Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Evaluating Schedule Uncertainty in Unit-Based Repetitive Building Projects

  • Okmen, Onder (Project & Construction Department, General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works)
  • Published : 2013.06.01
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Various risk factors affect construction projects. Due to the uncertainties created by risk factors, actual activity durations frequently deviate from the estimated durations in either favorable or adverse direction. For this reason, evaluation of schedule uncertainty is required to make decisions accurately when managing construction projects. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer simulation model - the Repetitive Schedule Risk Analysis Model (RSRAM) - to evaluate unit-based repetitive building project schedules under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation and a Critical Path Method based repetitive scheduling procedure. This new procedure concurrently provides the utilization of resources without interruption and the maintenance of network logic through successive units. Furthermore, it enables assigning variable production rates to the activities from one unit to another and any kind of relationship type with or without lag time. Details of the model are described and an example application is presented. The findings show that the model produces realistic results regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.

Keywords

References

  1. O. Moselhi, A. Hassanein, "Optimized Scheduling of Linear Projects", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 129, no. 6, pp. 664-673, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2003)129:6(664)
  2. K. El-Rayes, O. Moselhi, "Resource-driven scheduling of repetitive projects", Journal of Construction Management and Economics, vol. 16, pp. 433-446, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461998372213
  3. D.B. Ashley, "Simulation of repetitive-unit construction", ASCE Journal of Construction Division, vol. 106, no. 2, pp. 185-194, 1980.
  4. S. Selinger, "Construction planning for linear projects", ASCE Journal of Construction Division, vol. 106, no. 2, pp. 195-205, 1980.
  5. RM. Reda, "RPM: Repetitive project modeling", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 116, no. 2, pp. 316-330, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1990)116:2(316)
  6. A.D. Russell, W.C.M. Wong, "New generation of planning structures", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 119, no. 2, pp. 196-214, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1993)119:2(196)
  7. T. Hegazy, O. Moselhi, P.Fazio, "BAL: An algorithm for scheduling and control of linear projects", AACE Trans, C8-1-C8-14, 1993.
  8. D. Arditi, M.Z. Albulak, "Line-of-balance scheduling in pavement construction", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 112, no. 3, pp. 411-424, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1986)112:3(411)
  9. P. Lumsden, "The line of balance method", London: Pergamon Press Ltd, 1968.
  10. J.J. O'Brien, "VPM scheduling for high-rise buildings", Journal of Construction Division, ASCE, vol. 101, no. 4, pp. 895-905, 1975.
  11. D.W. Johnston, "Linear scheduling method for highway construction", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 107, no. 2, pp. 247-261, 1981.
  12. O. Stradal, J. Cacha, "Time space scheduling method", Journal of Construction Division, ASCE, vol. 108, no. 3, pp. 445-457, 1982.
  13. M.J. Mawdesley, "Time change charts for scheduling linear projects", Proceedings of the 6th ASCE Conference on Computing in Civil Engineering, pp. 613-620, 1989.
  14. M.A. Ammar, E. Elbeltagi, "Algorithm for determining controlling path considering resource continuity", Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 292-298, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2001)15:4(292)
  15. D.J. Harmelink, J.E. Rowings, "Linear scheduling model: Development of controlling activity path", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 124, no. 4, pp. 263-268, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1998)124:4(263)
  16. K.G. Mattila, D.M. Abraham, "Resource leveling of linear schedules using integer linear programming", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 124, no. 3, pp. 232-244, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1998)124:3(232)
  17. R.B. Harris, P.G. Ioannou, "Scheduling projects with repeating activities", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 124, no. 4, pp. 269-273, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1998)124:4(269)
  18. G.A. Duffy, G.D. Oberlender, D.H.S. Jeong, "Linear scheduling model with varying production rates", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 137, no. 8, pp. 574-582, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000320
  19. K. Cho, T. Hong, C. Hyun, "Scheduling model for repetitive construction processes for high-rise buildings", Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 36-48, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1139/L10-108
  20. A. Jaafari, "Criticism of CPM for project planning analysis", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 110, no. 2, pp. 222-223, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1984)110:2(222)
  21. R. Flanagan, G. Norman, "Risk management and construction", Cambridge: Backwell Scientific, 1993.
  22. L. Edwards, "Practical risk management in the construction industry", London: Thomas Telford, 1995.
  23. A. Oztas, O. Okmen, "Risk analysis in fixed-price design-build construction projects", Building and Environment, vol. 39, pp. 229-237, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2003.08.018
  24. N. Sadeghi, A.R. Fayek, W. Pedrycz, "Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Assessment in Construction", Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, vol.25, no. 4, pp. 238-252.
  25. Dept of the Navy. "PERT, program evaluation research task", Washington: Phase I Summary Rep., Special Projects Office, Bureau of Ordnance,1958.
  26. A.H.S. Ang, A.A. Chaher, J. Abdelnour, "Analysis of activity networks under uncertainty", Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Devision, vol. 101, no. 4, pp. 373-387, 1975.
  27. C.F. Diaz, F.C. Hadipriono, "Nondeterministic networking methods", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 119, no. 1, pp. 40-57, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1993)119:1(40)
  28. W.C. Wang, L.A. Demsetz, "Application example for evaluating networks considering correlation", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 126, no. 6, pp. 467-474, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2000)126:6(467)
  29. W.C. Wang, L.A. Demsetz, "Model for evaluating networks under correlated uncertainty-NETCOR", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 126, no. 6, pp. 458-466, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2000)126:6(458)
  30. R.I. Carr, "Simulation of construction project duration", Journal of Construction Division, ASCE, vol. 105, no. 2, pp. 117-128, 1979.
  31. J.C. Woolery, K.C. Crandall, "Stochastic network model for planning scheduling", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 109, no. 3, pp. 342-354, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1983)109:3(342)
  32. H.N. Ahuja, V. Nandakumar, "Simulation model to forecast project completion time", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 111, no. 4, pp. 325-342, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1985)111:4(325)
  33. R.E. Levitt, J.C. Kunz, "Using knowledge of construction and project management for automated schedule updating", Project Management Journal, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 57-76, 1985.
  34. L.S. Riggs, "Risk Management in CPM Networks", Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 229-235, 1989.
  35. M. Ranasinghe, A.D. Russell, "Treatment of correlation for risk analysis of engineering projects", Civil Engineering Systems, vol. 9, pp.17-39, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1080/02630259208970637
  36. A. Touran, E.P. Wiser, "Monte Carlo technique with correlated random variables", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 118, no. 2, pp. 258-272, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1992)118:2(258)
  37. A. Oztas, O. Okmen, "Judgmental risk analysis process development in construction projects", Building and Environment, vol. 40, no.9, pp. 1244-1254, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2004.10.013
  38. I.T. Yang, "Risk Modeling of Dependence among Project Task Durations", Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 419-429, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8667.2007.00497.x
  39. O. Okmen, A. Oztas, "Construction Project Network Evaluation with Correlated Schedule Risk Analysis Model (CSRAM)", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 134, no. 1, pp. 49-63, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2008)134:1(49)