• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical learning

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Development of a Prediction Model for Personal Thermal Sensation on Logistic Regression Considering Urban Spatial Factors (도시공간적 요인을 고려한 로지스틱 회귀분석 기반 체감더위 예측 모형 개발)

  • Uk-Je SUNG;Hyeong-Min PARK;Jae-Yeon LIM;Yu-Jin SEO;Jeong-Min SON;Jin-Kyu MIN;Jeong-Hee EUM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.81-98
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzed the impact of urban spatial factors on the thermal environment. The personal thermal sensation was set as the unit of thermal environment to analyze its correlation with environmental factors. To collect data on personal thermal sensation, Living Lab was applied, allowing citizens to record their thermal sensation and measure the temperature. Based on the input points of the collected personal thermal sensation, nearby urban spatial elements were collected to build a dataset for statistical analysis. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the impact of each factor on personal thermal sensation. The analysis results indicate that the temperature is influenced by the surrounding spatial environment, showing a negative correlation with building height, greenery rate, and road rate, and a positive correlation with sky view factor. Furthermore, the road rate, sky view factor, and greenery rate, in that order, had a strong impact on perceived heat. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as basic data for assessing the thermal environment to prepare local thermal environment measures in response to climate change.

Development and Application of Creative Education Learning Program Using Creative Thinking Methods (창의적 사고기법을 활용한 창의교육 수업프로그램 개발 및 적용)

  • Han, Shin;Kim, Hyoungbum;Lee, Chang-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.162-174
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    • 2020
  • This study aimed to develop a creative education class program using metaphor, one of the creative thinking techniques, and to examine the effectiveness of the program targeting for randomly sampled 338 students in six middle schools. The creative education class program with the metaphor was developed based on content elements concerning 'astronomy' in 2015 science curriculum revision in South Korea. The program was tested for validity after being modified and supplemented three times by forming a group of experts, and the final version of the program was applied to school education fields during four periods, including block time. To find out the effectiveness of the program and the implementation, creative education class satisfaction test and creative thinking process test were conducted. That is to say, the creative education class satisfaction test was conducted before treatment and the creative thinking process test was implemented both before and after treatment. The results of the study are as follows. First, in this study, the program was developed with the emphasis on students voluntarily and actively participating in creative education programs while utilizing creative thinking methods. Second, the statistical results of the pre- and post-class about the creative education program using the metaphor of creative thinking techniques represented significant results(p<.05). In other words, the two-dependent samples by students' pre-and post-score about the creative education class showed significant statistical test results (p<.05). It turned out that the creative education program using metaphor has had a positive impact on research participants. Third, in regards to the results of the creative education class satisfaction test, 101 out of 338 students(30%) answered 'Strongly Agree' and 137(41%) answered 'Agree', indicating the subjects' satisfaction with the class was high in general. On the other hand, concerning difficulties of the creative class, 137(41%) answered "Lack of time" as the main factor, followed by 98(30%) "Difficulties of problems they were required to solve", 73(22%) answered "Conflicts with friends", and 24(7%) said "Difficulties of contents." These responses were taken into account as considerations for further development of creative education programs.

