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Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

A Study on Environmental Impact Assessment Guidelines for Marine Environments in Construction Projects of Thermal Power Plant (화력발전소 건설사업의 해양환경 환경영향평가 가이드라인(안) 연구)

  • Maeng, Junho;Kim, Eunyoung;Kang, Taesoon;Son, Minho
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.78-92
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    • 2017
  • Environmental impact assessment(EIA) on the construction and operation of thermal power plant(TPP) is aimed at promoting sustainable coastal development by clearly identifying the marine physics and organisms effects of the project on the surrounding marine environment and minimizing its impact. The primary purpose of this study is to establish EIA guidelines for TPP in order to assess how TPP construction projects influence marine environment and to establish the mitigaion plans of environmental impacts. Through this study, scientific and efficient EIA guidelines for the marine environments were established by a specialist forum consisted of officials from the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, personnel from five public corporations in charge of TPPs and marine environment experts. In the study, fifteen EIA reports (2009~2015) on TPPs submitted were analyzed to identify the shortcomings of current assessment items on marine environment and to collect a wide range of information including EIA report formulation regulations, domestic and overseas environmental survey guidelines and EIA review comments on TPPs. Based on the findings, a specialist forum put together EIA guidelines for TPP construction projects.

Development of Performance Indices for Agro-food Distribution Corporations Based on the AHP Method (AHP기법을 이용한 농식품 유통법인 경영진단지표 개발)

  • Kim, Dong-Hwan;Hyun, Jong-Ki
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This study aims to develop diagnostic indices for managerial performance of agro-food distribution corporations. In particular, weights of diagnostic indices were estimated using the AHP method. Management diagnosis on agro-food distribution corporations is expected to increase their competitiveness in the domestic market as well as in international markets. Research design, data, and methodology - It develops weights or importance of the diagnostic indices based upon the survey of 21 experts in food distribution management. The survey was carried out using e-mail. Management diagnostic indices were developed based upon four BSC(Balanced Scorecard) perspectives of finance, learning/growth/leadership, customer, and internal process/technology. Results - Diagnostic indices on financial perspective consist on profitability, productivity, growth, stability and activity. Learning and leadership perspective indices consist of management will, CEO leadership, level of learning, innovation, and level of management information system. Customer perspective indices are branding, customer and channel management and internal process/technology indices consist of fourteen sub-indices representing technologies, efficiency, and dynamics. It was estimated that the weight of financial perspective index was 0.3, internal process/technology perspective index 0.248, customer category index 0.247, and learning, growth and leadership perspective index 0.205. This study also estimates weights of sub-indices for managerial diagnosis by four different perspectives. Estimated weight of profitability (0.085) is the greatest among financial perspective indices, followed by stability (0.072), growth (0.053), productivity (0.051), and activity (0.038). While estimated weights of leadership, capability, and information indices are 0.100, 0.061, and 0.044 respectively, weights of marketing, customer management, and quality and service indices are 0.104, 0.093, and 0.051, respectively. Among internal process/technology perspective, estimated weights of efficiency, technology, and innovation indices are 0.106, 0.088, and 0.054, respectively. Conclusions - The diagnostic indices for managerial performance of agro-food distribution corporations would be utilized by agro-food distribution corporations themselves, extension service institutions, and consultants. It is also expected that central and local governments use diagnostic indices developed in this study for the purpose of evaluating the effects of governmental support programs for agro-food distribution corporations. Futhermore researchers and consultants would modify diagnostic indices developed in this study, reflecting characteristics and situation of types of agro-food distribution corporations.

Improving the Ship Marine Pollution Prevention Manager Education and Training Curriculum - Based on a Comparative Analysis between Korean and Foreign Legal Education - (선박 해양오염방지관리인 교육·훈련 교육과정 개선방안에 관한 연구 - 국내·외 법정교육 비교·분석을 기반으로 -)

  • Choi, Jung-Sik;Ha, Min-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.353-365
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    • 2020
  • The quantitative increase in maritime transport for domestic and foreign trade is one of the main reasons for the increase in marine pollution accidents. Despite the implementation of relevant laws in each country to prevent and mitigate marine pollution accidents caused by ships, human negligence (carelessness, intention, etc.) by ship workers has been reported as the biggest cause of marine pollution accidents. One of the most effective ways to reduce marine pollution accidents caused by ships is to reduce human negligence through systematic education and training of ship workers. Therefore, this study aimed to review the appropriateness of the statutory education and training curriculum for ship marine pollution prevention managers in accordance with domestic laws and regulations such as the 「Marine Environment Management Act」 and suggest improvement measures. To this end, we compared and analyzed the legal training·general education courses related to the prevention of marine pollution and marine disasters in Japan, where the laws and systems are similar to Korea, and investigated the cases of legal training for experts in land pollution prevention in Korea.

