• 제목/요약/키워드: Statistical decision

검색결과 945건 처리시간 0.024초

교환역설과 합리적 의사결정 (Exchange paradox and rational decision)

  • 채경철;안창원
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.203-214
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    • 1996
  • 이 글에서는, 최근 논란이 계속되고 있는 교환역설문제의 진상을 규명하고, 교환문제에서는 베이지안 의사결정이 항상 유리함을 보인다. 아울러, 교환문제를 불확실성하에서의 합리적 의사결정문제로 해석한다.

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실업계 고등학생의 자아정체감 상태에 따른 진로탐색 및 진로결정 분석 (An Analysis of Career Exploration and Career Decision-making by Identity Statuses of Vocational High School Students)

  • 박성미
    • 수산해양교육연구
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze of career exploration and career decision-making by identity statuses(diffusion, foreclosure, moratorium, achievement) of vocational high school students. The research questions were formulated as follows. (1) Is there a difference in identity statuses by level of the career exploration? (2) Is there a difference in identity statuses by level of the career decision-making? (3) How much identity statuses-identity diffusion, identity foreclosure, identity moratorium, identity achievement-effect to the career exploration and career decision-making? 255 vocational high school students in Pusan were sampled. For the statistical analysis, Oneway, analysis of covariance structure by AMOS 4.0 was applied. The results of the study were as follows. (1) The identity diffusion was low in the level of career exploration, but the identity moratorium and achievement were high in the level of career exploration. (3) The identity diffusion was low in the level of career decision-making, but the identity achievement was high in the level of career decision-making. (4) The identity diffusion effected to negatively career exploration and career decision-making, identity foreclosure effected to low positively career exploration and career decision-making, identity moratorium effected to positively career exploration but negatively career decision-making, identity achievement effected to positively career exploration and career decision-making.

구속영장발부 여부에 관한 통계모형 (A Statistical Model for Decisions on Arrest Warrants)

  • 김정훈;이나래;이계민
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제23권6호
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    • pp.1225-1234
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    • 2010
  • 구속영장 기각시 그 기각사유로 단순히 도주 및 증거인멸 우려가 없다고만 기재되는 경우가 대부분이다. 이로 인해 사건의 어떤 측면이 구속영장발부에 영향을 미쳤는지 전혀 알 수 없고, 구속영장을 발부하는 정확한 기준이 무엇인지에 대해 끊임없이 제기되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 창원지방검찰청 진주지청에서 2006-2008년의 3개년도 영장청구자료를 범죄 유형에 따라 7가지로 분류하고 각 범죄별로 구속영장 기각 여부를 결정하는 변수를 알아보고자 한다. 7대 범주별 교차분석을 통하여 구속영장 기각 여부에 대한 통계모형을 다루었다.

원자력 발전소 사고 예측 모형과 병합한 최적 운행중지 결정 모형 (Deciding the Optimal Shutdown Time Incorporating the Accident Forecasting Model)

  • 양희중
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제41권4호
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    • pp.171-178
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the continuing operation of nuclear power plants has become a major controversial issue in Korea. Whether to continue to operate nuclear power plants is a matter to be determined considering many factors including social and political factors as well as economic factors. But in this paper we concentrate only on the economic factors to make an optimum decision on operating nuclear power plants. Decisions should be based on forecasts of plant accident risks and large and small accident data from power plants. We outline the structure of a decision model that incorporate accident risks. We formulate to decide whether to shutdown permanently, shutdown temporarily for maintenance, or to operate one period of time and then periodically repeat the analysis and decision process with additional information about new costs and risks. The forecasting model to predict nuclear power plant accidents is incorporated for an improved decision making. First, we build a one-period decision model and extend this theory to a multi-period model. In this paper we utilize influence diagrams as well as decision trees for modeling. And bayesian statistical approach is utilized. Many of the parameter values in this model may be set fairly subjective by decision makers. Once the parameter values have been determined, the model will be able to present the optimal decision according to that value.

Channel Statistical MAC Protocol for Cognitive Radio

  • Xiang, Gao;Zhu, Wenmin;Park, Hyung-Kun
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.40-44
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    • 2010
  • opportunistic spectrum access (OSA) allows unlicensed users to share licensed spectrum in space and time with no or little interference to primary users, with bring new research challenges in MAC design. We propose a cognitive MAC protocol using statistical channel information and selecting appropriate idle channel for transmission. The protocol based on the CSMA/CA, exploits statistics of spectrum usage for decision making on channel access. Idle channel availability, spectrum hole sufficiency and available channel condition will be included in algorithm statistical information. The model include the control channel and data channel, the transmitter negotiates with receiver on transmission parameters through control channel, statistical decision results (successful rate of transmission) from exchanged transmission parameters of control channel should pass the threshold and decide the data transmission with spectrum hole on data channel. A dynamical sensing range as a important parameter introduced to maintain the our protocol performance. The proposed protocol's simulation will show that proposed protocol does improve the throughput performance via traditional opportunistic spectrum access MAC protocol.

