• Title/Summary/Keyword: Right tail probability

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Estimations in a skewed uniform distribution

  • Son, Hee-Ju;Woo, Jung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.733-740
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    • 2009
  • We obtain a skewed uniform distribution by a uniform distribution, and evaluate its coeffcient of skewness. And we obtain the approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AML) and moment estimator of skew parameter in the skewed uniform distribution. And we compare simulated mean squared errors (MSE) of those estimators, and also compare MSE of two proposed reliability estimators in two independent skewed uniform distributions each with different skew parameters.

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The Approximate MLE in a Skew-Symmetric Laplace Distribution

  • Son, Hee-Ju;Woo, Jung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.573-584
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    • 2007
  • We define a skew-symmetric Laplace distribution by a symmetric Laplace distribution and evaluate its coefficient of skewness. And we derive an approximate maximum likelihood estimator(AME) and a moment estimator(MME) of a skewed parameter in a skew-symmetric Laplace distribution, and hence compare simulated mean squared errors of those estimators. We compare asymptotic mean squared errors of two defined estimators of reliability in two independent skew-symmetric distributions.

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Reliability In a Half-Triangle Distribution and a Skew-Symmetric Distribution

  • Woo, Jung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.543-552
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    • 2007
  • We consider estimation of the right-tail probability in a half-triangle distribution, and also consider inference on reliability, and derive the k-th moment of ratio of two independent half-triangle distributions with different supports. As we define a skew-symmetric random variable from a symmetric triangle distribution about origin, we derive its k-th moment.

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Estimating a Skewed Parameter and Reliability in a Skew-Symmetric Double Rayleigh Distribution

  • Son, Hee-Ju;Woo, Jung-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1205-1214
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    • 2007
  • We define a skew-symmetric double Rayleigh distribution by a symmetric double Rayleigh distribution, and derive an approximate maximum likelihood estimator(AML) and a moment estimator(MME) of a skewed parameter in a skew-symmetric double Rayleigh distribution, and hence compare simulated mean squared errors of those two estimators. We also compare simulated mean squared errors of two proposed estimators of reliability in two independent skew-symmetric double Rayleigh distributions.

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A Study on the Estimation of Extreme Quantile of Probability Distribution (확률 분포형의 극치 수문량 예측 능력 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jinseok;Shin, Hongjoon;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.399-400
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    • 2017
  • 홍수나 가뭄 등 극치 현상의 통계분석 및 빈도해석에 있어 극치분포형이 널리 사용되고 있으며, 이러한 극치분포형의 특성을 이해하기 위해서는 분포형의 오른쪽 꼬리(right tail) 부분 특성을 자세히 분석할 필요가 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 Monte Carlo 모의를 통하여 다양한 극치분포형의 오른쪽 꼬리 부분의 통계적 특성 및 그 예측 능력을 연구하였다. 극치분포형으로는 우리나라 확률수문량 산정에 널리 활용되고 있는 generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel, generalized logistic 분포를 사용하였으며, 매개변수 산정 방법으로는 확률가중모멘트법을 사용하였다. 모의실험의 모분포로는 수문빈도해석에서 많이 사용되는 GEV 분포를 사용하였고, 30년 이상 자료를 보유한 기상청 지점 자료의 왜곡도를 조사하여 모의실험에 사용되는 모집단의 왜곡도로 가정하여 표본 자료를 발생시켰다. 예측 능력의 평가는 재현기간 10~1000년의 확률수문량을 왜곡도계수를 고려한 GEV 도시위치공식을 이용하여 GEV 확률지에 도시하고, 평균제곱근오차(root mean square error), 편의(bias), 평균상대오차(mean relative difference), 평균절대상대오차(mean absolute relative difference)를 이용하여 최적 분포형을 선정함으로써 이루어진다. 또한 예측 능력 평가결과의 타당성 확인을 위해 극치분포형의 적합정도를 잘 나타낸다고 알려진 modified Anderson-Darling 방법의 검정결과와 비교하여 적절성을 확인하였다.

