• 무역상무연구
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• 제35권
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• pp.41-69
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• 2007

This study analyzes some important implications for the forthcoming revision of eUCP through the methodology of expected utility maximization theory. The overall results are as follows. First, beneficiary with an initial wealth has a risk-averse utility in traditional letter of credit transaction, and he would be more risk-averse in eUCP transaction. Secondly, the beneficiary who has risk-averse utility will pay for the risk premium to reduce the risk of corruption of an electronic record by means of cost of loss reduction activities. Thirdly, the cost of loss reduction activities is represented by a convex cost function, Fourthly, a risk averse beneficiary pursues loss reducing activities to the point where the expected marginal product of loss reduction is less than its marginal cost. Fifthly, a more risk-averse eUCP beneficiary will always select a higher level of loss reduction as long as the effectiveness of loss reduction is certain. Sixthly, when the effectiveness of loss reduction is uncertain, the more risk-averse eUCP beneficiary does not necessarily choose a higher level of loss reducing activities. Finally, it would be more reasonable that eUCP Article 11 should protect eUCP beneficiary who pursues a higher level of loss reducing activities.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.155-170
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• 2023

Purpose: Nowadays, the risk assessment system is widely used in many industrial and public areas to reduce the possible risks. The system is used to determine the priorities of the government quality assurance works in Defense Agency for Technology and Quality. However, as the risk assessment system is used for other purposes, there are some items that need improvement, and in this study, we propose improvement plans by benchmarking the risk assessment systems of other institutions. Methods: In this paper, first, the procedures of risk assessment system used in many industrial sites were reviewed, and how each institution specialized and applied the system. Afterwards, by benchmarking various risk assessment systems, an improvement plan on how to operate the risk assessment system in the case of government quality assurance for centrally procured military supplies was presented, and practical application cases were presented to prove the usefulness of the improvement plan. Results: The proposed risk assessment system differs from the existing system in five major aspects. First, inputs, outputs, and key performance indicators were specified from the systematic point of view. Second, risk analysis was analyzed in four dimensions: probability of occurrence, impact, detection difficulty. Third, risk mitigation measures were classified, control, transfer, and sharing. Fourth, the risk mitigation measures were realized through document verification, product verification, process verification, and quality system evaluation. Finally, risk mitigation measures were implemented and the effectiveness of the risk mitigation measures was evaluated through effectiveness evaluation. Conclusions: In order for the risk assessment procedure proposed in this study to be applied to actual work, it is necessary to obtain the consent of the person involved in the work due to the increased time for risk identification and preparation of the government quality assurance log, and a change in the information system that performs the actual work is required. Therefore, the authors of this study plan to actively perform internal seminar presentations and work improvement suggestions to apply these research outputs to actual work.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.101-110
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• 2022

최근 세계 건설시장은 2025년까지 연 평균 4.8%씩 성장할 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 이에 따른 해외건설 리스크도 증가할 것으로 전망하고 있다. 특히, 국내 건설업체들은 EPC(Engineering, Procurement, Construction)/Turnkey 사업에 집중적으로 참여하였지만, 계약적 리스크에 대응하지 못한 결과, 2013년부터 수조원대의 해외사업 손실을 입은 경험이 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 지금까지 EPC/Turnkey의 계약적 핵심 리스크 세부조항 도출에 대한 연구는 많지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 국제컨설팅엔지니어링연맹(FIDIC)에서 발행한 2017년 Silver Book 계약조건을 대상으로 핵심 리스크 세부조항을 연구하였다. 이를 위해서 국제건설계약 경험이 10년 이상인 30인의 전문가를 패널로 구성하여 FIDIC Silver Book 21개 조항 170개 세부조항을 델파이 설문조사를 실시하여 62개의 주요 리스크 세부조항을 도출하였다. 또한, 최종적으로 FMEA(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis)기법을 활용하여 RPN(Risk Priority Number)을 산정하였으며, Critical Risk 범위에 속하는 25개의 핵심 리스크 세부조항을 도출하였다. 본 연구 결과를 통하여 실무관점에서는 해외건설사업에서 입찰 및 계약체결 단계에서 주의 깊게 검토해야 할 계약조항들에 대해 참조할 수 있게 해주고, 학문관점에서는 해외건설 EPC/Turnkey 사업에서 사용되는 계약분야에 대해 어떤 방식으로 연구해야 할지의 방향성과 기초적 지식을 제공하고 있다.

• International Journal of Safety
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.6-10
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• 2010

The flash point of liquid solution is one of the most important flammability properties that used in hazard and risk assessments. Minimum flash point behaviour (MFPB) is showed when the flash point of a liquid mixture is below the flash points of the individual components. In this paper, the lower flash points for the flammable binary system, n-decane+n-octanol, were measured by Pensky-Martens closed cup tester. This binary mixture exhibited MFPB. The measured flash points were compared with the values calculated by the Raoult's law and the optimization method using van Laar and UNIQUAC equations. The optimization method were found to be better than those based on the Raoult's law, and successfully estimated MFPB. The opimization method based on the van Laar equation described the experimentally-derived data more effectively than was the case when the prediction model was based upon the UNIQUAC.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.27-32
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• 2020

