Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering (산업경영시스템학회지)

Society of Korea Industrial and System Engineering (한국산업경영시스템학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Deciding the Optimal Shutdown Time Incorporating the Accident Forecasting Model

원자력 발전소 사고 예측 모형과 병합한 최적 운행중지 결정 모형

  • Received : 2018.11.01
  • Accepted : 2018.12.12
  • Published : 2018.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Recently, the continuing operation of nuclear power plants has become a major controversial issue in Korea. Whether to continue to operate nuclear power plants is a matter to be determined considering many factors including social and political factors as well as economic factors. But in this paper we concentrate only on the economic factors to make an optimum decision on operating nuclear power plants. Decisions should be based on forecasts of plant accident risks and large and small accident data from power plants. We outline the structure of a decision model that incorporate accident risks. We formulate to decide whether to shutdown permanently, shutdown temporarily for maintenance, or to operate one period of time and then periodically repeat the analysis and decision process with additional information about new costs and risks. The forecasting model to predict nuclear power plant accidents is incorporated for an improved decision making. First, we build a one-period decision model and extend this theory to a multi-period model. In this paper we utilize influence diagrams as well as decision trees for modeling. And bayesian statistical approach is utilized. Many of the parameter values in this model may be set fairly subjective by decision makers. Once the parameter values have been determined, the model will be able to present the optimal decision according to that value.

Keywords

References

  1. Aitchison, J. and Dunsmore, I.R., Statistical Prediction Analysis, Cambridge University Press, 1975.
  2. Bak, S.-H. et al., Study on Detection Technique for Cochlodinium polykrikoides Red tide using Logistic Regression Model and Decision Tree Model, Korea Institute of Electronic Communication Science, 2018, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 777-786.
  3. Choi, C.K. and Jang, J.H., Study of Taiwan's Nuclear Power Plant based on Advocacy Coalition Framework, Korea Public Administration Quarterly, 2015, Vol. 27, pp. 673-690.
  4. Ha, K.M., A Study on How to Enhance Nuclear Power Plants' Emergency Management, The Korean Association for Local Government Studies, 2017, pp. 1-16,
  5. Jeong, M.G., A Study on the Big Data Modeling and Analysis of Natural Disaster-Oriented Safety Index, Thesis, Pukyong National University, 2018.
  6. Ju, R.-J., Analysis of National Economic Effects of Nuclear Power Plants-Based on the unit No.5,6 of Shin- Kori Nuclear Power Plant, Korean Association of Public Finance, Conference, 2017, pp. 1-27.
  7. Kim, H.-H. and Kim, H.J., A Comparison of Fund-Operational Decision Making in Long-Term Car Rental Business Using Optimization, Korean Production and Operations Management Society, 2018, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 189-208.
  8. Kim, J.E. et al, A study on the Establishment of the Fire Protection Program for Permanent Shutdown and Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plant, Korean Institute of Fire Science & Engineering, 2018, pp. 107-108.
  9. Kim, K.H., The Conflicts and Awareness of Residents around Nuclear Power Plant : Case Study in the Surrounding Area of the Wolsong Nuclear Power Plant., Thesis, Daegu Catholic University, 2018.
  10. Kim, S.W. and Kim, G. Y., Flood-Disaster Safety Evaluation of Korean Local Governments Using Analytic Network Process, The Korean Development Association, 2012, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 1-14.
  11. Lee, D.D. and Son, I.C., Evaluation of Overseas Strategy of Nuclear Power plant Decommissioning, Korean Society of Thermal Environmental Energies, 2016, pp.187-190.
  12. Lee, D.W. et al., The effects of Trust in Government on Risk Perception and the Acceptance of Policies for high-rish Facilities in South Korea, Korean Public Administration Revies, 2018, Vol. 52, pp. 229-257. https://doi.org/10.18333/KPAR.2018.52.1.229
  13. Lee, H.S., Strategies for Improving the Safety and Relief Management in the Disposal of Decommissioning Waste from Nuclear Power Plants, Korean Studies Information Services System, 2017, pp. 1-216.
  14. Rhee, Y.J., Kim, K.H., Choi, H.J., and Park, J.Y., Implementation of Environmental Impact Assessment for the Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plant, Research report, Korea Environmental Institute, 2018, pp. 1-84.
  15. Ryu, K.H., The EFASIT Model for an Efficient Decision Making, Thesis, Daegu Catholic University, 2018.
  16. Shachter, R.D., Evaluating Influence Diagrams, Operations Research, 1987, Vol. 34, No. 26, pp. 871-882.
  17. Shin, W.W. and Shon, C.B., An Analysis on the Safety Accident Network and Risk Level of construction Machine and Equipment, Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction, 2018, Vol. 5, No. 34, pp. 35-42.
  18. Yang, H.J., Forecasting Accidents by Transforming Event Trees into Influence Diagrams, Journal of Society of Korea Industrial and Systems Engineering, 2006, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 72-75.
  19. Yang, H.J., Predicting Nuclear Power Plant Accidents in Korea, IE Interfaces, 1993, Vol.6, pp. 79-89.
  20. Yang, H.J., Safety Analysis using Bayesian Approach, Journal of the Korea safety Management & Science, 2007, Vol. 9, No. 5, pp. 1-5.
  21. Yang, K.Y. and Yoon, Y.W., A Study on the Selection of Construction Method by Decision Making Method, Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction, 2002, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 17-24. https://doi.org/10.5345/JKIC.2002.2.1.017