Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways

고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발

  • Mun, Sung-Ra (Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Young-Ihn (Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Soo-Beom (Department of Transportation, University of Seoul)
  • Received : 2011.09.23
  • Accepted : 2012.03.19
  • Published : 2012.04.30
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Abstract

Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

사고예측모형은 장래 계획 노선이나 다른 노선에 적용되어 사고를 예측하거나 안전개선사업 및 교통정책의 평가 등에 활용된다. 본 연구에서는 고속도로 본선에 대해 이러한 용도로 활용될 수 있는 사고예측모형을 구축하고자 한다. 또한 자료 구축이 용이한 변수를 선정하여 모형을 쉽게 활용할 수 있도록 하는 것을 기본 목표로 하였다. 모형은 종속변수를 사고건수와 사상자발생사고건수로 하여 사고모형과 사상자발생사고모형을 각각 구축하였다. 모형에 적용된 확률구조는 음이항 분포와 포아송 분포이며, 추정에 의해 적합한 모형을 선별하였다. 국내 고속도로중 주요한 9개 노선을 선정하였고, 시간적으로는 2003~2007년까지 5개년도 자료를 활용하였다. 모형의 설명변수는 교통류 특성을 나타내는 교통량 등의 예측 가능한 변수와 기하구조 요인 등을 적용하였다. 최우추정법에 의한 추정 결과 사고모형의 경우 구간길이, 일교통량, 버스비율, 곡선구간수가 유의한 변수로 추정되었으며 사상자발생사고모형에서는 구간 길이와 일교통량, 버스비율이 유의한 변수로 추정되었다. 모형의 공간적 시간적 전이 가능성을 확인하기 위해 우도비 검정을 수행한 결과, 사고모형은 6차로 이상이나 4차로의 교통류 및 기하구조 특성을 가지는 도로로의 전이가 가능하였다, 반면 사상자발생 사고모형은 모든 도로와 시간대로의 전이가 가능하여, 모형의 활용도가 높게 나타났다. 결과적으로 본 연구에서 구축된 모형은 다른 노선과 장래 계획, 정책 평가 등에 다양하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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