• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stochastic volatility

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Characteristics of Stochastic Volatility in Korean Stock Returns (우리나라 주식수익률의 확률변동성 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Kook-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.213-231
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    • 2003
  • This paper uses the Efficient Method of Moments(EMM) of Gallant and Tauchen to estimate continuous-time stochastic volatility diffusion model for the Korean Composite Stock Price Index, sampled daily over $1995\sim2002$. The estimates display non-normality of stock index return, leptokurtic distribution, and stochastic volatility. Funker, this study suggests that two factor stochastic volatility model will be more desirable than one factor stochastic volatility model to estimate daily Korean stock return and also suggests that the stochastic volatility diffusions should allow for Poisson jumps of time-varying intensity.

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Performances of Simple Option Models When Volatility Changes

  • Jung, Do-Sub
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2009
  • In this study, the pricing performances of alternative simple option models are examined by creating a simulated market environment in which asset prices evolve according to a stochastic volatility process. To do this, option prices fully consistent with Heston[9]'s model are generated. Assuming this prices as market prices, the trading positions utilizing the Black-Scholes[4] model, a semi-parametric Corrado-Su[7] model and an ad-hoc modified Black-Scholes model are evaluated with respect to the true option prices obtained from Heston's stochastic volatility model. The simulation results suggest that both the Corrado-Su model and the modified Black-Scholes model perform well in this simulated world substantially reducing the biases of the Black-Scholes model arising from stochastic volatility. Surprisingly, however, the improvements of the modified Black-Scholes model over the Black-Scholes model are much higher than those of the Corrado-Su model.

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Stochastic Volatility Models Using Bayesian Estimation for the Leverage Effect of Dry-bulk Freight Rate (건화물선 운임의 레버리지 효과 대한 확률 변동성 모형을 활용한 베이지안 추정)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sok
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2022
  • In this study, from January 2015 to April 2020, we propose a stochastic volatility model to capture the leverage effect on daily freight yields in the dry cargo market and analyze the freight yields. Estimation involving the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for the leverage effect based on the negative correlation that exists between returns and volatility in stochastic volatility analysis yields similar estimates, and the statistcs indicates significant. That is, the results of the empirical analysis show that the degree of correlation between returns and volatility, and the magnitude and sign of fluctuations differ, which suggests that taking into account the leverage effect in the SV model improves the goodness of fit of the estimates. In addition to the statistical significance of the estimated model's leverage effect, the analysis by log predictive power score presents the estimated results with improved predictive power of the model considering the leveraged effect. These astatistically significant empirical results show that the stochastic volatility model considering the leverage effect is important for freight rate risk modeling in the marine industry.

COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS: EMPIRICAL STUDY ON KOSPI 200 INDEX OPTIONS

  • Moon, Kyoung-Sook;Seon, Jung-Yon;Wee, In-Suk;Yoon, Choong-Seok
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.209-227
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    • 2009
  • We examine a unified approach of calculating the closed form solutions of option price under stochastic volatility models using stochastic calculus and the Fourier inversion formula. In particular, we review and derive the option pricing formulas under Heston and correlated Stein-Stein models using a systematic and comprehensive approach which were derived individually earlier. We compare the empirical performances of the two stochastic volatility models and the Black-Scholes model in pricing KOSPI 200 index options.

Hidden Markov model with stochastic volatility for estimating bitcoin price volatility (확률적 변동성을 가진 은닉마르코프 모형을 통한 비트코인 가격의 변동성 추정)

  • Tae Hyun Kang;Beom Seuk Hwang
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2023
  • The stochastic volatility (SV) model is one of the main methods of modeling time-varying volatility. In particular, SV model is actively used in estimation and prediction of financial market volatility and option pricing. This paper attempts to model the time-varying volatility of the bitcoin market price using SV model. Hidden Markov model (HMM) is combined with the SV model to capture characteristics of regime switching of the market. The HMM is useful for recognizing patterns of time series to divide the regime of market volatility. This study estimated the volatility of bitcoin by using data from Upbit, a cryptocurrency trading site, and analyzed it by dividing the volatility regime of the market to improve the performance of the SV model. The MCMC technique is used to estimate the parameters of the SV model, and the performance of the model is verified through evaluation criteria such as MAPE and MSE.

The First Passage Time of Stock Price under Stochastic Volatility

  • Nguyen, Andrew Loc
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.879-889
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    • 2004
  • This paper gives an approximation to the distribution function of the .rst passage time of stock price when volatility of stock price is modeled by a function of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. It also shows how to obtain the error of the approximation.

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ASYMPTOTIC ANALYSIS FOR PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM UNDER TWO-FACTOR HESTON'S STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL

  • Kim, Jai Heui;Veng, Sotheara
    • East Asian mathematical journal
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2018
  • We study an optimization problem for hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility function under two-factor Heston's stochastic volatility model. It is not possible to obtain an explicit solution because our financial market model is complicated. However, by using asymptotic analysis technique, we find the explicit forms of the approximations of the optimal value function and the optimal strategy for HARA utility function.

Asymptotic computation of Greeks under a stochastic volatility model

  • Park, Sang-Hyeon;Lee, Kiseop
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2016
  • We study asymptotic expansion formulae for numerical computation of Greeks (i.e. sensitivity) in finance. Our approach is based on the integration-by-parts formula of the Malliavin calculus. We propose asymptotic expansion of Greeks for a stochastic volatility model using the Greeks formula of the Black-Scholes model. A singular perturbation method is applied to derive asymptotic Greeks formulae. We also provide numerical simulation of our method and compare it to the Monte Carlo finite difference approach.

PRICING OF QUANTO OPTION UNDER THE HULL AND WHITE STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL

  • Park, Jiho;Lee, Youngrok;Lee, Jaesung
    • Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.615-633
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    • 2013
  • We use a power series expansion method to get an analytic approximation value for the quanto option price under the Hull and White stochastic volatility model, which turns out to be accurate enough by comparing with the simulation prices using Monte Carlo method.

The CUSUM test for stochastic volatility models

  • Kim, Moo-Sup;Lee, Sang-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.1305-1310
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we consider a change point test for stochastic volatility models. By considering the relation between moments of the logarithms of squared returns and the parameters, we construct the cusum test to detect changes of the parameters. We also carry out a simulation study and verify that the proposed test is more powerful than the cusum test proposed by Kokoszka and Leipus (2000).