• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical Error

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Effect of Firm's Activities on Their Performances (혁신활동이 기업의 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Kwang-Doo;Hong, Woon-Sun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.373-404
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of research is to reveal the effect of innovation to enterprises' economic performance. The kind of this study has begun since 1960s and lively progressed then. The fmal theoretical result of the effect of innovation to the performance came positive in compare to the mixed results came out in empirical analysis. There are several reason why empirical results are different to the theoretical results. However the major factor is that of using imperfect statistics and inappropriateness of analysis method. This study used a population (1990~2008) provided from Korean Intellectual Property Office, KIPO for patent and also used a population (1990~2008) provided from Korea Investors Service, KIS for research and development. The contribution of this study is enormous statistical analysis. This study used principal component analysis made innovativeness index for appropriate index sampling, and made effort to minimize the error by using appropriate quantile regression for both to panel analysis and rapidly developed company analysis. Dividing the final results into two parts, the growth and the profit, the effect of technological innovation to the firm's growth is not significant to the panel analysis but heavily significant to the upper 10% of high growth firm. By classifying large company and small and medium enterprise, it is significant to upper 10% of high growth firm for large company and generally significant to small and medium enterprise. But for both lower 10% of low growth firms and 25% of low ranking firms are negatively effected, and for high growth firms larger than the medians are positively effected. Especially for upper 10% of high growth firms are mostly effected. It is more effective to the profitability than the growth. The effect to the profit for every enterprises are not significant, but effected significant to the larger enterprises than 25% of low ranking enterprises especially most effective to the upper 10% of high-profit enterprises. The analysis for the large company, it was significant and positively effected to the upper 10% of high profit enterprises and 25% of low ranking enterprises, but the negatively effected for the low-profit enterprises. For the small and medium enterprises, it is negatively effected for both 10% of low ranking enterprises and 25% of low ranking enterprises. However it is positively effective and significant for the high ranking enterprises than median, especially for those high growth firms. It is meaningful to recognize significancy by quantile, but more implicative result is to finding more effectiveness to the small and medium enterprises than to the large company.

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Product Recommender Systems using Multi-Model Ensemble Techniques (다중모형조합기법을 이용한 상품추천시스템)

  • Lee, Yeonjeong;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2013
  • Recent explosive increase of electronic commerce provides many advantageous purchase opportunities to customers. In this situation, customers who do not have enough knowledge about their purchases, may accept product recommendations. Product recommender systems automatically reflect user's preference and provide recommendation list to the users. Thus, product recommender system in online shopping store has been known as one of the most popular tools for one-to-one marketing. However, recommender systems which do not properly reflect user's preference cause user's disappointment and waste of time. In this study, we propose a novel recommender system which uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user's preference. The research data is collected from the real-world online shopping store, which deals products from famous art galleries and museums in Korea. The data initially contain 5759 transaction data, but finally remain 3167 transaction data after deletion of null data. In this study, we transform the categorical variables into dummy variables and exclude outlier data. The proposed model consists of two steps. The first step predicts customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in the online shopping store. In this step, we first use logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. We perform above data mining techniques using SAS E-Miner software. In this study, we partition datasets into two sets as modeling and validation sets for the logistic regression and decision trees. We also partition datasets into three sets as training, test, and validation sets for the artificial neural network model. The validation dataset is equal for the all experiments. Then we composite the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. Bagging is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Aggregation" and it composite outputs from several machine learning techniques for raising the performance and stability of prediction or classification. This technique is special form of the averaging method. Bumping is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Umbrella of Model Parameter," and it only considers the model which has the lowest error value. The results show that bumping outperforms bagging and the other predictors except for "Poster" product group. For the "Poster" product group, artificial neural network model performs better than the other models. In the second step, we use the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. We can extract thirty one association rules according to values of Lift, Support, and Confidence measure. We set the minimum transaction frequency to support associations as 5%, maximum number of items in an association as 4, and minimum confidence for rule generation as 10%. This study also excludes the extracted association rules below 1 of lift value. We finally get fifteen association rules by excluding duplicate rules. Among the fifteen association rules, eleven rules contain association between products in "Office Supplies" product group, one rules include the association between "Office Supplies" and "Fashion" product groups, and other three rules contain association between "Office Supplies" and "Home Decoration" product groups. Finally, the proposed product recommender systems provides list of recommendations to the proper customers. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. For this end, we construct the prototype system by using the ASP, Java Script and Microsoft Access. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The participants for the survey are 173 persons who use MSN Messenger, Daum Caf$\acute{e}$, and P2P services. We evaluate the user satisfaction using five-scale Likert measure. This study also performs "Paired Sample T-test" for the results of the survey. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the random selection model with 1% statistical significance level. It means that the users satisfied the recommended product list significantly. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways (고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2012
  • Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

