• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk premium

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The Analysis on the Change of Behaviors of Exchange Rate between Two Countries related to FTA and the Prospects (FTA체결 전.후의 환율행태 변화 분석과 전망)

  • Khoe, Kyung-Il;Sul, Won-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.1043-1051
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    • 2009
  • This study intends to discuss the influence on behaviors of won/dollar exchange rate after a FTA between Korea and US come into effect. The change of behaviors of won/dollar exchange rate has been looked into concerning other countries who have signed a FTA pact with the US, and these examples were compared with that of Korea so as to find similarities and differences. As a result of analyses, behaviors of exchange rate between FTA-pact countries were showed differently. Volatility and risk premium somewhat decreased after the FTA took effect except for Chile. As for Chile, showing intense volatility, foreign exchange risk premium rather increased. It can be concluded that the relationship between volatility and risk premium of individual exchange rate is established and FTA can influence change of these behaviors of exchange rate depending on the situation of individual country. This study will contribute to offer informations to Korea trading companies related to IT that will have to prepare for the uncertainties of change of exchange rate due to FTA between Korea and US.

GDP Linked Bonds and Currency Risk Premiums (GDP 연계채권과 환리스크 프리미엄)

  • Sohn, Kyoung-woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.379-396
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the rational payoff from the standpoint of foreign investors and the government when the government issues GDP-linked bonds to foreign investors. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, the prices of 12 types of GDP-linked bond structures, which are classified according to the calculation cycle of the rate of change of linked GDP, the currency issued, and whether options are embedded, were evaluated. The Fama-French 3-factor model and the GMM-SDF model are used in the asset pricing model, and domestic and overseas investors used different basis assets. Findings - The KRW premium for US investors is estimated to be 43bp on a quarterly basis and 30bp on an annual basis, respectively, meaning that when the government issues bonds in KRW, the interest rate paid to US investors will be reduced by 30bp to 160bp (annually converted). Using the Fama-French 3 factor model, the KRW premium is the risk premium for the US market beta, meaning that if US investors do not intend to invest in US market beta, it is advantageous to receive an additional interest rate by investing in USD-denominated GDP-linked bonds. Korea's GDP- linked bond give US investors diversified investment utility, so they are willing to incorporate Korean GDP-linked bonds even if -150bp of interest is deducted from the structure issued to Korean investors. And as a result of estimating the value of the option through the GDP-linked bond with options that provides a floor for guaranteeing the principal, the value of the option linked to the annual GDP issued in dollars was the lowest. Research implications or Originality - Issuing dollar-denominated GDP-linked bonds linked to annual GDP with the option of guaranteeing the principal by the government is a way to increase investment opportunities for US investors and achieve financial stability of the government.

A Comparative Study of Solvency Margin Regulation System : Focusing on Non-Life Insurance (지급여력제도의 국제적 정합성 연구 - 손해보험을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Hong-Joo;Nam, Sang-Wook;Park, Heung-Chan;Lee, Jae-Seok
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.17
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    • pp.93-125
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    • 2002
  • This paper aims to find a reasonable solvency margin system in non-life insurance industry and also to evaluate the appropriateness of the current solvency margin regulation system in Korea. The current solvency margin system in Korea, based on EU's solvency margin model, was introduced during the 1997 financial crisis. The solvency requirement is not based on non-life insurer's risk, but simply on written premiums. The current solvency margin for general insurance, such as fire, marine, and automobile insurance, is determined by the greater between a premium-based amount and a claim-based amount, where the premium-based solvency margin is calculated by multiplying the net written premium for the preceding year by the premium based solvency margin ratio. Also, the amount of solvency margin for long term insurance is set at 4% of the policy reserve of the long term insurance. Still, there exist many differences between the current solvency margin regulation system in Korea and EU's model. This paper focuses on the rationality of the solvency margin regulation system, and compares the current system in Korea with EU's model and the RBC(Risk Based Capital) system in U.S. and Japan. Finally, this paper suggests a more specific and reasonable solvency margin system to be developed in Korea.

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Variation of Load Management Incentive Considering Prenotification Period (예고기간별 차이를 반영한 부하조정제도 지원금 차등방안)

  • Won, Jong-Ryul
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.61 no.11
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    • pp.1578-1583
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    • 2012
  • There are 3 systems in incentive-based normal load management in Korea; day or hour-ahead, week-ahead, months-ahead. These are originally similar in their operational implementation, but differ in their pre-notification period. Therefore the incentive of these systems should be different according to prenotification period. This is the key problem in implementing these load managements. Customers participating in these load managements feel their economic differences, depending on the risk by prenotification dates. The shorter prenotification period, the more risk take the customers. This paper proposes the method of incentive variation in prenotification difference, by using the theory of financial yield curve, which is used in analysing short and long duration bond interesting rates and is reflecting risk premium in their period.

