• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.21-34
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• 2013

Various risk factors affect construction projects. Due to the uncertainties created by risk factors, actual activity durations frequently deviate from the estimated durations in either favorable or adverse direction. For this reason, evaluation of schedule uncertainty is required to make decisions accurately when managing construction projects. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer simulation model - the Repetitive Schedule Risk Analysis Model (RSRAM) - to evaluate unit-based repetitive building project schedules under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation and a Critical Path Method based repetitive scheduling procedure. This new procedure concurrently provides the utilization of resources without interruption and the maintenance of network logic through successive units. Furthermore, it enables assigning variable production rates to the activities from one unit to another and any kind of relationship type with or without lag time. Details of the model are described and an example application is presented. The findings show that the model produces realistic results regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.11
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• pp.308-320
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• 2016

This research is an empirical case study that suggests the practical practice and output of action plan, the actual performing activity of risk management system established to prevent and respond to risk of the elderly care facility. For this, this research analyzed the action plan practice process and outcome upon 2 years' practice (2014~2015) by A Elderly care facility which has conducted performance activity by establishing risk management system to prevent and respond to danger for the first time in Korea. As the research result, first, risk management system action plan was established in the choice and performance stage of risk prevention and response handling method, the 3rd among 4 staged process of risk management system establishment. Second, as the outcome along with risk management system action plan performance, as the result of comprehending the investigation on risk change for 2 years(2014~2015), risk decreased by 28% in 2015 compared to 2014, displaying effect in risk management activity along with performing action plan. Based on this result, it was determined that action plan for the effective action plan establishment and practice in the elderly care facility should be established with systematic promotion schedule to be well connected with its strategy, achievement goal, and achievement project, etc. based on vision and strategy, instead of being established individually, based on clear matter of responsibility, utilizing such technique as Gantt chart, etc., composing concretely by schematizing in order to view all contents to be practiced clearly.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.85-99
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• 1995

Increasingly, risk analysis is becoming important ingredients in achieving the successful implementation and application in the area of the project management. The project management system is designed to manage or control the project resources on a given activity within time, cost and performance so called TPPM (Total Productive Project Management). In this research, a risk analysis model misproposed to identify potential problem areas, quantify the risks, and generated the chice of the action that can be taken to reduce the risk. In addition two analysis models are proposed : 1) risk factor model and 2) network simulation model using VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique ). The objective of the remodels is to estimate the schedule, cost performance risks. These proposed quantitative models for project risk analysis are proving its value for the project managers who need to assess the risk of changes in cost, schedule, or performance. The proposed models will be used in the area of project selection, evaluation and the allocation of project resources.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1334-1339
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• 2009

To achieve the best performance of a project, uncertainties involved in the building construction process need to be identified in the planning phase of the project. Uncertainties seldom create a positive impact on construction project, but they almost cause delay and increase costs. Therefore, risk management plays a significant role in construction to minimize risk occurred due to uncertainties of a project. Although the importance of the risk management has been known to the construction industry, it is not enough to be developed to meet the demands of the industry. It has not been enough for Systems to control schedule risks for managers in the field. Therefore, a tool is necessary to efficiently control risks. The propose of this study is to invent Schedule Risk Control System Module to prepare for risks in preconstruction phase.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.107-116
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• 2010

Government and company are unfolding greenhouse gas reduction activity to prevent the effects of global warming. Also, verification business through greenhouse gas inventory construction is spreaded variously. Greenhouse gas verification proceeds by document examination, risk analysis, field survey. Document investigates emission information, calculation standard, emission report, data management system. And through risk assessment result, establish field verification plan. Through study on risk assessment of greenhouse gas inventory verification, wish to reduce risk of verification.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.397-402
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• 2013

