• Title/Summary/Keyword: Potential scenarios

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Cradle to Gate Emissions Modeling for Scheduling of Construction Projects

  • Sharma, Achintyamugdha;Deka, Priyanka;Jois, Goutam;Jois, Umesh;Tang, Pei
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.975-983
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    • 2022
  • This paper presents an innovative way of integrating scheduling and project controls with the environmental impact of a construction project to track, monitor, and manage environmental emissions at the activity level. As a starting point, scheduling and project controls help monitor the status of a project to provide an assessment of the duration and sequence of activities. Additionally, project schedules can also reflect resource allocation and costs associated with various phases of a construction project. Owners, contractors and construction managers closely monitor tasks or activities on the critical path(s) and/or longest path(s) calculated through network based scheduling techniques. However, existing industry practices do not take into account environmental impact associated with each activity during the life cycle of a project. Although the environmental impact of a project may be tracked in various ways, that tracking is not tied to the project schedule and, as such, generally is not updated when schedules are revised. In this research, a Cradle to Gate approach is used to estimate environmental emissions associated with each activity of a sample project schedule. The research group has also investigated the potential determination of scenarios of lowest environmental emissions, just as project managers currently determine scenarios with lowest cost or time. This methodology can be scaled up for future work to develop a library of unit emissions associated with commonly used construction materials and equipment. This will be helpful for project owners, contractors, and construction managers to monitor, manage, and reduce the carbon footprint associated with various projects.

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Feasibility and performance limitations of Supercritical carbon dioxide direct-cycle micro modular reactors in primary frequency control scenarios

  • Seongmin Son;Jeong Ik Lee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.1254-1266
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    • 2024
  • This study investigates the application of supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO2) direct-cycle micro modular reactors (MMRs) in primary frequency control (PFC), which is a scenario characterized by significant load fluctuations that has received less attention compared to secondary load-following. Using a modified GAMMA + code and a deep neural network-based turbomachinery off-design model, the authors conducted an analysis to assess the behavior of the reactor core and fluid system under different PFC scenarios. The results indicate that the acceptable range for sudden relative electricity output (REO) fluctuations is approximately 20%p which aligns with the performance of combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs). In S-CO2 direct-cycle MMRs, the control of the core operates passively within the operational range by managing coolant density through inventory control. However, when PFC exceeds 35%p, system control failure is observed, suggesting the need for improved control strategies. These findings affirm the potential of S-CO2 direct-cycle MMRs in PFC operations, representing an advancement in the management of grid fluctuations while ensuring reliable and carbon-free power generation.

Event diagnosis method for a nuclear power plant using meta-learning

  • Hee-Jae Lee;Daeil Lee;Jonghyun Kim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.1989-2001
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    • 2024
  • Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are now being considered in the nuclear field, but application faces with the lack of actual plant data. For this reason, most previous studies on AI applications in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have relied on simulators or thermal-hydraulic codes to mimic the plants. However, it remains uncertain whether an AI model trained using a simulator can properly work in an actual NPP. To address this issue, this study suggests the use of metadata, which can give information about parameter trends. Referred to here as robust AI, this concept started with the idea that although the absolute value of a plant parameter differs between a simulator and actual NPP, the parameter trend is identical under the same scenario. Based on the proposed robust AI, this study designs an event diagnosis algorithm to classify abnormal and emergency scenarios in NPPs using prototypical learning. The algorithm was trained using a simulator referencing a Westinghouse 990 MWe reactor and then tested in different environments in Advanced Power Reactor 1400 MWe simulators. The algorithm demonstrated robustness with 100 % diagnostic accuracy (117 out of 117 scenarios). This indicates the potential of the robust AI-based algorithm to be used in actual plants.

Identifying the Dynamic Structure of Mobile Banking Market: The System Dynamics Perspective (모바일 뱅킹 시장의 동태적 구조 분석: 시스템 다이내믹스 관점)

  • Kim, Hyo-Gun;Yun, Sun-Hee;Suh, Hyun-Ju
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.99-124
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    • 2006
  • The development of IT has made it possible to use various terminal systems for financial transaction and demands for financial survices are getting more and more diversified at the same time. Among others, mobile banking service market based on IC chips has been expanded its service areas and the number of mobile banking users has been increased. The study analyzes and tests the dynamic effects of the inflow of potential customers on mobile banking market condition by using system dynamics methodology to identify the dynamic structure of mobile banking market. The simulation model is designed to track the variation in the number of subscribers of mobile banking servides according to two scenarios, and the results are as follows; First the effect of word of mouth by customers who have used the service already is significant. The satisfactory level of early adopters is reflected in WOM, and as a test result shows, increase in word-of-mouth causes the growth of potential customers' demands for mobile banking service. Second, perceived attractiveness of mobile banking service market is another important construct. Factors such as convenience, mobility, time saving, security, and various services explain the construct perceived attractiveness of the service, and it makes the potential customers adopt the service, causing the increase of demands.

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The Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in Rivers Basin of Korea Using Rainfall Elasticity

  • Kim, Byung Sik;Hong, Seung Jin;Lee, Hyun Dong
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, the rainfall elasticity of streamflow was estimated to quantify the effects of climate change on 5 river basins. Rainfall elasticity denotes the sensitivity of annual streamflow for the variations of potential annual rainfall. This is a simple, useful method that evaluates how the balance of a water cycle on river basins changes due to long-term climate change and offers information to manage water resources and environment systems. The elasticity method was first used by Schaake in 1990 and is commonly used in the United States and Australia. A semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP, semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes) was used to simulate the variations of area streamflow, and potential evapotranspiration. A nonparametric method was then used to estimate the rainfall elasticity on five river basins of Korea. In addition, the A2 (SRES IPCC AR4, Special Report on Emission Scenarios IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) climate change scenario and stochastic downscaling technique were used to create a high-resolution weather change scenario in river basins, and the effects of climate change on the rainfall elasticity of each basin were then analyzed.