Multi-Channel MAC Protocol Using Statistical Channel Utilization for Cognitive Networks

  • Xiang, Gao;Zhu, Wen-Min;Park, Hyung-Kun
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.273-276
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    • 2010
  • Opportunistic spectrum access (OSA) allows unlicensed users to share licensed spectrum in space and time with no or little interference to primary users, with bring new research challenges in MAC design. We propose a cognitive MAC protocol using statistical channel information and selecting appropriate idle channel for transmission. The protocol based on the CSMA/CA, exploits statistics of spectrum usage for decision making on channel access. Idle channel availability, spectrum hole sufficiency and available channel condition will be included in algorithm statistical information. The model include the control channel and data channel, the transmitter negotiates with receiver on transmission parameters through control channel, statistical decision results (successful rate of transmission) from exchanged transmission parameters of control channel should pass the threshold and decide the data transmission with spectrum hole on data channel. The proposed protocol's simulation will show that proposed protocol does improve the throughput performance via traditional opportunistic spectrum access MAC protocol.

Statistical Methodologies for Scaling Factor Implementation: Part 1. Overview of Current Scaling Factor Method for Radioactive Waste Characterization

  • Kim, Tae-Hyeong;Park, Junghwan;Lee, Jeongmook;Kim, Junhyuck;Kim, Jong-Yun;Lim, Sang Ho
    • 방사성폐기물학회지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.517-536
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    • 2020
  • The radionuclide inventory in radioactive waste from nuclear power plants should be determined to secure the safety of final repositories. As an alternative to time-consuming, labor-intensive, and destructive radiochemical analysis, the indirect scaling factor (SF) method has been used to determine the concentrations of difficult-to-measure radionuclides. Despite its long history, the original SF methodology remains almost unchanged and now needs to be improved for advanced SF implementation. Intense public attention and interest have been strongly directed to the reliability of the procedures and data regarding repository safety since the first operation of the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste disposal facility in Gyeongju, Korea. In this review, statistical methodologies for SF implementation are described and evaluated to achieve reasonable and advanced decision-making. The first part of this review begins with an overview of the current status of the scaling factor method and global experiences, including some specific statistical issues associated with SF implementation. In addition, this review aims to extend the applicability of SF to the characterization of large quantities of waste from the decommissioning of nuclear facilities.

통계적 모델 기반의 음성 검출기를 위한 변별적 가중치 학습 (Discriminative Weight Training for a Statistical Model-Based Voice Activity Detection)

  • 강상익;조규행;박승섭;장준혁
    • 한국음향학회지
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    • 제26권5호
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    • pp.194-198
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    • 2007
  • 본 논문에서는 음성의 통계적 모델에 기반한 음성검출기의 성능향상을 위해 변별적 가중치 학습(discriminative weight training) 기반의 최적화된 우도비 테스트(Likelihood Ratio Test, LRT)를 제안한다. 먼저, 기존의 통계모델기반의 음성검출기를 분석하고, 이를 기반으로 MCE(minimum classification error)방법을 도입하여, 각 주파수 채널별로 다른 가중치를 가지는 우도비 기반의 음성검출 결정법(decision rule)을 제시한다. 제안된 알고리즘은 비정상(non-stationary)잡음환경에서 기존의 동일 가중치를 가지는 기하 평균 기반의 음성검출기와 비교하였으며, 우수한 성능을 보인다.

적응형 문턱값을 가지는 2차 조건 사후 최대 확률을 이용한 통계적 모델 기반의 음성 검출기 (Statistical Model-Based Voice Activity Detection Using the Second-Order Conditional Maximum a Posteriori Criterion with Adapted Threshold)

  • 김상균;장준혁
    • 한국음향학회지
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.76-81
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    • 2010
  • 본 논문에서는 음성의 통계적 모델에 기반한 음성 검출기 (voice activity detection, VAD)의 성능 향상을 위해 2차 조건 사후 최대 확률 (second-order conditional maximum a posteriori, second-order CMAP)기법을 적용한 우도비 테스트 (likelihood ratio test, LRT)를 제안한다. 제안된 알고리즘은, 기존의 통계적 모델에 기반한 음성 검출기와 CMAP 기반의 음성 검출기를 분석한 다음, 직전 2 프레임에서 음성의 존재와 부재에 대한 조건부 확률에 따라 실시간으로 적응형 문턱값을 구하여 기하 평균한 우도비와 비교하는 음성검출 결정법 (decision rule)을 제시한다. 제안된 알고리즘을 비정상 (non-stationary) 잡음환경에서 기존의 통계적 모델에 기반한 음성 검출기, CMAP 기반의 음성 검출기와 비교하였으며, 향상된 성능을 보였다.