• 한국임상수의학회지
• /
• 제36권1호
• /
• pp.23-29
• /
• 2019

While research findings suggest that the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is the leading cause of economic loss in Korean poultry industry with an estimated cumulative impact of $909 million since 2003, identifying the environmental and anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. The objective of this study was to identify areas at high risk for potential HPAI outbreaks according to the likelihood of HPAI virus detection in wild birds. This study integrates spatial information regarding HPAI surveillance with relevant demographic and environmental factors collected between 2003 and 2018. The Maximum Entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling with presence-only data was used to model the spatial risk of HPAI virus. We used historical data on HPAI occurrence in wild birds during the period 2003-2018, collected by the National Quarantine Inspection Agency of Korea. The database contains a total of 1,065 HPAI cases (farms) tied to 168 unique locations for wild birds. Among the environmental variables, the most effective predictors of the potential distribution of HPAI in wild birds were (in order of importance) altitude, number of HPAI outbreaks at farm-level, daily amount of manure processed and number of wild birds migrated into Korea. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the 10 Maxent replicate runs of the model with twelve variables was 0.855 with a standard deviation of 0.012 which indicates that the model performance was excellent. Results revealed that geographic area at risk of HPAI is heterogeneously distributed throughout the country with higher likelihood in the west and coastal areas. The results may help biosecurity authority to design risk-based surveillance and implementation of control interventions optimized for the areas at highest risk of HPAI outbreak potentials.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
• /
• 제21권5호
• /
• pp.714-721
• /
• 2018

This study proposes a risk evaluation method based on RAM and AHP data in order to prevent subjectivity of risk assessment. The risk assessment consist of Risk Likelihood(RL) and Risk Consequence(RC) in five levels. However, risk analysis of warships is hard to make a judgment because of small quantity production(Ship), long building period, equipment changes, complexity, various kinds of equipments, etc. The proposed RAM data and AHP analysis method are used to quantify each level quantitatively. RAM(MTBF) date is used to classify the RL, and AHP analysis is used to classify the RC. These scientific and data-based method will increase objectivity as well as efficiency of risk evaluation.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국농림기상학회 2014년도 추계 학술발표논문집
• /
• pp.61-73
• /
• 2014

• 한국가스학회지
• /
• 제14권4호
• /
• pp.37-44
• /
• 2010

본 연구에서는 압력설비의 위험 원인분석 방법을 제시하기 위하여 API-581 절차에 의한 위험기반검사(RBI)에서 염산부식의 두께감소로 인한 사고발생 가능성을 해석하였다. 이를 위해 사고발생 가능성의 주요 인자인 기술종속계수(TMSF)를 산출하고, TMSF에 미치는 매개변수의 영향을 정량적으로 해석하였다. 그 결과, TMSF는 염화이온 농도와 온도가 증가할수록 증가하였으나, 설비두께, 검사횟수 및 검사유효성이 증가할수록 감소하였으며, 모니터링이 있는 경우와 과설계계수가 1.5배 이상인 경우에는 상당히 적은 값을 나타내었다. 이때, 검사횟수, 검사유효성 등급 및 과설계 계수의 크기에 따라 TMSF가 민감하게 변화하였으며, 모니터링은 TMSF의 크기만 변화시켰다.

• 한국안전학회지
• /
• 제17권4호
• /
• pp.110-118
• /
• 2002

During the last ten years, the need has been increase for reducing maintenance cost for aged equipments are ensuring safety, efficiency and profitability of petrochemical and refinery plants. American Petroleum institute(API) developed a code, API 581 for proposing standard procedures of risk based inspection. Even though the API 581 code covers general RBI procedures, there must be some limitations. In this study, a semi-quantitative assessment algorithm for RBI based on the API 581 code was reconstructed for developing an RBI software. The user-friendly realRBI software is developed with a module for evaluation semi-quantitative risk category using the potential consequence factor and the likelihood factor. Also, inspection planning module for inspection time and inspection method for equipments are included.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• 제24권3호
• /
• pp.281-293
• /
• 2021