The Analysis on the Relationship between Firms' Exposures to SNS and Stock Prices in Korea (기업의 SNS 노출과 주식 수익률간의 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Taehwan;Jung, Woo-Jin;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.233-253
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    • 2014
  • Can the stock market really be predicted? Stock market prediction has attracted much attention from many fields including business, economics, statistics, and mathematics. Early research on stock market prediction was based on random walk theory (RWT) and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). According to the EMH, stock market are largely driven by new information rather than present and past prices. Since it is unpredictable, stock market will follow a random walk. Even though these theories, Schumaker [2010] asserted that people keep trying to predict the stock market by using artificial intelligence, statistical estimates, and mathematical models. Mathematical approaches include Percolation Methods, Log-Periodic Oscillations and Wavelet Transforms to model future prices. Examples of artificial intelligence approaches that deals with optimization and machine learning are Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks. Statistical approaches typically predicts the future by using past stock market data. Recently, financial engineers have started to predict the stock prices movement pattern by using the SNS data. SNS is the place where peoples opinions and ideas are freely flow and affect others' beliefs on certain things. Through word-of-mouth in SNS, people share product usage experiences, subjective feelings, and commonly accompanying sentiment or mood with others. An increasing number of empirical analyses of sentiment and mood are based on textual collections of public user generated data on the web. The Opinion mining is one domain of the data mining fields extracting public opinions exposed in SNS by utilizing data mining. There have been many studies on the issues of opinion mining from Web sources such as product reviews, forum posts and blogs. In relation to this literatures, we are trying to understand the effects of SNS exposures of firms on stock prices in Korea. Similarly to Bollen et al. [2011], we empirically analyze the impact of SNS exposures on stock return rates. We use Social Metrics by Daum Soft, an SNS big data analysis company in Korea. Social Metrics provides trends and public opinions in Twitter and blogs by using natural language process and analysis tools. It collects the sentences circulated in the Twitter in real time, and breaks down these sentences into the word units and then extracts keywords. In this study, we classify firms' exposures in SNS into two groups: positive and negative. To test the correlation and causation relationship between SNS exposures and stock price returns, we first collect 252 firms' stock prices and KRX100 index in the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX) from May 25, 2012 to September 1, 2012. We also gather the public attitudes (positive, negative) about these firms from Social Metrics over the same period of time. We conduct regression analysis between stock prices and the number of SNS exposures. Having checked the correlation between the two variables, we perform Granger causality test to see the causation direction between the two variables. The research result is that the number of total SNS exposures is positively related with stock market returns. The number of positive mentions of has also positive relationship with stock market returns. Contrarily, the number of negative mentions has negative relationship with stock market returns, but this relationship is statistically not significant. This means that the impact of positive mentions is statistically bigger than the impact of negative mentions. We also investigate whether the impacts are moderated by industry type and firm's size. We find that the SNS exposures impacts are bigger for IT firms than for non-IT firms, and bigger for small sized firms than for large sized firms. The results of Granger causality test shows change of stock price return is caused by SNS exposures, while the causation of the other way round is not significant. Therefore the correlation relationship between SNS exposures and stock prices has uni-direction causality. The more a firm is exposed in SNS, the more is the stock price likely to increase, while stock price changes may not cause more SNS mentions.

A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

An Analysis of the Use of Media Materials in School Health Education and Related Factors in Korea (학과보건교육에서의 매체활용실태 및 영향요인 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Im;Jung, Hye-Sun;Ahn, Ji-Young;Park, Jung-Young;Park, Eun-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.207-215
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    • 1999
  • The objectives of this study are to explain the use of media materials in school health education with other related factors in elementary, middle, and high schools in Korea. The data were collected by questionnaires from June to September in 1998. The number of subjects were 294 school nurses. The PC-SAS program was used for statistical analysis such as percent distribution, chi-squared test, spearman correlation test, and logistic regression. The use of media materials in health education has become extremely common. Unfortunately, much of the early materials were of poor production quality, reflected low levels of interest, and generally did little to enhance health education programming. A recent trend in media materials is a move away from the fact filled production to a more affective, process-oriented approach. There is an obvious need for health educators to use high-quality, polished productions in order to counteract the same levels of quality used by commercial agencies that often promote "unhealthy" lifestyles. Health educators need to be aware of the advantages and disadvantages of the various forms of media. Selecting media materials should be based on more than cost, availability, and personal preference. Selection should be based on the goal of achieving behavioral objectives formulated before the review process begins. The decision to use no media materials rather than something of dubious quality usually be the right decision. Poor-quality, outdated, or boring materials will usually have a detrimental effect on the presentation. Media materials should be viewed as vehicles to enhance learning, not products that will stand in isolation. Process of materials is an essential part of the educational process. The major results were as follows : 1. The elementary schools used the materials more frequently. But the production rate of media materials was not enough. The budget was too small for a wide use of media materials in school health education. These findings suggest that all schools have to increase the budget of health education programs. 2. Computers offer an incredibly diverse set of possibilities for use in health education, ranging from complicated statistical analysis to elementary-school-level health education games. But the use rate of this material was not high. The development of related software is essential. Health educators would be well advised to develop a basic operating knowledge of media equipment. 3. In this study, the most effective materials were films in elementary school and videotapes in middle and high school. Film tends to be a more emotive medium than videotape. The difficulties of media selection involved the small amount of extant educational materials. Media selection is a multifaceted process and should be based on a combination of sound principles. 4. The review of material use following student levels showed that the more the contents were various, the more the use rate was high. 5. Health education videotapes and overhead projectors proved the most plentiful and widest media tools. The information depicted was more likely to be current. As a means to display both text and graphic information, this instructional medium has proven to be both effective and enduring. 6. An analysis of how effective the quality of school nurse and school use of media materials shows a result that is not complete (p=0.1113). But, the budget of health education is a significant variable. The increase of the budget therefore is essential to effective use of media materials. From these results it is recommended that various media materials be developed and be wide used.

