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Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways (고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2012
  • Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

Effect of Different CT Scanner Types and Beam Collimations on Measurements of Three-Dimensional Volume and Hounsfield Units of Artificial Calculus Phantom (인공결석모형물의 부피와 하운스필드값 측정에 대한 전산화단층촬영기기의 타입과 빔 콜리메이션의 영향)

  • Wang, Jihwan;Lee, Heechun
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.495-501
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the differences and reproducibility of Hounsfield unit (HU) value and volume measurements on different computed tomography (CT) scanner types and different collimations by using a gelatin phantom. The phantom consisting of five synthetic simulated calculus spanning diameters from 3.0 mm to 12.0 mm with 100 HU was scanned using a two-channel multi-detector row CT (MDCT) scanner, a four-channel MDCT scanner, and two 64-channel MDCT scanners. For all different scanner types, the thinnest possible collimation and the second thinnest collimation was used. The HU values and volumes of the synthetic simulated calculus were independently measured three times with minimum intervals of 2 weeks and by three experienced veterinary radiologists. ANOVA and Scheff$\acute{e}$ test for the multiple comparison were performed for statistical comparison of the HU values and volumes of the synthetic simulated calculus according to different CT scanner types and different collimations. The reproducibility of the HU value and volume measurements was determined by calculating Cohen's k. The reproducibility of HU value and volume measurements was very good. HU value varied between different CT scanner types, among different beam collimations. However, there was not statistically significant difference. The percent error (PE) decreased as the collimation thickness decreased, but the decrease was statistically insignificant. In addition, no statistically significant difference in the PEs of the different CT scanner types was found. It can be concluded that the CT scanner type insignificantly affects HU value and the volumetric measurement, but that a thinner collimation tends to be more useful for accurate volumetric measurement.

Long-term forecasting reference evapotranspiration using statistically predicted temperature information (통계적 기온예측정보를 활용한 기준증발산량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1243-1254
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    • 2021
  • For water resources operation or agricultural water management, it is important to accurately predict evapotranspiration for a long-term future over a seasonal or monthly basis. In this study, reference evapotranspiration forecast (up to 12 months in advance) was performed using statistically predicted monthly temperatures and temperature-based Hamon method for the Han River basin. First, the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 15 meterological stations in the basin were derived by spatial-temporal downscaling the monthly temperature forecasts. The results of goodness-of-fit test for the downscaled temperature data at each site showed that the percent bias (PBIAS) ranged from 1.3 to 6.9%, the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) ranged from 0.22 to 0.27, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ranged from 0.97 to 0.98 for the monthly average daily maximum temperature. And for the monthly average daily minimum temperature, PBIAS was 7.8 to 44.7%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.25, NSE was 0.94 to 0.96, and r was 0.98 to 0.99. The difference by site was not large, and the downscaled results were similar to the observations. In the results of comparing the forecasted reference evapotranspiration calculated using the downscaled data with the observed values for the entire region, PBIAS was 2.2 to 5.4%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.28, NSE was 0.92 to 0.96, and r was 0.96 to 0.98, indicating a very high fit. Due to the characteristics of the statistical models and uncertainty in the downscaling process, the predicted reference evapotranspiration may slightly deviate from the observed value in some periods when temperatures completely different from the past are observed. However, considering that it is a forecast result for the future period, it will be sufficiently useful as information for the evaluation or operation of water resources in the future.

Evaluation of satellite-based evapotranspiration and soil moisture data applicability in Jeju Island (제주도에서의 위성기반 증발산량 및 토양수분 적용성 평가)

  • Jeon, Hyunho;Cho, Sungkeun;Chung, Il-Moon;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.10
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    • pp.835-848
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    • 2021
  • In Jeju Island which has peculiarity for its geological features and hydrology system, hydrological factor analysis for the effective water management is necessary. Because in-situ hydro-meteorological data is affected by surrounding environment, the in-situ dataset could not be the spatially representative for the study area. For this reason, remote sensing data may be used to overcome the limit of the in-situ data. In this study, applicability assessment of MOD16 evapotranspiration data, Globas Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based evapotranspiration/soil moisture data, and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) soil moisture product which were evaluated their applicability on other study areas was conducted. In the case of evapotranspiration, comparison with total precipitation and flux-tower based evapotranspiration were conducted. And for soil moisture, 6 in-situ data and ASCAT soil moisture product were compared on each site. As a result, 57% of annual precipitation was calculated as evapotranspiration, and the correlation coefficient between MOD16 evapotranspiration and GLDAS evapotranspiration was 0.759, which was a robust value. The correlation coefficient was 0.434, indicating a relatively low fit. In the case of soil moisture, in the case of the GLDAS data, the RMSE value was less than 0.05 at all sites compared to the in-situ data, and a statistically significant result was obtained as a result of the significance test of the correlation coefficient. However, for satellite data, RMSE over than 0.05 were found at Wolgak and there was no correlation at Sehwa and Handong points. It is judged that the above results are due to insufficient quality control and spatial representation of the evapotranspiration and soil moisture sensors installed in Jeju Island. It is estimated as the error that appears when adjacent to the coast. Through this study, the necessity of improving the existing ground observation data of hydrometeorological factors is emphasized.