The Effects of Ecological Cue on Risk Perception in Insurance Buying Situations (보험 구매 상황에서 위험 지각에 영향을 주는 생태학적 단서의 효과)

  • Jeong, Ju-Ri;Lee, Na-Keung;Lee, Young-Ai
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.205-224
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    • 2012
  • How would people who buy an insurance policy respond to a low probability risk with a high future cost? Presented with a scenario describing a low probability accident of a chemical plant, participants in four experiments were asked to rate their perception of the risk and also their intention to buy an insurance of a given premium, an insurance, or a ratio insurance. Participants differently responded only to ratio insurance when rating their perception of risk, not to either premium or insurance. The pattern of results in four experiments converged to the conclusion that ratio insurance, an ecologically valid cue, makes people sensitive to the level of risk expressed in low probabilities of an accident. Our results were consistent with the prediction generated by the ecological cue hypothesis which empathizes the importance of frequency over probability in risk perception (Gigerenzer, 2000).

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A Study on the Efficiency and Information for Future Market of Japan's Frozen Shrimp (일본 냉동새우 선물시장의 효율성과 정보흐름에 관한 연구)

  • Rhee, Byung-Kun;Jeon, Hye-Min;Kim, Ki-Soo
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.51-74
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to ascertain that how the futures market of the Japanese frozen shrimp that is the only fisheries asset all over the world can be efficient. Accordingly, this paper examines efficiency and information flow of the Japanese frozen shrimp market using data from Kansai Commodities Exchange frozen shrimp futures closing prices and spot prices. And then this paper estimates a forward price model using that data. From the model, risk premium is estimated and we could also analyse the future information flow into the futures market which reveals future spot prices. This thesis reached to conclusions as follows: First, the null of zero risk premium is rejected and the value of that is negative. Second, the time pattern of information flow into the futures market is that most of the information on future price arrives within a week and for the last week, most of relevant information is already incorporated. The result of this study contrasts with that of Stockman(1978) about currency futures market of U.S.

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Individual Characteristics Associated with the Market Size Change of Private Health Insurance Premium in Korea (민간의료보험 시장 규모 변동에 영향을 미치는 개인 특성)

  • You, Chang-Hoon;Kang, Sung-Wook;Kwon, Young-Dae
    • The Korean Journal of Health Service Management
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.165-177
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    • 2012
  • This study examined market size of private health insurance premium and individual characteristics associated with the market size change in Korea, using wave 1 (2008) and wave 2 (2009) of Korea Health Panel. The market size was 24.4 trillion Korean won in 2008 and 26.9 trillion in 2009. The increase rate of private health insurance premium among those who were the elderly, single, or the poor was higher than that among their counterpart respectively. Health status and utilization were insignificant in determining the increase rate of private health insurance premium. These findings were more obvious among the uninsured in 2008 than among the insured in 2008. The increase of private health insurance premium in Korea imply the increase of willingness-to-pay for health risk through private sector. The authors suggest policy intervention for accessability to health care for the underprivileged and weak through enlargement of Korean social health insurance benefit.

A M-TYPE RISK MODEL WITH MARKOV-MODULATED PREMIUM RATE

  • Yu, Wen-Guang
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.27 no.5_6
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    • pp.1033-1047
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we consider a m-type risk model with Markov-modulated premium rate. A integral equation for the conditional ruin probability is obtained. A recursive inequality for the ruin probability with the stationary initial distribution and the upper bound for the ruin probability with no initial reserve are given. A system of Laplace transforms of non-ruin probabilities, given the initial environment state, is established from a system of integro-differential equations. In the two-state model, explicit formulas for non-ruin probabilities are obtained when the initial reserve is zero or when both claim size distributions belong to the $K_n$-family, n $\in$ $N^+$ One example is given with claim sizes that have exponential distributions.

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Contingent Valuation Method with a Risk Answering Mechanism (위험응답메커니즘을 포함한 조건부가치평가)

  • Park, Joo Heon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.793-816
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    • 2005
  • This paper proposes a new answering mechanism called RAM (Risk Answering Mechanism) which can be applied to a contingent valuation method. The RAM is derived from the theory of expected utility maximization under the assumption that there exists an uncertainty in a nonmarket good of interest. In RAM, a respondent would accept an uncertain offer only if his or her WTP for the mean of the offer is large enough to exceed the bidding price by more than a risk premium. This is in a striking contrast with a traditional answering mechanism (TAM) in which the WTP is simply compared with the bidding price. Therefore, the TAM would underestimate the WTP by a risk premium without considering the uncertainty a respondent may face. An empirical comparison is made between RAM and TAM using a survey data on the Tong river. It is found that underestimation problem is very serious in the TAM.

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Can Idiosyncratic Volatility Factor be a Risk Factor? (고유변동성 요인에 대한 위험평가)

  • Kim, Sookyung;Byun, Youngtae;Kim, Woohyun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.490-497
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we examined whether common idiosyncratic volatility(CIV), a risk factor for idiosyncratic volatility, can be evaluated as a pricing factor. The sample is listed on the Korea Exchange. The analysis period is 288 months from July 1992 to June 2016. The main results of this study are as follows. First, in the empirical verification of the market excess returns of the testing portfolios, the difference in the return on the CIV factor sensitivity difference was statistically significant. In other words, we confirmed that there is a risk premium for CIV factors. Second, CAPM, FF3 factor model, and FF5 factor model do not explain the risk premium for CIV factors, whereas factor models that add CIV factors explain the risk premium for CIV factors. In other words, the CIV factor can be evaluated in terms of pricing factors.