• East Asian mathematical journal
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.277-292
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• 2022

This study investigates the convergence of the optimal consumption and investment policies in a binomial-tree model to those in the continuous-time model of Merton (1969). We provide the convergence in explicit form and show that the convergence rate is of order ∆t, which is the length of time between consecutive time points. We also show by numerical solutions with realistic parameter values that the optimal policies in the binomial-tree model do not differ significantly from those in the continuous-time model for long-term portfolio management with a horizon over 30 years if rebalancing is done every 6 months.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.39-55
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• 2019

Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.

• Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.441-462
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• 2007

As country try expand R&D investment and enhance its efficiency to improve the national competitiveness, research is needed to conduct qualitative enhancement and derive progressive future strategy in relation to the academic information distribution project in scientific technology field. In this study, BSC-based performance indicators were applied to an institute that is the representative of domestic academic information distribution institutes in the field of scientific technology to evaluate project performance, and then to analyze portfolio of using such evaluation results. As for the items of evaluation for the performance indicators of academic information distribution project in the scientific technology field, 12 items that includes information resource quality, information service quality, user satisfaction and economically useful value of academic information from four(4) viewpoints such as information resource, information service, user and economic viewpoints. In the portfolio analysis, it was conducted by performance indicators and by elements of the individual performance indicators as well. Based on the results of performance evaluation and portfolio analysis, the improvement method by viewpoints on academic information distribution project of an institute was suggested.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.1-28
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• 2018

With the growing number of emerging carmakers, automotive parts manufacturers have to penetrate into emerging markets. They can provide large existing carmakers with fully customized parts because of economies scale, but cannot do this for small emerging carmakers due to their small and highly volatile volume order. Once the order by an emerging carmaker is placed, a part manufacturer is exposed to high risks both of decrease in profit margin and high opportunity cost. The platform-based mass customization can be a solution for cost reduction, but the risks of volatility in volume hard to manage. Tackling this issue, we presents a method of optimizing the product portfolio to maximize profits while managing volatility of volume order by emerging carmakers at an affordable level. It is the first robust product portfolio method to keep the scaled deviation of profits at a fixed level under volume order uncertainty. Also, the effect of on the platform-based mass customization on cost is considered. This model can be a building block of conservative market penetration as well as product development strategy while minimizing the financial risks. We conducted an empirical study of a part manufacturer targeting on eighteen automobile manufacturers in North America, Europe and Asia with it powered lift gate.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.152-159
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• 2023

This study endeavors to enrich investment prospects in cryptocurrency by establishing a rationale for investment decisions. The primary objective involves evaluating the predictability of four prominent cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and EOS - and scrutinizing the efficacy of trading strategies developed based on the prediction model. To identify the most effective prediction model for each cryptocurrency annually, we employed three methodologies - AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Prophet - representing traditional statistics and artificial intelligence. These methods were applied across diverse periods and time intervals. The result suggested that Prophet trained on the previous 28 days' price history at 15-minute intervals generally yielded the highest performance. The results were validated through a random selection of 100 days (20 target dates per year) spanning from January 1st, 2018, to December 31st, 2022. The trading strategies were formulated based on the optimal-performing prediction model, grounded in the simple principle of assigning greater weight to more predictable assets. When the forecasting model indicates an upward trend, it is recommended to acquire the cryptocurrency with the investment amount determined by its performance. Experimental results consistently demonstrated that the proposed trading strategy yields higher returns compared to an equal portfolio employing a buy-and-hold strategy. The cryptocurrency trading model introduced in this paper carries two significant implications. Firstly, it facilitates the evolution of cryptocurrencies from speculative assets to investment instruments. Secondly, it plays a crucial role in advancing deep learning-based investment strategies by providing sound evidence for portfolio allocation. This addresses the black box issue, a notable weakness in deep learning, offering increased transparency to the model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.572-577
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• 2008

In order to apply strategic advanced project management to the Korean construction industry, the study conducted a comparative analysis of the project management body of knowledge of the advanced countries such as the USA and Japan as well as Europe. As a result, it was found that the connection to 'execution' of 'strategy' was highlighted as a common main issue in the theoretical background of project management body of knowledge, and strategic planning, which aligns 'program management' based on the integration of multiple project management and operations in single project with 'portfolio management' for selection and concentration, has been emphasized. Accordingly, the study built up the framework for the application of strategic advanced project management for strategic action in the Korean construction industry and proposed the following applicable solutions for implementation into the current Korean construction industry: 1) Innovate global competitiveness by preparing an 'ideology and philosophy' for the strategic action of an organization, 2) Establish a strategic 'environment' in consideration of the culture and structure of an organization, 3) Propose a strategic 'vision' for attaining a realizable goal within an organization, 4) Create an 'investment' on the portfolio in line with the strategy, 5) 'Execute' the program through the portfolio and project management. Lastly, the study brought up strategies for sustainable growth by applying strategic advanced project management to the Korean construction industry with a view to acquiring 'Performance' through the implementation and operation of their integrated system.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.45-57
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• 2004