Impact of Awareness and Educational Experiences on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in the Ability to Execute of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation among Korean Adults (한국 성인에서 심폐소생술에 대한 인지, 교육경험이 그 시행능력에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jae-Kwang;Kim, Jeongwoo;Kim, Kunil;Kim, Keunhyung;Kim, Dongphil;Kim, Yuri;Moon, Seonggeun;Min, Byungju;Yu, Hwayoung;Lee, Chealim;Jeong, Wonyoung;Han, Changhun;Huh, Inho;Park, Jung Hee;Lee, Moo-Sik
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.234-249
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    • 2018
  • This study was performed to identify the impact of awareness and educational experiences on cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the ability to execute of cardiopulmonary resuscitation among Korean adults. This study used original data of 2014 Community Health Data Survey. 228,712 participants in this survey were resident in South Korea who is aged 19 or older on July 2014. Participants in this survey were sampled an average of 900 residents(target error ${\pm}3percent$) per community health center of Korea. Data were analyzed by using R 3.1.3 employing chi-squared test, fisher's exact analysis, and logistic regression analysis. Ability to execute CPR was significantly higher in males(3.34 time), higher the education level (1.61 times), the white color occupation (1.14 times), the higher the income level (1.07 times), the higher the education level (0.91 times), non-hypertensive patients (1.12 times), non-diabetic patients (1.16 times), non-dyslipidemic patients (0.86 times), non-stroke patients (0.30 times), CPR education experience group (3.25 times), CPR experience group with manikin-based training (4.30 times), higher subjective health status (1.08 times, 1.16 times) respectively. This study identified that awareness, educational experience, and mannequin-based learning experience of CPR impacted on the ability to execute CPR. Responding to education-related factors could contribute to reducing the rate of out-of-hospital acute cardiac arrest by improving the ability to execute CPR of the general public.

Comparison and Review of GBEF% on the Anterior and Right Lateral Images of Nuclear Hepatobiliary Scan (핵의학 간담도 스캔 시, 전면상과 우측 측면상에서의 담낭박출률에 대한 비교 및 고찰)

  • Lee, Eun-Byeol;Kim, Jae-Il;Do, Yong-Ho;Llm, Jung-Jin;Cho, Sung-Wook;Noh, Gyeong-Woon
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.92-96
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    • 2018
  • Purpose In case of nuclear medical hepatobiliary scan, To quantitatively evaluate contractility of a gallbladder, gallbladder ejection fraction (GBEF%) is calculated from anterior images using fatty meal. However, when a gallbladder and other organs overlap on an anterior image, the gallbladder ejection fraction is not accurately evaluated. In order to reduce this error, the objective of our study was to figure out whether there is a significant difference in GBEF% calculated from the anterior and right lateral images. Materials and Methods After intravenous injection of 99mTc-Mebrofenin 370 MBq to randomly 50 patients who visited our hospital, we started to examine nuclear hepatobiliary scan. Using skylight(Philips, United States), we acquired anterior and right lateral image at 10 minutes, 20 minutes, 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 90minutes after injection. Using images at 60 and 90 minutes, gallbladder ejection fraction (GBEF%) was calculated from the anterior and right lateral images using JETstream workspace. For drawing more accurate ROI, CT images were referenced and 4 radiologists calculated the GBEF% in the same image and calculated the average value. We assessed whether there was a significant difference in GBEF% calculated from the anterior and right lateral images using SPSS program(Statistical Package for the Social Science, SPSS Ver.18 Inc. USA). Results About randomly 50 patients, the average value of the GBEF% calculated from the anterior image was 63.212 and the average value of the GBEF% calculated from the right lateral image was 62.666. GBEF% decreased 0.433% on the right lateral image compared with anterior image. Result of paired sample t-test, p value is over 0.05. So, there was no significant difference in GBEF% calculated from the anterior and right lateral images. Conclusion In the case that a gallbladder and other organs are not separated on an anteior image, Right lateral image would be better to acquire more accurate GBEF% than using anterior image.

