• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prior Probability

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Noninformative Priors for the Intraclass Coefficient of a Symmetric Normal Distribution

  • Chang, In-Hong;Kim, Byung-Hwee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.15-19
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we develop the Jeffreys' prior, reference priors and the probability matching priors for the intraclass correlation coefficient of a symmetric normal distribution. We next verify propriety of posterior distributions under those noninformative priors. We examine whether reference priors satisfy the probability matching criterion.

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Bayesian estimation for Rayleigh models

  • Oh, Ji Eun;Song, Joon Jin;Sohn, Joong Kweon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.875-888
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    • 2017
  • The Rayleigh distribution has been commonly used in life time testing studies of the probability of surviving until mission time. We focus on a reliability function of the Rayleigh distribution and deal with prior distribution on R(t). This paper is an effort to obtain Bayes estimators of rayleigh distribution with three different prior distribution on the reliability function; a noninformative prior, uniform prior and inverse gamma prior. We have found the Bayes estimator and predictive density function of a future observation y with each prior distribution. We compare the performance of the Bayes estimators under different sample size and in simulation study. We also derive the most plausible region, prediction intervals for a future observation.

Bayesian Model Selection in the Gamma Populations

  • Kang, Sang-Gil;Kang, Doo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.1329-1341
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    • 2006
  • When X and Y have independent gamma distributions, we consider the testing problem for two gamma means. We propose a solution based on a Bayesian model selection procedure to this problem in which no subjective input is considered. The reference prior is derived. Using the derived reference prior, we compute the fractional Bayes factor and the intrinsic Bayes factors. The posterior probability of each model is used as a model selection tool. Simulation study and a real data example are provided.

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A BAYESIAN METHOD FOR FINDING MINIMUM GENERALIZED VARIANCE AMONG K MULTIVARIATE NORMAL POPULATIONS

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.411-423
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    • 2003
  • In this paper we develop a method for calculating a probability that a particular generalized variance is the smallest of all the K multivariate normal generalized variances. The method gives a way of comparing K multivariate populations in terms of their dispersion or spread, because the generalized variance is a scalar measure of the overall multivariate scatter. Fully parametric frequentist approach for the probability is intractable and thus a Bayesian method is pursued using a variant of weighted Monte Carlo (WMC) sampling based approach. Necessary theory involved in the method and computation is provided.

Noninformative Priors for the Ratio of the Failure Rates in Exponential Model

  • Cho, Jang-Sik;Baek, Sung-Uk
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.217-226
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we derive noninformative priors for the ratio of failure rates in exponential model. A class of priors is found by matching the coverage probabilities of one-sided Baysian credible interval with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. And we prove that the noninformative prior matches the alternative coverage probabilities and is a HPD matching prior up to the second order. Finally, we provide simulated freqentist coverage probabilities under the derived noninformative prior for small samples.

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Noninformative priors for the common shape parameter of several inverse Gaussian distributions

  • Kang, Sang Gil;Kim, Dal Ho;Lee, Woo Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.243-253
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we develop the noninformative priors for the common shape parameter of several inverse Gaussian distributions. Specially, we want to develop noninformative priors which satisfy certain objective criterion. The probability matching priors and reference priors of the common shape parameter will be developed. It turns out that the second order matching prior does not exist. The reference priors satisfy the first order matching criterion, but Jeffrey's prior is not the first order matching prior. We showed that the proposed reference prior matches the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense through simulation study, and an example based on real data is given.

Optimal Maintenance Policy Using Non-Informative Prior Distribution and Marcov Chain Monte Carlo Method (사전확률분포와 Marcov Chain Monte Carlo법을 이용한 최적보전정책 연구)

  • Ha, Jung Lang;Park, Minjae
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.188-196
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The purpose of this research is to determine optimal replacement age using non-informative prior information and Bayesian method. Methods: We propose a novel approach using Bayesian method to determine the optimal replacement age in block replacement policy by defining the prior probability with data on failure time and repair time. The Marcov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to investigate the asymptotic distribution of posterior parameters. Results: An optimal replacement age of block replacement policy is determined which minimizes cost and nonoperating time when no information on prior distribution of parameters is given. Conclusion: We find the posterior distribution of parameters when lack of information on prior distribution, so that the optimal replacement age which minimizes the total cost and maximizes the total values is determined.

Geostatistical Integration of Seismic Velocity and Resistivity Data for Probabilistic Evaluation of Rock Quality (탄성파 속도와 전기비저항 자료의 지구통계학적 복합해석에 의한 암반등급의 확률적 평가)

  • Oh, Seok-Hoon;Suh, Baek-Soo
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.293-298
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    • 2007
  • A new way to integrate various geophysical information for evaluation of RQD was developed. In this study, we does not directly define the RQD value where borehole data are not sampled. Instead, we infer the probability of RQD values with prior probability of data directly obtained from borehole, and secondary supporting probability from resistivity and seismic tomography data. First, we applied the geostatstical indicator kriging to get prior probability of RQD value, and indicator kriging with soft data to get the supporting probability from resistivity and seismic data. And we finally applied the permanence ratio rule to integrate these information. The finally obtained result was also analyzed to fully utilize the probabilistic features. For example, we showed the probability of wrongly classifying the RQD evaluation and vice versa. This kind of analytical result may be used for decision making process based on the geophysical exploration.

Noninformative Priors for Stress-Strength System in the Burr-Type X Model

  • Kim, Dal-Ho;Kang, Sang-Gil;Cho, Jang-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we develop noninformative priors that are used for estimating the reliability of stress-strength system under the Burr-type X model. A class of priors is found by matching the coverage probabilities of one-sided Bayesian credible interval with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. It turns out that the reference prior as well as the Jeffreys prior are the second order matching prior. The propriety of posterior under the noninformative priors is proved. The frequentist coverage probabilities are investigated for samll samples via simulation study.

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Bayesian Analysis for the Error Variance in a Two-Way Mixed-Effects ANOVA Model Using Noninformative Priors (무정보 사전분포를 이용한 이원배치 혼합효과 분산분석모형에서 오차분산에 대한 베이지안 분석)

  • 장인홍;김병휘
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.405-414
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    • 2002
  • We consider the problem of estimating the error variance of in a two-way mixed-effects ANOVA model using noninformative priors. First, we derive Jeffreys' prior, a reference prior, and matching priors. We then provide marginal posterior distributions under those noninformative priors. Finally, we provide graphs of marginal posterior densities of the error variance and credible intervals for the error variance in two real data set and compare these credible intervals.