많은 가스 시설들이 노후화 되고 있으므로 사고를 미연에 방지하기 위한 가스시설의 위험분석은 더욱 중요해 지고 있다. 특히, 위험을 도출하고 분석하는 것은 복잡한 가스시설을 위한 사고예방과 사고방지에 매우 중요하다. 그러나 여러 가지 상황을 고려해 위험을 도출하고 분석하는 연구가 아직 충분히 이루어지지 않았다. 본 논문은 복잡한 가스 시설에서 구역별로 위험을 도출하고 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 각 구역은 서로 다른 관점의 방법의 위험분석 기법을 적용하여 위험도를 산출하며 구역별 하나의 위험등급으로 통합한다. 위험지도(RiskMAP) 기반 위험 분석 시스템은 시설의 상태, 작업 및 주변 현황에 따라 구역의 위험변화를 즉시 사용자에게 알려준다. 본 연구에서 제안된 기법은 소프트웨어적 알고리즘으로 구현되고 본 연구에서 IoT와 GPS와 연계되어 위험지도기반 위험 분석 시스템에 적용된다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.93-102
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• 2017

일반적으로 VTSO(Vessel Traffic Service Operator)는 양 선박의 충돌위험 정도를 판단할 때, 선박들의 침로와 속력, DCPA(Distance to CPA)와 TCPA(Time to CPA) 그리고 양 선박의 조우 상황 등을 종합적으로 고려한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 VTS(Vessel Traffic Service) 관점에서의 선박충돌위험을 예측하는 방법으로 위험지수(Risk Index, RI)를 선박 조우 상황에 따른 위험, 선박 간 근접거리에 따른 위험 그리고 접근시간에 따른 위험으로 나누어 구하고, VTSO의 위험 태도를 반영한 충돌 위험도를 제안하였다. 위험지표의 각 계수와 위험 태도는 VTSO 설문을 실시하여 구하였고, 제안한 위험도의 타당성 검증을 위하여 부산항의 실제 사고 사례에 ES(Environmental Stress) 모델의 교통 환경 스트레스치($ES_S$)을 함께 적용하여 유효성을 확인하였다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.113-143
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• 1997

Most of the conflict problems between 2 persons can be represented as a bi-matrix game, because player's utilities, in general, are non-zero sum and change according to the progress of game. In the bi-matrix game the equilibrium point set which satisfies the Pareto optimality can be a good bargaining or coordination solution. Under the condition of incomplete information about the risk attitudes of the players, the bargaining or coordination solution depends on additional elements, namely, the players' methods of making inferences when they reach a node in the extensive form of the game that is off the equilibrium path. So the investigation about the players' inference type and its effects on the solution is essential. In addition to that, the effect of an individual's aversion to risk on various solutions in conflict problems, as expressed in his (her) utility function, must be considered. Those kinds of incomplete information make decision maker Bayesian, since it is often impossible to get correct information for building a decision making model. In Baysian point of view, this paper represents an analytic frame for guessing and learning opponent's attitude to risk for getting better reward. As an example for that analytic frame. 2 persons'bi-matrix game is considered. This example explains that a bi-matrix game can be transformed into a kind of matrix game through the players' implicitly cooperative attitude and the need of arbitration.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.157-165
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• 2020

This paper estimates the optimum level of reserves in Vietnam based on the approach of reserves' cost-benefit and sovereign risk which is one of developing countries' characteristics. The cost of reserves is the opportunity cost when holding reserves. The benefit of reserves is the loss due to country's default in case that there is no reserves to finance external debt payment. The optimum reserves is found out by minimizing the total of opportunity cost and loss due to country's default with the probability of default. Through the usage of HP Filter method for calculating the loss due to country's default, ARDL regression for the risk premium model and lending rate of VND as proxy for opportunity cost together with the Vietnamese economic data in the period of 2005 - 2017, the empirical results show that the optimum reserves in Vietnam is almost higher than the actual reserves during the research period except the point of Q3/2008 and the last point of research period - Q4/2017. Therefore, Vietnam should continue to increase reserves for safety but Vietnam does not need pushing quickly the speed of increasing reserves. In addition, controlling Vietnamese optimum reserves is necessary to help the actual reserves become reasonable.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2017

In the industrial field, various type of fuel have been used for product processing facilities. Recent for 10 years, the usage of natural gas (NG) was gradually increased. Because it has many merits; clean fuel, no transportation, storage facility and so on. There are common safety concept that strict explosion protection approaches are needed for facilities where explosive materials such as flammable liquid, vapor and gases exist. But some has an optimistic point of view that the lighter than air gases such as NG disperse rapidly, hence do not form explosion environment upon release into the atmosphere, many parts has a conventional safety point of view that those gases are also inflammable gases, hence can form explosion environment although the extent is limited and present. In this paper, the heating equipments (Hot Oil Heater) was reviewed and some risk management measures were proposed. These measures include hazardous area classification and explosion-proof provisions of electric apparatus, an early gas leak detection and isolation, ventilation system reliability, emergency response plan and training and so on. This study calculates Hazardous Area Classification using the hypothetical volume in the KS C IEC code.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제61권1호
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• pp.21-29
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• 2019

This study analyzed the variability of drought risk based on trend analysis of dry-seasonal dam inflow located in upper river basins. To this, we used areal averaged precipitation and dam inflow of three upper river dams such as Soyang dam, Chungju dam, and Andong dam. We employed Mann-Kendall trend analysis and change point detection method to identify the significant trends and changing point in time series. Our results showed that significant decreasing trends (95% confidence interval) in dry-seasonal runoff rates (= dam inflow/precipitation) in three-dam basins. We investigated potential causes of decreasing runoff rates trends using changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation indices. However, there were no clear relation among changes in runoff rates, PET, and precipitation indices. Runoff rate reduction in the three dams may increase the risk of dam operational management and long-term water resource planning. Therefore, it will be necessary to perform a multilateral analysis to better understand decreasing runoff rates.