Safety Analysis of Potential Hazards at Hydrogen Refueling Station (수소충전소 잠재적 위험에 대한 안전성해석)

  • Park, Woo-Il;Kim, Dong-Hwan;Kang, Seung-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.43-48
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted using FLACS, a specialized gas accident analysis program. Hydrogen refueling stations subject of safety analysis, consist of compression facilities, storage tanks, and hydrogen piping. The safety analysis of potential risk factors was conducted after reflecting the design specifications of major facilities and components, environmental conditions around hydrogen refueling stations, etc. As of 2021, about 70 refueling stations in Korea are available, and 1,200 are scheduled to be introduced in the next 2040. To prepare for possible accidents caused by potential hazards for the safe distribution of hydrogen refueling stations, we intend to derive hydrogen leakage diffusion scenarios and review their safety.

Estimation of the soil liquefaction potential through the Krill Herd algorithm

  • Yetis Bulent Sonmezer;Ersin Korkmaz
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.487-506
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    • 2023
  • Looking from the past to the present, the earthquakes can be said to be type of disaster with most casualties among natural disasters. Soil liquefaction, which occurs under repeated loads such as earthquakes, plays a major role in these casualties. In this study, analytical equation models were developed to predict the probability of occurrence of soil liquefaction. In this context, the parameters effective in liquefaction were determined out of 170 data sets taken from the real field conditions of past earthquakes, using WEKA decision tree. Linear, Exponential, Power and Quadratic models have been developed based on the identified earthquake and ground parameters using Krill Herd algorithm. The Exponential model, among the models including the magnitude of the earthquake, fine grain ratio, effective stress, standard penetration test impact number and maximum ground acceleration parameters, gave the most successful results in predicting the fields with and without the occurrence of liquefaction. This proposed model enables the researchers to predict the liquefaction potential of the soil in advance according to different earthquake scenarios. In this context, measures can be realized in regions with the high potential of liquefaction and these measures can significantly reduce the casualties in the event of a new earthquake.

Habitat Prediction and Impact Assessment of Eurya japonica Thunb. under Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 한반도 사스레피나무의 생육지 예측과 영향 평가)

  • Yun, Jong-Hak;Park, Jeong Soo;Choi, Jong-Yun;Nakao, Katsuhiro
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.291-302
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    • 2017
  • The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Eurya japonica, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the warmth index (WI), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipitaion (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Seventeen general circulation models under RCP (Representative concentration pathway) 8.5 scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for E. japonica. The model of distribution for E. japonica constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of E. japonica. The area above the $-5.7^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the E. japonica. Future PHs for E. japonica were projected to increase respectively by 2.5 times, 3.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of E. japonica habitats is expanded gradually. E. japonica is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. E. japonica is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

A Study on the Corrosivity according to Soil Characteristics and Electrolytic Protection for the Materials of Fuel Gas Pipe (토양 특성 및 전기방식에 따른 연료 가스용 강관의 부식 차이에 관한 연구)

  • Yim, Sang-Sik;Kim, Ji-sun;Ryu, Young-don;Lee, Jin-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.16-22
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    • 2016
  • Coating pipe(PLP) has been generally used in buried site for protecting the corrosion. To prevent the damage by occurring the defect, other construction or execution works, an anti-oxidation environment was forcibly made by using protective potential. Coating and protective potential are applied simultaneously, but corrosion rate or defects are not easy to observe because soil composition has many uncertainty. Also, defect of coating pipe can not be directly observed. A corrosion coupon can easily measure a corrosion rate directly. The corrosion rate was measured with 6 scenarios using corrosion coupon during about 1 year(6 scenarios are based on soil type and protective potential or not in this research. Resultingly, the corrosion coupon has not occurred in the case of protected by potential current, but corrosion has occurred in a non-protected site. The corrosion rate was measured at least in the clay, and the propensity of corrosion rate was similar in other soil(sand and loams). The local corrosion has occurred in the clay because of high water content. On the other hand, general corrosion was occurred in sand and loams. Commonly, sand is not to corrosive soil. Although, corrosion occurred in sand can be estimated by chemical component and valid with chemical analysis report.

A Study on the Contingency Planning Methods under the Analysis of Oil Spill Potential -Application to the Port of Busan- (유류오염 포텐셜 해석을 통한 방제대책 수립방법에 관한 연구 -부산항을 중심으로-)

  • Jeon, Yong-Ho;Ryu, Cheong-Ro;Hwang, Chang-Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.297-302
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    • 2003
  • This study was carried out to check the contingency planning methods under the analysis of oil spill potential and make a guide line to apply the results to the port of Busan. The expected spilled oil drift patterns are considered with the most probable scenarios under the base of the oil spill potential. The results obtained from this study are as follows: (1) Analysis method of oil spill potent was proposed and the applicability was proved by the application example to the port of Busan to make the contingency plan. (2) Responsible oil spill contingency planning methods / flow are suggested considered environmental factors and the oil spill potential. (3) The coastal waters of Busan was consist of rocky flat, man-made solid shore and beach shore. Marine traffic have high density of oil tanker and cargo ship. Also, oil tanker ship are examined in the small ships to be less than 3000t to supply oil to the ship moored / anchored as well as the large amount of oil tank / basin are located along the coast of Busan port. These systems are introduced to make in put data to the analysis of oil spill potential. (4) According to the analysis of historical records of oil spill accident in Busan, the frequency of accidents by cargo ship rank highest and 45% of accidents is caused by carelessness. about 65% of total accidents shows a small spill accident of less than $10k{\ell}$.

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