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The Intelligent Determination Model of Audience Emotion for Implementing Personalized Exhibition (개인화 전시 서비스 구현을 위한 지능형 관객 감정 판단 모형)

  • Jung, Min-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.39-57
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    • 2012
  • Recently, due to the introduction of high-tech equipment in interactive exhibits, many people's attention has been concentrated on Interactive exhibits that can double the exhibition effect through the interaction with the audience. In addition, it is also possible to measure a variety of audience reaction in the interactive exhibition. Among various audience reactions, this research uses the change of the facial features that can be collected in an interactive exhibition space. This research develops an artificial neural network-based prediction model to predict the response of the audience by measuring the change of the facial features when the audience is given stimulation from the non-excited state. To present the emotion state of the audience, this research uses a Valence-Arousal model. So, this research suggests an overall framework composed of the following six steps. The first step is a step of collecting data for modeling. The data was collected from people participated in the 2012 Seoul DMC Culture Open, and the collected data was used for the experiments. The second step extracts 64 facial features from the collected data and compensates the facial feature values. The third step generates independent and dependent variables of an artificial neural network model. The fourth step extracts the independent variable that affects the dependent variable using the statistical technique. The fifth step builds an artificial neural network model and performs a learning process using train set and test set. Finally the last sixth step is to validate the prediction performance of artificial neural network model using the validation data set. The proposed model is compared with statistical predictive model to see whether it had better performance or not. As a result, although the data set in this experiment had much noise, the proposed model showed better results when the model was compared with multiple regression analysis model. If the prediction model of audience reaction was used in the real exhibition, it will be able to provide countermeasures and services appropriate to the audience's reaction viewing the exhibits. Specifically, if the arousal of audience about Exhibits is low, Action to increase arousal of the audience will be taken. For instance, we recommend the audience another preferred contents or using a light or sound to focus on these exhibits. In other words, when planning future exhibitions, planning the exhibition to satisfy various audience preferences would be possible. And it is expected to foster a personalized environment to concentrate on the exhibits. But, the proposed model in this research still shows the low prediction accuracy. The cause is in some parts as follows : First, the data covers diverse visitors of real exhibitions, so it was difficult to control the optimized experimental environment. So, the collected data has much noise, and it would results a lower accuracy. In further research, the data collection will be conducted in a more optimized experimental environment. The further research to increase the accuracy of the predictions of the model will be conducted. Second, using changes of facial expression only is thought to be not enough to extract audience emotions. If facial expression is combined with other responses, such as the sound, audience behavior, it would result a better result.

