Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.12989/gae.2021.24.3.281

Quantitative risk assessment for wellbore stability analysis using different failure criteria  

Noohnejad, Alireza (Department of Mining Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University)
Ahangari, Kaveh (Department of Mining Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University)
Goshtasbi, Kamran (Department of Mining Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University)
Publication Information
Geomechanics and Engineering / v.24, no.3, 2021 , pp. 281-293 More about this Journal
Abstract
Uncertainties in geomechanical input parameters which mainly related to inappropriate data acquisition and estimation due to lack of sufficient calibration information, have led wellbore instability not yet to be fully understood or addressed. This paper demonstrates a workflow of employing Quantitative Risk Assessment technique, considering these uncertainties in terms of rock properties, pore pressure and in-situ stresses to makes it possible to survey not just the likelihood of accomplishing a desired level of wellbore stability at a specific mud pressure, but also the influence of the uncertainty in each input parameter on the wellbore stability. This probabilistic methodology in conjunction with Monte Carlo numerical modeling techniques was applied to a case study of a well. The response surfaces analysis provides a measure of the effects of uncertainties in each input parameter on the predicted mud pressure from three widely used failure criteria, thereby provides a key measurement for data acquisition in the future wells to reduce the uncertainty. The results pointed out that the mud pressure is tremendously sensitive to UCS and SHmax which emphasize the significance of reliable determinations of these two parameters for safe drilling. On the other hand, the predicted safe mud window from Mogi-Coulomb is the widest while the Hoek-Brown is the narrowest and comparing the anticipated collapse failures from the failure criteria and breakouts observations from caliper data, indicates that Hoek-Brown overestimate the minimum mud weight to avoid breakouts while Mogi-Coulomb criterion give better forecast according to real observations.
Keywords
geomechanical key parameters; wellbore instability; quantitative risk assessment; response surface; failure criteria; likelihood of success;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Elyasi, A. and Goshtasbi, K. (2015), "Using different rock failure criteria in wellbore stability analysis", Geomech. Energy Environ., 2, 15-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gete.2015.04.001.   DOI
2 Fjaer, E., Holt, R.M., Hordrud, P., Raaen, A.M. and Risnes, R. (2008), Petroleum Related Rock Mechanic (Development in Petroleum Sciences, Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
3 Gholami, R., Moradzadeh, A., Rasouli, V. and Hanachi, J. (2014), "Practical application of failure criteria in determining safe mud weight windows in drilling operations", J. Rock Mech. Geotech. Eng., 6(1), 13-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrmge.2013.11.002.   DOI
4 Guan Z.C and Sheng, Y.N. (2017), "Study on evaluation method for wellbore stability", J. Appl. Sci. Eng., 20(4), 453-457. https://doi.org/10.6180/jase.2017.20.4.06.   DOI
5 Han, Y. and Meng, F.F. (2014), "Selecting safe mud weight window for wellbore in shale while drilling using numerical simulation", Proceedings of the IADC/SPE Drilling Conference and Exhibition, Fort Worth, Texas, U.S.A., March.
6 Hoek, E. and Brown, E.T. (1980), "Empirical strength criterion for rock masses", J. Geotech. Eng. Div., 106, 1013-1035.   DOI
7 Horsrud, P. (2001), "Estimating mechanical properties of shale from empirical correlations", SPE Drill. Compl., 16 (2), 68-73. https://doi.org/10.2118/56017-PA.   DOI
8 Johnson, N.L, Kotz, S and Balakrishnan, N. (1994), Continuous Univariate Distributions, Volume 2, Wiley-Interscience.
9 Kidambi, T. and Kumar, G.S. (2016), "Mechanical Earth modeling for a vertical well drilled in a naturally fractured tight carbonate gas reservoir in the Persian Gulf", J. Petrol. Sci. Eng., 141, 38-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2016.01.003.   DOI
10 Maleki, S., Gholami, R., Rasouli, V., Moradzadeh, A., Ghvami, R. and Sadeghzadeh, F. (2014), "Comparison of different failure criteria in prediction of safe mud weigh window in drilling practice", Earth Sci., 136, 36-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.05.010.   DOI
11 Militzer, H. and Stoll, R. (1973), "Einige Beitraege der Geophysik zur primaerdatenerfassung im Bergbau", Neue Bergbautechnik Leipzig, 3(1), 21-25.
12 Ohen, H.A. (2003), "Calibrated wireline mechanical rock properties method for predicting and preventing wellbore collapse and sanding", Proceedings of the SPE European Formation Damage Conference, The Hague, The Netherlands, May.
13 Mogi, K. (1971), "Fracture and flow under high triaxial compression", J. Geophys. Res., 76(5), 1255-1269. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB076i005p01255.   DOI
14 Moos, D., Peska, P., Finkbeiner, T. and Zoback, M. (2003), "Comprehensive wellbore stability analysis utilizing quantitative risk assessment", J. Petrol. Sci. Eng., 38(3-4), 97-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0920-4105(03)00024-X.   DOI
15 Noeth, S.H. and Birchwood, R. (2015), "Mechanical Earth model, definition, construction, evaluation and various types", Schlumberger Geomechanics DCS, Huston, Texas, U.S.A.