Effect of Different CT Scanner Types and Beam Collimations on Measurements of Three-Dimensional Volume and Hounsfield Units of Artificial Calculus Phantom (인공결석모형물의 부피와 하운스필드값 측정에 대한 전산화단층촬영기기의 타입과 빔 콜리메이션의 영향)

  • Wang, Jihwan;Lee, Heechun
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.495-501
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the differences and reproducibility of Hounsfield unit (HU) value and volume measurements on different computed tomography (CT) scanner types and different collimations by using a gelatin phantom. The phantom consisting of five synthetic simulated calculus spanning diameters from 3.0 mm to 12.0 mm with 100 HU was scanned using a two-channel multi-detector row CT (MDCT) scanner, a four-channel MDCT scanner, and two 64-channel MDCT scanners. For all different scanner types, the thinnest possible collimation and the second thinnest collimation was used. The HU values and volumes of the synthetic simulated calculus were independently measured three times with minimum intervals of 2 weeks and by three experienced veterinary radiologists. ANOVA and Scheff$\acute{e}$ test for the multiple comparison were performed for statistical comparison of the HU values and volumes of the synthetic simulated calculus according to different CT scanner types and different collimations. The reproducibility of the HU value and volume measurements was determined by calculating Cohen's k. The reproducibility of HU value and volume measurements was very good. HU value varied between different CT scanner types, among different beam collimations. However, there was not statistically significant difference. The percent error (PE) decreased as the collimation thickness decreased, but the decrease was statistically insignificant. In addition, no statistically significant difference in the PEs of the different CT scanner types was found. It can be concluded that the CT scanner type insignificantly affects HU value and the volumetric measurement, but that a thinner collimation tends to be more useful for accurate volumetric measurement.

Study on the LOWTRAN7 Simulation of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Using CAGEX Data. (CAGEX 관측자료를 이용한 LOWTRAN7의 대기 복사전달 모의에 대한 조사)

  • 장광미;권태영;박경윤
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.99-120
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    • 1997
  • Solar radiation is scattered and absorbed atmospheric compositions in the atmosphere before it reaches the surface and, then after reflected at the surface, until it reaches the satellite sensor. Therefore, consideration of the radiative transfer through the atmosphere is essential for the quantitave analysis of the satellite sensed data, specially at shortwave region. This study examined a feasibility of using radiative transfer code for estimating the atmospheric effects on satellite remote sensing data. To do this, the flux simulated by LOWTRAN7 is compared with CAGEX data in shortwave region. The CAGEX (CERES/ARM/GEWEX Experiment) data provides a dataset of (1) atmospheric soundings, aerosol optical depth and albedo, (2) ARM(Aerosol Radiation Measurement) radiation flux measured by pyrgeometers, pyrheliometer and shadow pyranometer and (3) broadband shortwave flux simulated by Fu-Liou's radiative transfer code. To simulate aerosol effect using the radiative transfer model, the aerosol optical characteristics were extracted from observed aerosol column optical depth, Spinhirne's experimental vertical distribution of scattering coefficient and D'Almeida's statistical atmospheric aerosols radiative characteristics. Simulation of LOWTRAN7 are performed on 31 sample of completely clear days. LOWTRAN's result and CAGEX data are compared on upward, downward direct, downward diffuse solar flux at the surface and upward solar flux at the top of the atmosphere(TOA). The standard errors in LOWTRAN7 simulation of the above components are within 5% except for the downward diffuse solar flux at the surface(6.9%). The results show that a large part of error in LOWTRAN7 flux simulation appeared in the diffuse component due to scattering mainly by atmispheric aerosol. For improving the accuracy of radiative transfer simulation by model, there is a need to provide better information about the radiative charateristrics of atmospheric aerosols.