A Study on the Extraction of Evaluation Structure for Conflict Resolution in Coastal Area (연안지역 이해상충 해소를 위한 평가구조 추출에 관한 연구)

  • Yeo, Ki-Tae;Park, Chang-Ho;Yi, Gi-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.105-119
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    • 2001
  • Currently serious conflicts arose for the use of coastal area in Korea. However, there is no mediation program or mediators' activities for conflict resolution which are shown in the developed countries. Even though, the MOMAF(Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries) was established in 1997 and the Division of Coastal Zone Management under the Ministry took over the authority to establish ICM program and formulated the CZMA(Coastal Zone Management Act) in 1998 after understanding the seriousness of coastal degradation due to the importance of coastal zone management and the understanding of dispute resolution, it still lacks consistency among legislative power on the continuous policy for wise coastal use and management which results coastal conflicts. The objective of this study is to lay the evaluation criteria for the formalized objective evaluation among disputants of coastal conflicts for the better understanding and characterizing of coastal conflicts in Korea. In order to do so, this study has adopted the PCA(Principal Component Analysis) for the subtraction of the components of evaluation mechanism to describe the present conditions of conflicts in the selected study area(Sihwa lake), to analyze the problems, and then to explore alternative approaches for resolving the conflicts. As research methodologies, we have depended upon literature review and field survey methods. As field survey methods, we employed structured questionnaires for the various samples from the experts of research institutes, professors, representatives of NGOs and citizens. Survey results suggested that 5 representative elements comprising 35 detailed elements could be identified. Based on these results, this study was able to identify and classify the evaluation mechanism and help to resolve coastal conflicts in Korea.

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Prioritization of issues and challenges to increase mushroom export (버섯 수출 확대를 위한 당면과제의 우선순위 도출)

  • Yeom, Yoon-Mi;Kim, Seon-Woong;Yoon, Byung-Sam
    • Journal of Mushroom
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.95-99
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    • 2020
  • The trade deficit in mushrooms has continued to increase in recent years. This study explored major issues and challenges faced by the mushroom industry to increase export, and to prioritize the current issues and challenges based on their relative importance. 11 major issues and challenges in the mushroom industry were highlighted in focus group interviews. Best-worst scaling analysis prioritized these major issues and challenges, and questionnaire surveys were completed by 31 mushroom industry experts. The results revealed that strengthening the mushroom quality and price competitiveness were the main priorities, followed sequentially by a diversification of the overseas export markets and stabilization of the domestic mushroom price.

An Analytical Study on Differences between the Types of Disputes in Food Service Franchises and the Relevant Corporate Information (외식 프랜차이징 분쟁 유형과 기업정보 간의 차이분석 연구)

  • Kang, Seok-Woo;Rha, Young-Ah
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.264-279
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    • 2013
  • This study aimed to analyze the differences between the types of disputes in food service franchises and the relevant corporate information. For this aim, the types of disputes were analyzed on the basis of the cases reported by the Korea Fair Trade Commission, and whether there are any differences from the relevant corporate information was analyzed using SPSS WIN(V.17.0). According to analysis results, the most often seen types of disputes were failure to provide the information disclosure sheet (58.5%) and failure to deposit franchising fee (15.1%). In Kruskal-Wallis test between the type of disputes and related corporate information variables, significant difference was found under significance level p<.05 for sales volume, the establishment period and the number of franchisees, and under p<.1 for the number of full-time employees. In correlation coefficient, the establishment period, the number of full-time employees and the number of franchisees showed positive correlation(p<.05), and the number of full-time employees showed correlation in the number of franchisees and the number of brands under the significance level p<.05. As a solution for the dispute, there should be franchisors' responsibility to comply with the principle of good faith, the authorities' strengthening exemplary transaction criteria and legal systems, as well as experts' consulting for prospective franchisees prior to establishing business.

