• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.757-773
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• 2012

Traditional value at risk(S-VaR) has a difficulity in predicting the future risk of financial asset prices since S-VaR is a backward looking measure based on the historical data of the underlying asset prices. In order to resolve the deficiency of S-VaR, an economic value at risk(E-VaR) using the risk neutral probability distributions is suggested since E-VaR is a forward looking measure based on the option price data. In this study E-VaR is estimated by assuming the generalized gamma distribution(GGD) as risk neutral density function which is implied in the option. The estimated E-VaR with GGD was compared with E-VaR estimates under the Black-Scholes model, two-lognormal mixture distribution, generalized extreme value distribution and S-VaR estimates under the normal distribution and GARCH(1, 1) model, respectively. The option market data of the KOSPI 200 index are used in order to compare the performances of the above VaR estimates. The results of the empirical analysis show that GGD seems to have a tendency to estimate VaR conservatively; however, GGD is superior to other models in the overall sense.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.171-180
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• 2016

Basel committee suggests using Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) as a measurement for market risk. Various estimation methods of VaR and ES have been studied in the literature. This paper compares semi-parametric methods, such as conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) and conditional autoregressive expectile (CARE) methods, and a Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE)-based method through back-testing methods. We use unconditional coverage (UC) and conditional coverage (CC) tests for VaR, and a bootstrap test for ES to check the adequacy. A real data analysis is conducted for S&P 500 index and Hyundai Motor Co. stock price index data sets.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.16D no.1
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• pp.105-112
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• 2009

Risk management is increasingly seen as one of the main jobs of project managers. It involves anticipating risks that might affect the project schedule or the quality of the software being developed and taking action to avoid these risks. The results of the risk analysis should be documented in the project plan along with an analysis of the consequences of a risk occurring. Effective risk management makes it easier to cope with problems and to ensure that these do not lead to unacceptable budget or schedule slippage. This research provides criteria of analysis of risk items to the estimation of process milestone on software development. Also, In this paper propose to a fixed quantity and transition phase.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.9-17
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• 2019

In order to deal with high uncertainty and variability in emergency medical centers, many researchers have developed various models for their operational planning and scheduling. However, most of the models just provide static plans without any risk measures as their results, and thus the users often lose the opportunity to analyze how much risk the patients have, whether the plan is still implementable or how the plan should be changed when an unexpected event happens. In this study, we construct a simulation model combined with a risk-based planning and scheduling module designed by Simio LLC. In addition to static schedules, it provides possibility of treatment delay for each patient as a risk measure, and updates the schedule to avoid the risk when it is needed. By using the simulation model, the users can experiment various scenarios in operations quickly, and also can make a decision not based on their past experience or intuition but based on scientific estimation of risks even in urgent situations. An example of such an operational decision making process is demonstrated for a real mid-size emergency medical center located in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The model is designed for temporal short-term planning especially, but it can be expanded for long-term planning also with some appropriate adjustments.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.191-200
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• 1993

An asymptotic estimation problem of the unknown mean is studied under a general loss function. The proof of this result is based on the asymptotic expansion of the risk function. Also conditions for second order admissibility and minimaxity of a class of estimators depending only on the sample mean are established.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.1-10
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• 2002

A Bayes estimator of the scale parameter in an exponential distribution will be considered by a LINEX error, then the risk of the Bayes estimator using a LINEX loss will be compared with that of a Bayes estimator using a square error.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Food Hygiene and Safety Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.139-142
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• 2002

This study carried out to evaluate TMDI(theoretical maximum daily intake) and EDI(estimated daily intake) for Korean by using MRLs, food intake, residue data, and correction factors and compare with ADI(acceptable daily intake) in order to estimate the health risk based on the pesticide exposure.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.123-126
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• 2005

Recently many accidents have been occurred on track workers, these accidents have strong relationship with increase of train speed, electrification and multiple track portion. As a first step for the safety management, domestic and abroad track worker accidents data are analysed for the risk estimation of track worker. Analysis results shows that contact between track worker and train is the dormant reason. In order to reduce dormant reason fault trees are constructed in this study.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.71-76
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• 1998

By assuming a general progressive Type-II censored sample, we propose the minimum risk estimator (MRE) of the location parameter and the scale parameter of the two-parameter exponential distribution. An example is given to illustrate the methods of estimation discussed in this paper.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.137-152
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• 2014

In this paper, I suggest several techniques to estimate covariance matrix and compare the performance of the global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP) in terms of out of sample mean standard deviation and return. As a result, the return differences among the GMVPs are insignificant. The mean standard deviation of the GMVP using historical covariance is sensitive to the estimation window and the number of assets in the portfolio. Among the model covariance, the GMVP using constant systematic risk ratio model or using short sale restriction shows the best performance. The performance difference between the GMVPs using historical covariance and model covariance becomes insignificant as the historical covariance is estimated with longer estimation window. Lastly, the implied volatilities from ELW prices do not lead to superior performance to the historical variance.