Mediation analysis of dietary habits, nutrient intakes, daily life in the relationship between working hours of Korean shift workers and metabolic syndrome : the sixth (2013 ~ 2015) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (교대근무자의 근무시간과 대사증후군의 관계에서 식습관, 영양섭취상태, 일상생활의 매개효과 분석 : 6기 국민건강영양조사 (2013 ~ 2015) 데이터 이용)

  • Kim, Yoona;Kim, Hyeon Hee;Lim, Dong Hoon
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.567-579
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study examined the mediation effects of dietary habits, nutrient intake, daily life in the relationship between the working hours of Korean shift workers and metabolic syndrome. Methods: Data were collected from the sixth (2013-2015) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). The stochastic regression imputation was used to fill missing data. Statistical analysis was performed in Korean shift workers with metabolic syndrome using the SPSS 24 program for Windows and a structural equation model (SEM) using an analysis of moment structure (AMOS) 21.0 package. Results: The model fitted the data well in terms of the goodness of fit index (GFI) = 0.939, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.025, normed fit index (NFI) = 0.917, Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) = 0.984, comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.987, and adjusted goodness of fit index (AGFI) = 0.915. Specific mediation effect of dietary habits (p = 0.023) was statistically significant in the impact of the working hours of shift workers on nutrient intake, and specific mediation effect of daily life (p = 0.019) was statistically significant in the impact of the working hours of shift workers on metabolic syndrome. On the other hand, the dietary habits, nutrient intake and daily life had no significant multiple mediator effects on the working hours of shift workers with metabolic syndrome. Conclusion: The appropriate model suggests that working hours have direct effect on the daily life, which has the mediation effect on the risk of metabolic syndrome in shift workers.

Comparison and Review of GBEF% on the Anterior and Right Lateral Images of Nuclear Hepatobiliary Scan (핵의학 간담도 스캔 시, 전면상과 우측 측면상에서의 담낭박출률에 대한 비교 및 고찰)

  • Lee, Eun-Byeol;Kim, Jae-Il;Do, Yong-Ho;Llm, Jung-Jin;Cho, Sung-Wook;Noh, Gyeong-Woon
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.92-96
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    • 2018
  • Purpose In case of nuclear medical hepatobiliary scan, To quantitatively evaluate contractility of a gallbladder, gallbladder ejection fraction (GBEF%) is calculated from anterior images using fatty meal. However, when a gallbladder and other organs overlap on an anterior image, the gallbladder ejection fraction is not accurately evaluated. In order to reduce this error, the objective of our study was to figure out whether there is a significant difference in GBEF% calculated from the anterior and right lateral images. Materials and Methods After intravenous injection of 99mTc-Mebrofenin 370 MBq to randomly 50 patients who visited our hospital, we started to examine nuclear hepatobiliary scan. Using skylight(Philips, United States), we acquired anterior and right lateral image at 10 minutes, 20 minutes, 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 90minutes after injection. Using images at 60 and 90 minutes, gallbladder ejection fraction (GBEF%) was calculated from the anterior and right lateral images using JETstream workspace. For drawing more accurate ROI, CT images were referenced and 4 radiologists calculated the GBEF% in the same image and calculated the average value. We assessed whether there was a significant difference in GBEF% calculated from the anterior and right lateral images using SPSS program(Statistical Package for the Social Science, SPSS Ver.18 Inc. USA). Results About randomly 50 patients, the average value of the GBEF% calculated from the anterior image was 63.212 and the average value of the GBEF% calculated from the right lateral image was 62.666. GBEF% decreased 0.433% on the right lateral image compared with anterior image. Result of paired sample t-test, p value is over 0.05. So, there was no significant difference in GBEF% calculated from the anterior and right lateral images. Conclusion In the case that a gallbladder and other organs are not separated on an anteior image, Right lateral image would be better to acquire more accurate GBEF% than using anterior image.

Comparison of the accuracy of intraoral scanner by three-dimensional analysis in single and 3-unit bridge abutment model: In vitro study (단일 수복물과 3본 고정성 수복물 지대치 모델에서 삼차원 분석을 통한 구강 스캐너의 정확도 비교)

  • Huang, Mei-Yang;Son, Keunbada;Lee, Wan-Sun;Lee, Kyu-Bok
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.102-109
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of three types of intraoral scanners and the accuracy of the single abutment and bridge abutment model. Materials and methods: In this study, a single abutment, and a bridge abutment with missing first molar was fabricated and set as the reference model. The reference model was scanned with an industrial three-dimensional scanner and set as reference scan data. The reference model was scanned five times using the three intraoral scanners (CS3600, CS3500, and EZIS PO). This was set as the evaluation scan data. In the three-dimensional analysis (Geomagic control X), the divided abutment region was selected and analyzed to verify the scan accuracy of the abutment. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software (${\alpha}=.05$). The accuracy of intraoral scanners was compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test and post-test was performed using the Pairwise test. The accuracy difference between the single abutment model and the bridge abutment model was analyzed by the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: The accuracy according to the intraoral scanner was significantly different (P < .05). The trueness of the single abutment model and the bridge abutment model showed a statistically significant difference and showed better trueness in the single abutment (P < .05). There was no significant difference in the precision (P = .616). Conclusion: As a result of comparing the accuracy of single and bridge abutments, the error of abutment scan increased with increasing scan area, and the accuracy of bridge abutment model was clinically acceptable in three types of intraoral scanners.