Uncertainties in geomechanical input parameters which mainly related to inappropriate data acquisition and estimation due to lack of sufficient calibration information, have led wellbore instability not yet to be fully understood or addressed. This paper demonstrates a workflow of employing Quantitative Risk Assessment technique, considering these uncertainties in terms of rock properties, pore pressure and in-situ stresses to makes it possible to survey not just the likelihood of accomplishing a desired level of wellbore stability at a specific mud pressure, but also the influence of the uncertainty in each input parameter on the wellbore stability. This probabilistic methodology in conjunction with Monte Carlo numerical modeling techniques was applied to a case study of a well. The response surfaces analysis provides a measure of the effects of uncertainties in each input parameter on the predicted mud pressure from three widely used failure criteria, thereby provides a key measurement for data acquisition in the future wells to reduce the uncertainty. The results pointed out that the mud pressure is tremendously sensitive to UCS and SHmax which emphasize the significance of reliable determinations of these two parameters for safe drilling. On the other hand, the predicted safe mud window from Mogi-Coulomb is the widest while the Hoek-Brown is the narrowest and comparing the anticipated collapse failures from the failure criteria and breakouts observations from caliper data, indicates that Hoek-Brown overestimate the minimum mud weight to avoid breakouts while Mogi-Coulomb criterion give better forecast according to real observations.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제20권5호
• /
• pp.405-416
• /
• 2013

This paper develops a maximum profile likelihood estimator of unknown parameters of the exponentiated Gumbel distribution based on upper record values. We propose an approximate maximum profile likelihood estimator for a scale parameter. In addition, we derive Bayes estimators of unknown parameters of the exponentiated Gumbel distribution using Lindley's approximation under symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. We assess the validity of the proposed method by using real data and compare these estimators based on estimated risk through a Monte Carlo simulation.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
• /
• 제25권2호
• /
• pp.91-97
• /
• 2023

Ensuring the safe arrival of delivery cargo at its intended destination is of utmost importance. Truck drivers play a crucial role in guaranteeing the secure delivery of cargo without any mishaps. However, there are various factors that may lead to delayed arrival of trucks at their destination, such as late departures or prolonged loading operations. The timely departure of cargo transportation is contingent upon several variables, including the driver's experience, cargo volume, and loading time. If the transportation commencement is delayed, it may increase the risk of accidents due to an elevated operating speed. Consequently, we conducted a study to investigate the correlation between cargo loading time, cargo volume, driving experience, and the likelihood of accidents. Our findings indicate that both cargo volume and driver experience can impact the likelihood of vehicle accidents. Furthermore, all factors can have an interactive effect on the occurrence of accidents. However, extending the loading time may mitigate the impact on the likelihood of accidents.

• 해양환경안전학회지
• /
• 제24권3호
• /
• pp.319-324
• /
• 2018

The collision problem is one of the design factors that must be carefully considered for the risk of collision occurring during the operation of ships and offshore structures. This paper presents the main results of the ship collision study, and its main goal is to analyze potential crash scenarios that may occur in the FLNG (Floating Liquefied Natural Gas) considering the likelihood and outcome. Consideration being given to vessels visiting the FLNG and surrounding vessels navigating around, such as functionally supported vessels and offloading carriers. The scope includes vessels visiting the FLNG facility such as in-field support vessels and off-loading carriers, as well as third party passing vessels. In this study, based on QRA (quantitative risk assessment), basic research methods and information on collision are provided. Based on the assumptions and methodologies documented in this study, it has been possible to clarify the frequency of collision and the damage category according to the type of visiting ship. Based on these results, the risk assessment results related to the collision have been derived.

• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제43권4호
• /
• pp.511-520
• /
• 2015

Purpose: This study suggests a method of risk assessment based on RAM analysis in order to reduce the subjectivity. Methods: RAM analysis is used to assessment risk consequence(RC) and risk likelihood(RL). Result: The calculated result of the product, which has higher risk assessment, shows lower MTBF system. Conclusion: Risk assessment based on objective database will provide objectivity and effective quality control.