Investigating Dynamic Mutation Process of Issues Using Unstructured Text Analysis (부도예측을 위한 KNN 앙상블 모형의 동시 최적화)

  • Min, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.139-157
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    • 2016
  • Bankruptcy involves considerable costs, so it can have significant effects on a country's economy. Thus, bankruptcy prediction is an important issue. Over the past several decades, many researchers have addressed topics associated with bankruptcy prediction. Early research on bankruptcy prediction employed conventional statistical methods such as univariate analysis, discriminant analysis, multiple regression, and logistic regression. Later on, many studies began utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as inductive learning, neural networks, and case-based reasoning. Currently, ensemble models are being utilized to enhance the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification involves combining multiple classifiers to obtain more accurate predictions than those obtained using individual models. Ensemble learning techniques are known to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Base classifiers in the ensemble must be as accurate and diverse as possible in order to enhance the generalization ability of an ensemble model. Commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers include bagging, boosting, and random subspace. The random subspace method selects a random feature subset for each classifier from the original feature space to diversify the base classifiers of an ensemble. Each ensemble member is trained by a randomly chosen feature subspace from the original feature set, and predictions from each ensemble member are combined by an aggregation method. The k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier is robust with respect to variations in the dataset but is very sensitive to changes in the feature space. For this reason, KNN is a good classifier for the random subspace method. The KNN random subspace ensemble model has been shown to be very effective for improving an individual KNN model. The k parameter of KNN base classifiers and selected feature subsets for base classifiers play an important role in determining the performance of the KNN ensemble model. However, few studies have focused on optimizing the k parameter and feature subsets of base classifiers in the ensemble. This study proposed a new ensemble method that improves upon the performance KNN ensemble model by optimizing both k parameters and feature subsets of base classifiers. A genetic algorithm was used to optimize the KNN ensemble model and improve the prediction accuracy of the ensemble model. The proposed model was applied to a bankruptcy prediction problem by using a real dataset from Korean companies. The research data included 1800 externally non-audited firms that filed for bankruptcy (900 cases) or non-bankruptcy (900 cases). Initially, the dataset consisted of 134 financial ratios. Prior to the experiments, 75 financial ratios were selected based on an independent sample t-test of each financial ratio as an input variable and bankruptcy or non-bankruptcy as an output variable. Of these, 24 financial ratios were selected by using a logistic regression backward feature selection method. The complete dataset was separated into two parts: training and validation. The training dataset was further divided into two portions: one for the training model and the other to avoid overfitting. The prediction accuracy against this dataset was used to determine the fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. The validation dataset was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the final model. A 10-fold cross-validation was implemented to compare the performances of the proposed model and other models. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, the classification accuracy of the proposed model was compared with that of other models. The Q-statistic values and average classification accuracies of base classifiers were investigated. The experimental results showed that the proposed model outperformed other models, such as the single model and random subspace ensemble model.

Effect of Music activitics using audition on Music Aptitude development for Kindergarten Children (오디에이션 음악활동이 유치원 아동의 음악소질 향상에 미치는 영향)

  • Rho, Joohee
    • Journal of Music and Human Behavior
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.11-32
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    • 2004
  • According to Edwin Gordon(1987, 1997, 2003), music aptitude is a product of interaction of innate potential and early environmental experiences. He referred to music aptitude of children up to nine years of age as developmental music aptitude which fluctuates due to musical environment. Music aptitude stabilizes at age nine, and the music aptitude after age nine is called "stabilized music aptitude". This research is to examine Gorden's hypothesis that the younger a child receives music education, the higher music aptitude. Also, this research is to experiment the effect of Audiation activities developed in Audie Music Curriculum on music aptitude. The researcher and another Audie teacher as a co-teacher guided children together for 30 minutes once a week. The pedagogy guidelines for informal guidance in music learning theory were kept throughout the classes. Also, Audie's teaching method which had been developed for Korean Kindergarten educational environment was also applied. Five-year-old subjects in Experimental group 1 experienced the Audie Music Curriculum of one year; five-year-old subjects in Experimental group 2 experienced it for two years. Primary Measures of Music Audiation was administered three times during their last year of Kindergarten. Subjects in the Control groups, one examined at the beginning and the other at the end of their last year in Kindergarten, received no Audie instruction. There was no significant difference in tonal aptitude, but there was significant difference in rhythmic aptitude(p< .05) among the experiemental groups. Because both Experimental groups showed statistical significance (p< .001) in the music aptitude increase during their academic years, the significant differences of the year-end music aptitude between control group and experimental groups were the expected result.