Comparative evaluation of dose according to changes in rectal gas volume during radiation therapy for cervical cancer : Phantom Study (자궁경부암 방사선치료 시 직장가스 용적 변화에 따른 선량 비교 평가 - Phantom Study)

  • Choi, So Young;Kim, Tae Won;Kim, Min Su;Song, Heung Kwon;Yoon, In Ha;Back, Geum Mun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.33
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare and evaluate the dose change according to the gas volume variations in the rectum, which was not included in the treatment plan during radiation therapy for cervical cancer. Materials and methods: Static Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (S-IMRT) using a 9-field and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) using 2 full-arcs were established with treatment planning system on Computed Tomography images of a human phantom. Random gas parameters were included in the Planning Target Volume(PTV) with a maximum change of 2.0 cm in increments of 0.5 cm. Then, the Conformity Index (CI), Homogeneity Index (HI) and PTV Dmax for the target volume were calculated, and the minimum dose (Dmin), mean dose (Dmean) and Maximum Dose (Dmax) were calculated and compared for OAR(organs at risk). For statistical analysis, T-test was performed to obtain a p-value, where the significance level was set to 0.05. Result: The HI coefficients of determination(R2) of S-IMRT and VMAT were 0.9423 and 0.8223, respectively, indicating a relatively clear correlation, and PTV Dmax was found to increase up to 2.8% as the volume of a given gas parameter increased. In case of OAR evaluation, the dose in the bladder did not change with gas volume while a significant dose difference of more than Dmean 700 cGy was confirmed in rectum using both treatment plans at gas volumes of 1.0 cm or more. In all values except for Dmean of bladder, p-value was less than 0.05, confirming a statistically significant difference. Conclusion: In the case of gas generation not considered in the reference treatment plan, as the amount of gas increased, the dose difference at PTV and the dose delivered to the rectum increased. Therefore, during radiation therapy, it is necessary to make efforts to minimize the dose transmission error caused by a large amount of gas volumes in the rectum. Further studies will be necessary to evaluate dose transmission by not only varying the gas volume but also where the gas was located in the treatment field.

Geomagnetic Paleosecular Variation in the Korean Peninsula during the First Six Centuries (기원후 600년간 한반도 지구 자기장 고영년변화)

  • Park, Jong kyu;Park, Yong-Hee
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.611-625
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    • 2022
  • One of the applications of geomagnetic paleo-secular variation (PSV) is the age dating of archeological remains (i.e., the archeomagnetic dating technique). This application requires the local model of PSV that reflects non-dipole fields with regional differences. Until now, the tentative Korean paleosecular variation (t-KPSV) calculated based on JPSV (SW Japanese PSV) has been applied as a reference curve for individual archeomagnetic directions in Korea. However, it is less reliable due to regional differences in the non-dipole magnetic field. Here, we present PSV curves for AD 1 to 600, corresponding to the Korean Three Kingdoms (including the Proto Three Kingdoms) Period, using the results of archeomagnetic studies in the Korean Peninsula and published research data. Then we compare our PSV with the global geomagnetic prediction model and t-KPSV. A total of 49 reliable archeomagnetic directional data from 16 regions were compiled for our PSV. In detail, each data showed statistical consistency (N > 6, 𝛼95 < 7.8°, and k > 57.8) and had radiocarbon or archeological ages in the range of AD 1 to 600 years with less than ±200 years error range. The compiled PSV for the initial six centuries (KPSV0.6k) showed declination and inclination in the range of 341.7° to 20.1° and 43.5° to 60.3°, respectively. Compared to the t-KPSV, our curve revealed different variation patterns both in declination and inclination. On the other hand, KPSV0.6k and global geomagnetic prediction models (ARCH3K.1, CALS3K.4, and SED3K.1) revealed consistent variation trends during the first six centennials. In particular, the ARCH3K.1 showed the best fitting with our KPSV0.6k. These results indicate that contribution of the non-dipole field to Korea and Japan is quite different, despite their geographical proximity. Moreover, the compilation of archeomagnetic data from the Korea territory is essential to build a reliable PSV curve for an age dating tool. Lastly, we double-check the reliability of our KPSV0.6k by showing a good fitting of newly acquired age-controlled archeomagnetic data on our curve.