, the robust saturation controller design method considering both control input's saturation and parameter uncertainties of system is needed. In this paper, stabilities of linear optimal controller LQR, modified bang-bang controller, saturated sliding mode controller, and robust saturation controller among various controllers which have been studied and applied to active vibration control of buildings are investigated. Especially, unstable phenomena of the LQR, the modified bang-bang controller and the saturated sliding mode controller when the control input is saturated or parameter uncertainties exist are presented to show the necessity of the robust saturation controller. The robust stability of the robust saturation controller are shown through a numerical example of a 2DOF linear vibrating system and an experimental test of the two-story structure with an active mass damper (AMD).

Inventory Management in Construction Operations Involving on-site Fabrication of Raw Materials (원자재 조립.가공과정을 갖는 건설공사 프로세스의 적정 재고관리 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Im, Keon-Soon;Han, Seung-Heon;Jung, Do-Young;Ryu, Chung-Kyu;Choi, Seok-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.187-198
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    • 2008
  • There are usually plenty of material inventories in a construction site. More inventories can meet unexpected demands, and also they may have an economical advantage by avoiding a probable escalation of raw material costs. On the other hand, these inventories also cause negative aspects to increase costs for storing redundant inventory as well as decreasing construction productivity. Therefore, a proper method of deciding an optimal level of material inventories while considering dynamic variations of resources under uncertainty is very crucial for the economical efficiency of construction projects. This research presents a stochastic modelling method for construction operations, particularly targeting a work process involving on-site fabrication of raw materials like iron-rebar process (delivery, cut and assembly, and placement). To develop the model, we apply the concept of factory physics to depict the overall components of a system. Then, an optimal inventory management model is devised to support purchase decisions where users can make timely actions on how much to order and when to buy raw materials. Also, optimal time lag, which minimizes the storage time for pre-assembled materials, is obtained. To verify this method, a real case is applied to elicit an optimal amount of inventory and time lag. It is found that average values as well as variability of inventory level decreased significantly so as to minimize economic costs related to inventory management under uncertain project condition.

Information Needs Expressed by Mothers of Young Children with Disabilities (장애아동 양육을 위한 어머니의 정보요구에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Gui-Ok;Lee, Jong-Ryol;Park, Chun-Man
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.195-213
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    • 2005
  • Objectives: This study aims to determine fostering stress and mental health state that mothers of handicapped children perceive as primary care givers and to analyze their demand for information assistance in order to release their stress so that it can provide materials that contribute to establishment of assistance system for families with handicapped children. Methods: The research subjects were 340 mothers whose children went to a nursery for special children, 3 general nurseries and 6 special schools in Daegu, and the data were collected using structures questionnaires. The survey analyzed mothers' fostering stress, their demand for fostering information assistance, children's daily activity abilities. Component concepts of each scale was validated by adopting confirmatory factor analysis, and factors affecting demand for fostering information assistance were analyzed by adopting covariance structural analysis. Results: Younger mothers tend to have higher demand for information, and mothers with younger children or children with double handicaps also have higher demand. Mothers under 30 have the lowest demand for public health and medical care assistance and for home and community life assistance, while mothers with children with physical handicaps have the highest. The validity of component concepts was verified by categorizing as cognitive structure models fostering stress, information demand, children's daily activity abilities, and their appropriateness was evaluated through confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modelling. And then, GFI (more than 0.9), CFI (more than 0.9), TLI (more than 0.9) and RMSAE (less than 0.08) were used to evaluate the appropriateness. It was found that all the component concepts are valid, as every item is within appropriate range. The result of analyzing information demand demonstrated that children's handicap levels significantly affect their mothers' mental health, while fostering stress significantly affect mothers' metal health, information demand. As well, it was confirmed that mothers' mental health has a significant effect on information demand. Conclusions: Therefore, to reduce special children's mothers' uncertainty, helplessness and fostering burden, it is necessary to provide them with information on children's challenges, development and fostering and to offer them quality public health, medical care and welfare assistance along with family and local community life assistance.