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A Research in Applying Big Data and Artificial Intelligence on Defense Metadata using Multi Repository Meta-Data Management (MRMM) (국방 빅데이터/인공지능 활성화를 위한 다중메타데이터 저장소 관리시스템(MRMM) 기술 연구)

  • Shin, Philip Wootaek;Lee, Jinhee;Kim, Jeongwoo;Shin, Dongsun;Lee, Youngsang;Hwang, Seung Ho
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2020
  • The reductions of troops/human resources, and improvement in combat power have made Korean Department of Defense actively adapt 4th Industrial Revolution technology (Artificial Intelligence, Big Data). The defense information system has been developed in various ways according to the task and the uniqueness of each military. In order to take full advantage of the 4th Industrial Revolution technology, it is necessary to improve the closed defense datamanagement system.However, the establishment and usage of data standards in all information systems for the utilization of defense big data and artificial intelligence has limitations due to security issues, business characteristics of each military, anddifficulty in standardizing large-scale systems. Based on the interworking requirements of each system, data sharing is limited through direct linkage through interoperability agreement between systems. In order to implement smart defense using the 4th Industrial Revolution technology, it is urgent to prepare a system that can share defense data and make good use of it. To technically support the defense, it is critical to develop Multi Repository Meta-Data Management (MRMM) that supports systematic standard management of defense data that manages enterprise standard and standard mapping for each system and promotes data interoperability through linkage between standards which obeys the Defense Interoperability Management Development Guidelines. We introduced MRMM, and implemented by using vocabulary similarity using machine learning and statistical approach. Based on MRMM, We expect to simplify the standardization integration of all military databases using artificial intelligence and bigdata. This will lead to huge reduction of defense budget while increasing combat power for implementing smart defense.

The impacts of the experince of donation for education to improve the teaching efficacy of pre-technology teacher with Invent touring activity (발명체험 교육기부활동이 예비기술교사의 교수 효능감에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Yu-Hyun;Lim, Yun-Jin;Lee, Eun-Sang;Lee, Dong-Won
    • 대한공업교육학회지
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.156-175
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to verify that the impacts of experience of donation for education to improve the teaching efficacy of pre-technology teacher. The Invention experience of donation for education was performed with Invent-touring sponsored by Chunnam National University Invention Education Center for Teachers and was included by development of creative problem solving program, program execution and evaluation. Research participants were Technology education Majors and minors 20 students. The active locations were D children community center, K alternative school, D Elementary School and D middle school. For the study, various literature researches were reviewed intensively about donation for education and teaching efficacy. The instrument for the study was the modified STEBI(Science Teaching Efficacy Beliefs Instrument) for technology education by 3 experts. This study was designed by single group pre and post test design (One-Group Pretest-Posttest Design) and was conducted by the pre-test and post-test. Check the reliability of the tool was conducted with Cronbach ${\alpha}$ coefficient analysis, pre-test 0.840, post-test 0.746. The analysis of data from the 5% significance level, paired sample t-test was performed using the SPSS 19.0 statistical tool. The results were as follows: 1. Teaching efficacy of pre-technology teachers who participated in the invention experience for educational donation technology has improved. 72. The qualitative study was performed by the interviews with students who participated in. Humanism was positively change and learning opportunity was provided to develop the competence of technology education teacher. Based upon the conclusion of this study, the donation activity for invention education need to use learning strategies for pre-technology teacher to improve teaching efficacy.