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Project Duration Estimation and Risk Analysis Using Intra-and Inter-Project Learning for Partially Repetitive Projects  

Cho, Sung-Bin (서강대학교 경영학과)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society / v.30, no.3, 2005 , pp. 137-149 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study proposes a framework enhancing the accuracy of estimation for project duration by combining linear Bayesian updating scheme with the learning curve effect. Activities in a particular project might share resources in various forms and might be affected by risk factors such as weather Statistical dependence stemming from such resource or risk sharing might help us learn about the duration of upcoming activities in the Bayesian model. We illustrate, using a Monte Carlo simulation, that for partially repetitive projects a higher degree of statistical dependence among activity duration results in more variation in estimating the project duration in total, although more accurate forecasting Is achievable for the duration of an individual activity.
Keywords
Project Duration Estimation; linear Bayesian learning; learning Curve Effect; Risk Analysis; Influence Diagram;
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