The purpose of this paper is studying the valuation of option prices in Incomplete markets. A market is said to be incomplete if the given traded assets are insufficient to hedge a contingent claim. This situation occurs, for example, when the underlying stock process follows jump-diffusion processes. Due to the jump part, it is impossible to construct a hedging portfolio with stocks and riskless assets. Contrary to the case of a complete market in which only one equivalent martingale measure exists, there are infinite numbers of equivalent martingale measures in an incomplete market. Our research here is focusing on risk minimizing hedging strategy and its associated minimal martingale measure under the jump-diffusion processes. Based on this risk minimizing hedging strategy, we characterize the dynamics of a risky asset and derive the valuation formula for an option price. The main contribution of this paper is to obtain an analytical formula for a European option price under the jump-diffusion processes using the minimal martingale measure.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.151-157
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• 2010

This paper proposes the Pyramid strategy which is based on the straddle sell. The Pyamid strategy has multi-entry features with starting date and delta parameters. And It is hedged against a loss by mutual trades and dynamic ripples. This paper analyzes the profit and MDD(maximum draw down) of the Pyramid strategy on system trading. The portfolio tool is used for the experiment which is one of the Multicharts' package. The Multicharts is a good trading system of recent years. For the experiment, three call options and three put options are used at october in 2009. Two parameters are used which are the starting date from first October to twentieth October in 2009 and delta from eight percent to fifty percent. As a result, the profit of composite option is about 3 million won. If the strategy starts before the beginning of option month, investors feel uncomfortable because of a large MDD. If a delta belows 20%, it shows high profit and the ratio of profit and MDD builds up a low value. However a low delta makes frequent trades and results in a loss unless increasing entry levels which mean more amount of investment. This work provides a safer trade system than native option trades. It is important how much levels of multi-entry are acceptable. And an amount of investment with appropriate levels of multi-entry is a subject of a future study.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.104 no.2
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• pp.248-253
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• 2015

This study applied the portfolio approach as a means to provide decision-making information for the establishment of the optimal production plan for non-timber products. The target items of non-timber forest product were Chestnut, Jujube, Walnut and Astringent Persimmon. The data used in this study were the annual report of forestry production cost survey which contains the annual production, annual gross income, and annual product cost from 2008 to 2013. These data were used to calculate the expected return of non-timber forest product. The objective function in the portfolio models was to minimize the expected return volatility, called risk and the constrain was to achieve the minimum expected return rate. Results indicated that the production ratio of the nuts and fruits in 2013 was 7% for Chestnut, 20% for Jujube, 5% for Walnut and 68% for Astringent Persimmon. Furthermore, portfolio presented that the production ratio was 10% for Chestnut, 9% for Jujube, 3% for Walnut and 78% for Astringent Persimmon in the near future. The cause was analyzed due to maintain stable production and income of Astringent Persimmon and Chestnut. Meanwhile, the revenue of Walnuts and Jujube was in great variation with relatively higher revenues.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.17
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• pp.135-160
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• 2005

In the 1990s, university environment is changing rapidly(especially, difficulty of student registration which are originated student's decrease and various deregulation) and university get ready for the new ways of management culture. This new ways are management innovation strategies. The purpose of this study is to suggest the direction of effective innovation(to search application possibility of management innovation strategy), solving the problems occurred by the enlargement and change in the environments of universities. From early in the 1990s, korean corporations perform actively many management innovation strategy including benchmarking, restructuring, downsizing, zero-based budgeting, BPR, learn organization and total quality management. But korean most universities performed hardware management innovation strategies such as corporate portfolio restructuring(including outsourcing, M&A, MBO etc.) and organization restructuring. Therefore korean universities have got to concerns about more software management innovation strategy such as total quality management and learn organization. Also we have seen another problems such as that universities try to merely duplicate certain management innovation strategies which are used by another university. rather than to make various effort to adequate their own organizations. In conclusion, korean universities are to play an important roles in the development of knowledge society. The management innovation and individual competence development in the university are required to overcome crisis of university.