Comparative evaluation of dose according to changes in rectal gas volume during radiation therapy for cervical cancer : Phantom Study (자궁경부암 방사선치료 시 직장가스 용적 변화에 따른 선량 비교 평가 - Phantom Study)

  • Choi, So Young;Kim, Tae Won;Kim, Min Su;Song, Heung Kwon;Yoon, In Ha;Back, Geum Mun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.33
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare and evaluate the dose change according to the gas volume variations in the rectum, which was not included in the treatment plan during radiation therapy for cervical cancer. Materials and methods: Static Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (S-IMRT) using a 9-field and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) using 2 full-arcs were established with treatment planning system on Computed Tomography images of a human phantom. Random gas parameters were included in the Planning Target Volume(PTV) with a maximum change of 2.0 cm in increments of 0.5 cm. Then, the Conformity Index (CI), Homogeneity Index (HI) and PTV Dmax for the target volume were calculated, and the minimum dose (Dmin), mean dose (Dmean) and Maximum Dose (Dmax) were calculated and compared for OAR(organs at risk). For statistical analysis, T-test was performed to obtain a p-value, where the significance level was set to 0.05. Result: The HI coefficients of determination(R2) of S-IMRT and VMAT were 0.9423 and 0.8223, respectively, indicating a relatively clear correlation, and PTV Dmax was found to increase up to 2.8% as the volume of a given gas parameter increased. In case of OAR evaluation, the dose in the bladder did not change with gas volume while a significant dose difference of more than Dmean 700 cGy was confirmed in rectum using both treatment plans at gas volumes of 1.0 cm or more. In all values except for Dmean of bladder, p-value was less than 0.05, confirming a statistically significant difference. Conclusion: In the case of gas generation not considered in the reference treatment plan, as the amount of gas increased, the dose difference at PTV and the dose delivered to the rectum increased. Therefore, during radiation therapy, it is necessary to make efforts to minimize the dose transmission error caused by a large amount of gas volumes in the rectum. Further studies will be necessary to evaluate dose transmission by not only varying the gas volume but also where the gas was located in the treatment field.

A Study on Damage factor Analysis of Slope Anchor based on 3D Numerical Model Combining UAS Image and Terrestrial LiDAR (UAS 영상 및 지상 LiDAR 조합한 3D 수치모형 기반 비탈면 앵커의 손상인자 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chul-Hee;Lee, Jong-Hyun;Kim, Dal-Joo;Kang, Joon-Oh;Kwon, Young-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.7
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    • pp.5-24
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    • 2022
  • The current performance evaluation of slope anchors qualitatively determines the physical bonding between the anchor head and ground as well as cracks or breakage of the anchor head. However, such performance evaluation does not measure these primary factors quantitatively. Therefore, the time-dependent management of the anchors is almost impossible. This study is an evaluation of the 3D numerical model by SfM which combines UAS images with terrestrial LiDAR to collect numerical data on the damage factors. It also utilizes the data for the quantitative maintenance of the anchor system once it is installed on slopes. The UAS 3D model, which often shows relatively low precision in the z-coordinate for vertical objects such as slopes, is combined with terrestrial LiDAR scan data to improve the accuracy of the z-coordinate measurement. After validating the system, a field test is conducted with ten anchors installed on a slope with arbitrarily damaged heads. The damages (such as cracks, breakages, and rotational displacements) are detected and numerically evaluated through the orthogonal projection of the measurement system. The results show that the introduced system at the resolution of 8K can detect cracks less than 0.3 mm in any aperture with an error range of 0.05 mm. Also, the system can successfully detect the volume of the damaged part, showing that the maximum damage area of the anchor head was within 3% of the original design guideline. Originally, the ground adhesion to the anchor head, where the z-coordinate is highly relevant, was almost impossible to measure with the UAS 3D numerical model alone because of its blind spots. However, by applying the combined system, elevation differences between the anchor bottom and the irregular ground surface was identified so that the average value at 20 various locations was calculated for the ground adhesion. Additionally, rotation angle and displacement of the anchor head less than 1" were detected. From the observations, the validity of the 3D numerical model can obtain quantitative data on anchor damage. Such data collection can potentially create a database that could be used as a fundamental resource for quantitative anchor damage evaluation in the future.

Background effect on the measurement of trace amount of uranium by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (열이온화 질량분석에 의한 극미량 우라늄 정량에 미치는 바탕값 영향)

