• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.714-721
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• 2018

This study proposes a risk evaluation method based on RAM and AHP data in order to prevent subjectivity of risk assessment. The risk assessment consist of Risk Likelihood(RL) and Risk Consequence(RC) in five levels. However, risk analysis of warships is hard to make a judgment because of small quantity production(Ship), long building period, equipment changes, complexity, various kinds of equipments, etc. The proposed RAM data and AHP analysis method are used to quantify each level quantitatively. RAM(MTBF) date is used to classify the RL, and AHP analysis is used to classify the RC. These scientific and data-based method will increase objectivity as well as efficiency of risk evaluation.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.61-73
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• 2014

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.37-44
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• 2010

To propose a cause analysis method of pressurized facilities, a likelihood of failure (LOF) for the thinning module by hydrochloric acid corrosion was analyzed through the risk-based inspection (RBI) using API-581 BRD. For this investigation, the technical module subfactor (TMSF), as a main factor of the LOF, was estimated, and the effects of parameters on the TMSF were analyzed quantitatively. As a result, we found that the TMSF increased with increasing chloride ion concentration and temperature, but it decreased with increasing thickness of the facilities, inspection number and inspection effectiveness. Also, the TMSF showed a relatively low value for the monitoring system implemented and the overdesign factor>1.5. In this condition, the TMSF changed sensitively with the inspection number, the inspection effectiveness and the overdesign factor, and its magnitude varied with the monitoring system.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.110-118
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• 2002

During the last ten years, the need has been increase for reducing maintenance cost for aged equipments are ensuring safety, efficiency and profitability of petrochemical and refinery plants. American Petroleum institute(API) developed a code, API 581 for proposing standard procedures of risk based inspection. Even though the API 581 code covers general RBI procedures, there must be some limitations. In this study, a semi-quantitative assessment algorithm for RBI based on the API 581 code was reconstructed for developing an RBI software. The user-friendly realRBI software is developed with a module for evaluation semi-quantitative risk category using the potential consequence factor and the likelihood factor. Also, inspection planning module for inspection time and inspection method for equipments are included.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.281-293
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• 2021

Uncertainties in geomechanical input parameters which mainly related to inappropriate data acquisition and estimation due to lack of sufficient calibration information, have led wellbore instability not yet to be fully understood or addressed. This paper demonstrates a workflow of employing Quantitative Risk Assessment technique, considering these uncertainties in terms of rock properties, pore pressure and in-situ stresses to makes it possible to survey not just the likelihood of accomplishing a desired level of wellbore stability at a specific mud pressure, but also the influence of the uncertainty in each input parameter on the wellbore stability. This probabilistic methodology in conjunction with Monte Carlo numerical modeling techniques was applied to a case study of a well. The response surfaces analysis provides a measure of the effects of uncertainties in each input parameter on the predicted mud pressure from three widely used failure criteria, thereby provides a key measurement for data acquisition in the future wells to reduce the uncertainty. The results pointed out that the mud pressure is tremendously sensitive to UCS and SHmax which emphasize the significance of reliable determinations of these two parameters for safe drilling. On the other hand, the predicted safe mud window from Mogi-Coulomb is the widest while the Hoek-Brown is the narrowest and comparing the anticipated collapse failures from the failure criteria and breakouts observations from caliper data, indicates that Hoek-Brown overestimate the minimum mud weight to avoid breakouts while Mogi-Coulomb criterion give better forecast according to real observations.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.405-416
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• 2013

This paper develops a maximum profile likelihood estimator of unknown parameters of the exponentiated Gumbel distribution based on upper record values. We propose an approximate maximum profile likelihood estimator for a scale parameter. In addition, we derive Bayes estimators of unknown parameters of the exponentiated Gumbel distribution using Lindley's approximation under symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. We assess the validity of the proposed method by using real data and compare these estimators based on estimated risk through a Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.91-97
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• 2023

Ensuring the safe arrival of delivery cargo at its intended destination is of utmost importance. Truck drivers play a crucial role in guaranteeing the secure delivery of cargo without any mishaps. However, there are various factors that may lead to delayed arrival of trucks at their destination, such as late departures or prolonged loading operations. The timely departure of cargo transportation is contingent upon several variables, including the driver's experience, cargo volume, and loading time. If the transportation commencement is delayed, it may increase the risk of accidents due to an elevated operating speed. Consequently, we conducted a study to investigate the correlation between cargo loading time, cargo volume, driving experience, and the likelihood of accidents. Our findings indicate that both cargo volume and driver experience can impact the likelihood of vehicle accidents. Furthermore, all factors can have an interactive effect on the occurrence of accidents. However, extending the loading time may mitigate the impact on the likelihood of accidents.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.319-324
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• 2018

The collision problem is one of the design factors that must be carefully considered for the risk of collision occurring during the operation of ships and offshore structures. This paper presents the main results of the ship collision study, and its main goal is to analyze potential crash scenarios that may occur in the FLNG (Floating Liquefied Natural Gas) considering the likelihood and outcome. Consideration being given to vessels visiting the FLNG and surrounding vessels navigating around, such as functionally supported vessels and offloading carriers. The scope includes vessels visiting the FLNG facility such as in-field support vessels and off-loading carriers, as well as third party passing vessels. In this study, based on QRA (quantitative risk assessment), basic research methods and information on collision are provided. Based on the assumptions and methodologies documented in this study, it has been possible to clarify the frequency of collision and the damage category according to the type of visiting ship. Based on these results, the risk assessment results related to the collision have been derived.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.511-520
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• 2015

Purpose: This study suggests a method of risk assessment based on RAM analysis in order to reduce the subjectivity. Methods: RAM analysis is used to assessment risk consequence(RC) and risk likelihood(RL). Result: The calculated result of the product, which has higher risk assessment, shows lower MTBF system. Conclusion: Risk assessment based on objective database will provide objectivity and effective quality control.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.233-240
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• 1999

Even though the recent construction safety disasters not only result in the loss inside construction sites but also become to a large public disasters, safety activities are managed in an irrational way and safety rules are ignored in the construction sites which leads to occur same type of disasters repeatedly. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the general construction projects safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique base on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.