16 Ostadhassan, M., Zeng, Z. and Zamiran, S. (2012) "Geomechanical modeling of an anisotropic formation-Bakken case study", Proceedings of the 46th US Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A., June.
17 Ottesen, R.H., Zheng, R.H. and McCann, R.C. (1999), "Borehole Stability Assessment Using Quantitative Risk Analysis", In: Proceedings of the SPE/IADC Drilling Conference, Paper SPE/IADC 52864, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, March.
18 Plazas, F. (2016), "Wellbore stability analysis based on sensitivity and uncertainty analysis", Proceedings of the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Dubai, UAE, September.
19 Plumb, R., Edwards, S., Pidcock, G., Lee, D. and Stacey, B. (2000), "The mechanical Earth model concept and its application to high-risk well construction projects", Proceedings of the IADC/SPE 59128 Drilling Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A., February.
20 Zoback, M.D., Barton, C.A., Brudy, M., Castillo, D.A., Finkbeiner, T., Grollimund, B.R., Moos, D.B., Paska, P., Ward, C.D. and Wiprut, D.J. (2003), "Determination of stress orientation and magnitude in deep wells", Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 40(7-8), 1049-1076. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2003.07.001.   DOI
21 Sheorey, P.R. (1997), Empirical Rock Failure Criteria, Balkema, Rotterdam, The Netherlands,176.
22 Wei, J.G. and Yan, C.L. (2014), "Borehole stability analysis in oil and gas drilling in undrained condition", Geomech. Eng., 7(5), 553-567. http://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2014.7.5.553.   DOI
23 Snedecor, G.W and Cochran, W.G. (1989), Statistical Methods, 8th Edition, Iowa State University Press, U.S.A.
24 Stephens, M.A. (1976), "Asymptotic results for goodness-of-fit statistics with unknown parameters", Ann. Stat., 4, 357-369.   DOI
25 Wang, Z. (2001), Dynamic versus Static Elastic Properties of Reservoir Rocks, in Seismic and Acoustic Velocities in Reservoir Rocks, 531-539.
26 Wiprut, D. and Zoback, M.D. (2000), "Constraining the stress tensor in the Visund field, Norwegian North Sea: Application to wellbore stability and sand production", Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 37(1-2), 317-336. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1365-1609(99)00109-4   DOI
27 Zang, A. and Stephansson, O. (2010), Stress Field of the Earth's Crust, Springer, The Netherlands.
28 Zhang, J. (2013), "Borehole stability analysis accounting for anisotropies in drilling to weak bedding planes", Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 60, 160-170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2012.12.025.   DOI
29 Zhu, X., Liu, W. and Zheng, H. (2016), "A fully coupled thermo-poroelastoplasticity analysis of wellbore stability", Geomech. Eng., 10(4), 437-454. http://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2016.10.4.437.   DOI
30 Aadnoy, S.B. and Looyeh, R. (2010), Petroleum Rock Mechanics: Drilling Operation and Well Design, Elsevier Publication, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 359.
31 Al-Ajmi, A.M. and Zimmerman, R.W. (2005), "Relation between the Mogi and the Coulomb failure criteria", Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 42(3), 431-439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2004.11.004.   DOI
32 Ameen, M.S., Smart, B.G.D., Somerville, J.M.C., Hammilton, S. and Naji, N.A. (2009), "Predicting rock mechanical properties of carbonates from wireline logs (a case study: Arab-D reservoir, Ghawar field, Saudi Arabia)", Mar. Petrol. Geol., 26(4), 430-444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2009.01.017.   DOI
33 Eaton, B.A. (1975), "The equation for geopressure prediction from well logs", Proceedings of the Fall Meeting of the Society of Petroleum Engineers of AIME, Dallas, Texas, U.S.A., September.
34 Bagheripour, M.H., Rahgozar, R., Pashnesaz, H. and Malekinejad, M. (2011), "A complement to Hoek-Brown failure criterion for strength prediction in anisotropic rock", Geomech. Eng., 3(1), 61-81. http://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2011.3.1.061.   DOI
35 Chakravarti, I.M., Laha, R.G and Roy, J. (1967), Handbook of Methods of Applied Statistics, Volume 1, John Wiley and Sons, 392-394.
36 Das, B. and Chatterjee, R. (2017), "Wellbore stability analysis and prediction of minimum mud weight for few wells in Krishna-Godavari Basin, India", Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 93, 30-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2016.12.018.   DOI
37 Eissa, E.A. and Kazi, A. (1988), "Relation between static and dynamic Young's moduli of rocks", Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech., 25(6), 479-482.   DOI