A M-TYPE RISK MODEL WITH MARKOV-MODULATED PREMIUM RATE

  • Yu, Wen-Guang (School of Statistics and Mathematics, Shandong Economic University)
  • Published : 2009.09.30

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a m-type risk model with Markov-modulated premium rate. A integral equation for the conditional ruin probability is obtained. A recursive inequality for the ruin probability with the stationary initial distribution and the upper bound for the ruin probability with no initial reserve are given. A system of Laplace transforms of non-ruin probabilities, given the initial environment state, is established from a system of integro-differential equations. In the two-state model, explicit formulas for non-ruin probabilities are obtained when the initial reserve is zero or when both claim size distributions belong to the $K_n$-family, n $\in$ $N^+$ One example is given with claim sizes that have exponential distributions.

Keywords

References

  1. H.U. Gerber, The surplus process as a fair game–utiliywise, ASTIN Bulletin 8 (1975), 307-322.
  2. J. Grandell, Aspects of Risk Theory, Springer, Berlin, 1991.
  3. F. Michaud, Estimating the probability of ruin for variable premiums by simulation, ASTIN Bulletin 26(1996), No.1,93-105. https://doi.org/10.2143/AST.26.1.563235
  4. S.S. Petersen, Calculation of ruin probabilities when the premium depends on the current reserve, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal (1990), 147-159.
  5. J.M. Reinhard, On a class of semi-markov risk models obtained as classical risk models in Markovian environment, ASTIN Bulletin XIV (1984), 23-43.
  6. H. Schmidli, Risk theory in an economic environment and Markov precesses, Bulletin of the Swiss Association of Actuaries (1994), 51-70.
  7. B. Sundt and J.L. Teugels, Ruin estimates under interest force, Insurance:Mathematics and Economics 16(1995), 7-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6687(94)00023-8
  8. B. Sundt and J.L. Teugels, The adjustment function in ruin estimates under interest force, Insurance:Mathematics and Economics 19(1997), 85-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6687(96)00012-1
  9. G.C. Taylor, Probability of ruin with variable premium rate, Scandinavian Journal (1980), 57-76.
  10. H. Jasiulewicz, Probability of ruin with variable premium rate in a Markovian environment, Insurance:Mathematics and Economics 29(2001), 291-296. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6687(01)00090-7
  11. S. Asmussen, Risk theory in a Markovian environment, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 2(1989), 69-100.
  12. R. Wu and L. Wei, The probability of ruin in a kind of Cox risk model with variable premium rate, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 2(2004), 121-132.
  13. J.M. Reinhard and M. Snoussi, The severity of ruin in a discrete semi-Markov risk model, Stochastic Models 18(2002),No.1, 85-107. https://doi.org/10.1081/STM-120002776
  14. Y. Lu and S. Li, On the probability of ruin in a Markov-modulated risk model, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 37 (2005), 522-532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2005.05.006
  15. M. Snoussi, The severity of ruin in Markov-modulated risk models, Schweiz. Aktuarver. Mitt 1(2002), 31-43.