  • Jeon, Young-Shin;Park, Yong-Joon;Joe, Kih-Soo;Han, Sun-Ho;Song, Kyu-Seok
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2008
  • An experiment was performed for zone refined Re-filament and normal (nonzone refined) Re-filament to reduce the background effect on the measurement of low level uranium samples. From both filaments, the signals which seemed to come from a cluster of light alkali elements, $(^{39}K_6)^+$, $(^{39}K_5+^{41}K)^+$ and $PbO_2$ were identified as the isobaric effect of the uranium isotopes. The isobaric effect signal was completely disappeared by heating the filament about $2000^{\circ}C$ at < $10^{-7}$ torr of vacuum for more than 1.5 hour in zone refined Refilaments, while that from the normal Re-filaments was not disappeared completely and was still remained as 3 pg. of uranium as the impurities after the degassing treatment was performed for more than 5 hours at the same condition of zone refined filaments. A threshold condition eliminating impurities were proved to be at 5 A and 30 minutes of degassing time. The uranium content as an impurity in rhenium filament was checked with a filament degassing treatment using the U-233 spike by isotope dilution mass spectrometry. A 0.31 ng of U was detected in rhenium filament without degassing, while only 3 pg of U was detected with baking treatment at a current of 5.5 A for 1 hr. Using normal Re-filaments for the ultra trace of uranium sample analysis had something problem because uranium remains to be 3 pg on the filament even though degassed for long hours. If the 1 ng uranium were measured, 0.3% error occurred basically. It was also conformed that ionization filament current was recommended not to be increased over 5.5 A to reduce the background. Finally, the contents of uranium isotopes in uranium standard materials (KRISS standard material and NIST standard materials, U-005 and U-030) were measured and compared with certified values. The differences between them showed 0.04% for U-235, 2% for U-234 and 2% for U-236, respectively.

A Study on the Dimensions, Surface Area and Volume of Grains (곡립(穀粒)의 치수, 표면적(表面積) 및 체적(體積)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Jong Min;Kim, Man Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.84-101
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    • 1989
  • An accurate measurement of size, surface area and volume of agricultural products is essential in many engineering operations such as handling and sorting, and in heat transfer studies on heating and cooling processes. Little information is available on these properties due to their irregular shape, and moreover very little information on the rough rice, soybean, barley, and wheat has been published. Physical dimensions of grain, such as length, width, thickness, surface area, and volume vary according to the variety, environmental conditions, temperature, and moisture content. Especially, recent research has emphasized on the variation of these properties with the important factors such as moisture content. The objectives of this study were to determine physical dimensions such as length, width and thickness, surface area and volume of the rough rice, soybean, barley, and wheat as a function of moisture content, to investigate the effect of moisture content on the properties, and to develop exponential equations to predict the surface area and the volume of the grains as a function of physical dimensions. The varieties of the rough rice used in this study were Akibare, Milyang 15, Seomjin, Samkang, Chilseong, and Yongmun, as a soybean sample Jangyeobkong and Hwangkeumkong, as a barley sample Olbori and Salbori, and as a wheat sample Eunpa and Guru were selected, respectively. The physical properties of the grain samples were determined at four levels of moisture content and ten or fifteen replications were run at each moisture content level and each variety. The results of this study are summarized as follows; 1. In comparison of the surface area and the volume of the 0.0375m diameter-sphere measured in this study with the calculated values by the formula the percent error between them showed least values of 0.65% and 0.77% at the rotational degree interval of 15 degree respectively. 2. The statistical test(t-test) results of the physical properties between the types of rough rice, and between the varieties of soybean and wheat indicated that there were significant difference at the 5% level between them. 3. The physical dimensions varied linearly with the moisture content, and the ratios of length to thickness (L/T) and of width to thickness (W/T) in rough rice decreased with increase of moisture content, while increased in soybean, but uniform tendency of the ratios in barley and wheat was not shown. In all of the sample grains except Olbori, sphericity decreased with increase of moisture content. 4. Over the experimental moisture levels, the surface area and the volume were in the ranges of about $45{\sim}51{\times}10^{-6}m^2$, $25{\sim}30{\times}10^{-9}m^3$ for Japonica-type rough rice, about $42{\sim}47{\times}10^{-6}m^2$, $21{\sim}26{\times}10^{-9}m^3$ for Indica${\times}$Japonica type rough rice, about $188{\sim}200{\times}10^{-6}m^2$, $277{\sim}300{\times}10^{-9}m^3$ for Jangyeobkong, about $180{\sim}201{\times}10^{-6}m^2$, $190{\sim}253{\times}10^{-9}m^3$ for Hwangkeumkong, about $60{\sim}69{\times}10^{-6}m^2$, $36{\sim}45{\times}10^{-9}m^3$ for Covered barley, about $47{\sim}60{\times}10^{-6}m^2$, $22{\sim}28{\times}10^{-9}m^3$ for Naked barley, about $51{\sim}20{\times}10^{-6}m^2$, $23{\sim}31{\times}10^{-9}m^3$ for Eunpamill, and about $57{\sim}69{\times}10^{-6}m^2$, $27{\sim}34{\times}10^{-9}m^3$ for Gurumill, respectively. 5. The increasing rate of surface area and volume with increase of moisture content was higher in soybean than other sample grains, and that of Japonica-type was slightly higher than Indica${\times}$Japonica type in rough rice. 6. The regression equations of physical dimensions, surface area and volume were developed as a function of moisture content, the exponential equations of surface area and volume were also developed as a function of physical dimensions, and the regression equations of surface area were also developed as a function of volume in all grain samples.

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