In super-tall building construction projects, schedule risk factors which vertically change and are not found in the low and middle-rise building construction influence duration of a project by vertical attribute; and it makes hard to estimate activity or overall duration of a construction project. However, the existing duration estimating methods, that are based on quantity and productivity assuming activities of the same work item have the same risk and duration regardless of operation space, are not able to consider the schedule risk factors which change by the altitude of operation space. Therefore, in order to advance accuracy of duration estimation of super-tall building projects, the degree of changes of these risk factors according to altitude should be analyzed and incorporated into a duration estimating method. This research proposes a simulation model using Monte Carlo method for estimating activity duration incorporating schedule risk factors by weather conditions in a super-tall building. The research process is as follows. Firstly, the schedule risk factors in super-tall building are identified through literature and expert reviews, and occurrence of non-working days at high altitude by weather condition is identified as one of the critical schedule risk factors. Secondly, a calculating method of the vertical distributions of the weather factors such as temperature and wind speed is analyzed through literature reviews. Then, a probability distribution of the weather factors is developed using the weather database of the past decade. Thirdly, a simulation model and algorithms for estimating non-working days and duration of each activity is developed using Monte-Carlo method. Finally, sensitivity analysis and a case study are carried out for the validation of the proposed model.

• Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.237-245
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• 2016

Purpose: The aim of this study was to examine the effects of an Advanced Practice Nurse (APN)-led self-management program on cardiovascular health status among Korean women at risk of developing or progressing cardiovascular disease. Methods: This pilot study used one-group pre- and post- test experimental design. At health fairs in a community, 30 women who had one or more risk factors for metabolic syndrome were recruited and agreed to participate in the study. A total of 25 women completed the study. The intervention consisted of weekly follow-up calls and self-monitoring diary after an hour of individual counseling regarding risk factors, fast walking, and healthy diet tailored to the participants' needs. Physical activity was assessed with the World Health Organization International Physical Activity Questionnaire and a pedometer. Results: Participants showed statistically significant improvements in blood pressure, body mass index, levels of triglyceride, total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein, numbers of metabolic syndrome factors, and the 10-year CV risk estimate after one month of concentrated intervention. In addition, their physical activity behavior significantly improved after the intervention. Conclusion: This APN-led self-management program targeting modifiable risk factors by offering tailored counseling and concentrated support during the transition might be effective in preventing progression to the cardiovascular disease.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.63-73
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• 2008

The present study attempted to explore effective scanning and monitoring in process of risk management on agri-marine products distribution policy. The interest public's group interests clash in accordance with theme for issue on marking policy. For executing a better systematic scanning and monitoring on actual affairs of marketing, selecting information personnel, gathering and analysing information, issue and risk management and their valuation with ongoing and simultaneously. Especially, In order to explore effective scanning and monitoring as a model of risk management, the study attempted to analyze within and without environment of marketing, to analyze issue management strategy, to evaluate issue activity for likelihood and impact, risk cycle analysis, interest public's group concerned, grade of interest public's group threatened(power, legitimacy, willingness), rapport(staying close, credibility, meeting expectation). And the study make an ongoing observation progress of subjects, and the serious subjects need have made an close observation. The study suggested to establish friendly relationship between organization and interest public's group, and to regularly accomplish two-way symmetric communication.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.137-149
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• 2005

This study proposes a framework enhancing the accuracy of estimation for project duration by combining linear Bayesian updating scheme with the learning curve effect. Activities in a particular project might share resources in various forms and might be affected by risk factors such as weather Statistical dependence stemming from such resource or risk sharing might help us learn about the duration of upcoming activities in the Bayesian model. We illustrate, using a Monte Carlo simulation, that for partially repetitive projects a higher degree of statistical dependence among activity duration results in more variation in estimating the project duration in total, although more accurate forecasting Is achievable for the duration of an individual activity.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.135-145
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• 2020

Recently, the disaster rate of the construction industry has increased with high-rise, and complexity of the building, unlike the decrease in the disaster rate in other industries. Although risk assessment is performed to reduce the occurrence of disasters, it is difficult to estimate the risks accurately due to activity in which no disaster has occurred, and inconsistencies in the level of details of work. In this study, in order to evaluate the risk of the major activity for the apartment construction work, the activity was identified by referring to the risk assessment model of construction industry type by the KOSHA. The construction work types and activities were consistently organized in level of work into nine work types and 82 activities were through experts consultation. Analyzing the disaster types that occurred during work through KOSHA disaster cases, calculating the probability of disaster occurrence according to the type of disaster, and combining the probability of disaster with the severity of disaster to estimate the risk assessment method was presented. Using the daily report of the construction site of the apartment, the results of a case study confirmed the validity of the risk calculation method presented in this study.