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A study on the directions for the development of industrial design in Incheon -in Incheon international design competition- (인천산업디자인의 발전방향에 관한 연구 -인천국제디자인공모전의 필요성에 대하여-)

  • Kim, Young-Hee;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Boo-Chi
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.201-210
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    • 2004
  • This study is to analyze the present situation of Incheon design and to research Incheon industrial design with the special character of the city. Next, the final purpose is to apply this study for the Incheon International Design Competition event that will be held first time sponsored by Incheon Metropolitan. Incheon is Metropolitan which has 2.6 million people and the entrance of seoul Metropolitan which is the center of export industry and one of the greatest industrial city. It is growing the hub of International trade city of the twenty-first centry due to the opening of Incheon International Airport and the new development of Song-do city. The industrial structure of Incheon is mostly consist of small industry centered which has a lack of design development capacity, and it has a little insufficient design-related institutes which can educate the design personnel. It has only two universities and six junior colleges. Especially, design-related academics and exhibitions are rare nearby Seoul area. I will contribute the study which makes the industrial character and the necessity of design that can be possible through the Incheon International Design Exhibition, and it will promote the backward design industry and economy of Incheon that compared to other regions of Korea. And, I am going to utilize as basic data bases for exercising advanced Incheon Industrial Design Competition. Furthermore, I would like to contribute the image improvement of new International Incheon Metropolitan through the training of excellent design experts and finding design-related personnels which can be accomplished the cooperation among local autonomy, industries and schools.

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Study on establishing Green Port Policy in Korea to meet Ports' Characteristics: Development of Ulsan Green Port Policy by using AHP (우리나라 항만특성에 맞는 그린포트정책 수립에 관한 연구 - AHP를 이용한 울산항 그린포트 정책 우선순위 개발)

  • Kim, Tae-Goun;Kim, Hwan-Seong
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.549-559
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    • 2014
  • The increasing demand of maritime transportation and port development especially due to increased international trade resulted in a strengthening of regulating the greenhouse gas emissions mainly from ships by International Maritime Organization (IMO). Responding to these international environmental regulation and enforcement, the United States and the European seaports have expanded their Green Port Policy, which can promote the public welfare by reducing pollution caused by ships and ports. Accordingly, in 2010, Korean government enacted "The Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth" and had pushed for all Korean ports to establish and implement their own green port policies. Therefore, the objective of this study is to establish the Green Port Policy Plan for sustainable and environmental friendly operations and developments of Ulsan port, which plans to be the oil hub port of Northeast Asia. To this end, we studied the current status of the environmental policy issues in Ulsan Port and international-&-domestic case studies on establishment of green port policy. With these studies, Ulsan green policy alternatives were identified that through the experts advice, and then were prioritized by adopting AHP survey analysis. As the result of this study, it was notified that LED lights replacement and AMP establishment as the hardware policy and the port environmental management department as the software policy were equally important policy options for the implementation of sustainable Ulsan Green Port Policy to meet port's characteristics.

An Empirical Study on Evaluating the Value of Port (항만가치의 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 김태균;문성혁;노홍승
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 2001
  • Inter-port competition is fiercer than in the past because of technological evolution in transport systems : the increasing side of containerships implies only a few calls in three or four ports at each end of the trade and the rest of the traffic being served by smaller feederships. It is therefore essential for big ports to be selected as one of these calls by the main shipowners, consortia and alliances to avoid rmarginalisation. In order to compete effectively, many ports have been obliged to modernise and extend considerably its existing ports or to build new port facilities. With the advent of major environmental legislation around the world, however, amenities such as fish and wildlife, clean air and water, access to the waterfront, and view protection took on greater importance. Ports are now being forced to incorporate environmental considerations into their planning and management functions in order to avoid additional costs or timing delays. The aim of this paper is to analyse the port value by which port comparison(or selection) will be made with HFP(Hierarchical Fuzzy Process) method. This was done by extracting and grouping the evaluation factors of port value by port experts : facility and location factor, logistics service factor environment and amenity factor, city and economic factor, and human and system factor. For empirical test of this method, 6 major ports in Northeast Asia were chosen and analysed. The order of importance for five evaluation factors were 1) facility and location factor 2) logistics service factor 3) human and system factor, 4) city and economic factor, and 5) environment and amenity factor. This means that geographical location and logistics services are still being considered as the most important factor to call the port by port users. even though environment and amenity factor shows relatively low figure. Among 6 major ports, Port of Kobe was ranked the first position in a comprehensive evaluation, while Ports of Busan and Kwangyang were 4th and 5th respectively. This implies that Port of Busan should make much efforts to enhance the existing facilities as well as management system.

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