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The exponential generalized log-logistic model: Bagdonavičius-Nikulin test for validation and non-Bayesian estimation methods

  • Ibrahim, Mohamed;Aidi, Khaoula;Alid, Mir Masoom;Yousof, Haitham M.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2022
  • A modified Bagdonavičius-Nikulin chi-square goodness-of-fit is defined and studied. The lymphoma data is analyzed using the modified goodness-of-fit test statistic. Different non-Bayesian estimation methods under complete samples schemes are considered, discussed and compared such as the maximum likelihood least square estimation method, the Cramer-von Mises estimation method, the weighted least square estimation method, the left tail-Anderson Darling estimation method and the right tail Anderson Darling estimation method. Numerical simulation studies are performed for comparing these estimation methods. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated using three real data sets and compared with many other well-known generalizations.

On the Effects of Plotting Positions to the Probability Weighted Moments Method for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

  • Kim, Myung-Suk
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.561-576
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    • 2007
  • Five plotting positions are applied to the computation of probability weighted moments (PWM) on the parameters of the generalized logistic distribution. Over a range of parameter values with some finite sample sizes, the effects of five plotting positions are investigated via Monte Carlo simulation studies. Our simulation results indicate that the Landwehr plotting position frequently tends to document smaller biases than others in the location and scale parameter estimations. On the other hand, the Weibull plotting position often tends to cause larger biases than others. The plotting position (i - 0.35)/n seems to report smaller root mean square errors (RMSE) than other plotting positions in the negative shape parameter estimation under small samples. In comparison to the maximum likelihood (ML) method under the small sample, the PWM do not seem to be better than the ML estimators in the location and scale parameter estimations documenting larger RMSE. However, the PWM outperform the ML estimators in the shape parameter estimation when its magnitude is near zero. Sensitivity of right tail quantile estimation regarding five plotting positions is also examined, but superiority or inferiority of any plotting position is not observed.

Estimations of the skew parameter in a skewed double power function distribution

  • Kang, Jun-Ho;Lee, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.901-909
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    • 2013
  • A skewed double power function distribution is defined by a double power function distribution. We shall evaluate the coefficient of the skewness of a skewed double power function distribution. We shall obtain an approximate maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and a moment estimator (MME) of the skew parameter in the skewed double power function distribution, and compare simulated mean squared errors for those estimators. And we shall compare simulated MSEs of two proposed reliability estimators in two independent skewed double power function distributions with different skew parameters.

Krawtchouk Polynomial Approximation for Binomial Convolutions

  • Ha, Hyung-Tae
    • Kyungpook Mathematical Journal
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.493-502
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    • 2017
  • We propose an accurate approximation method via discrete Krawtchouk orthogonal polynomials to the distribution of a sum of independent but non-identically distributed binomial random variables. This approximation is a weighted binomial distribution with no need for continuity correction unlike commonly used density approximation methods such as saddlepoint, Gram-Charlier A type(GC), and Gaussian approximation methods. The accuracy obtained from the proposed approximation is compared with saddlepoint approximations applied by Eisinga et al. [4], which are the most accurate method among higher order asymptotic approximation methods. The numerical results show that the proposed approximation in general provide more accurate estimates over the entire range for the target probability mass function including the right-tail probabilities. In addition, the method is mathematically tractable and computationally easy to program.

Reliability estimation and ratio distribution in a general exponential distribution

  • Lee, Chang-Soo;Moon, Yeung-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.623-632
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    • 2014
  • We shall consider the estimation for the parameter and the right tail probability in a general exponential distribution. We also shall consider the estimation of the reliability P(X < Y ) and the skewness trends of the density function of the ratio X=(X+Y) for two independent general exponential variables each having different shape parameters and known scale parameter. We then shall consider the estimation of the failure rate average and the hazard function for a general exponential variable having the density function with the unknown shape and known scale parameters, and for a bivariate density induced by the general exponential density.