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http://dx.doi.org/10.14249/eia.2017.26.5.291

Habitat Prediction and Impact Assessment of Eurya japonica Thunb. under Climate Change in Korea  

Yun, Jong-Hak (Div. of Ecological Assessment, National Institute of Ecology)
Park, Jeong Soo (Div. of Ecological Assessment, National Institute of Ecology)
Choi, Jong-Yun (Div. of Ecological Assessment, National Institute of Ecology)
Nakao, Katsuhiro (Dep. of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment / v.26, no.5, 2017 , pp. 291-302 More about this Journal
Abstract
The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Eurya japonica, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the warmth index (WI), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipitaion (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Seventeen general circulation models under RCP (Representative concentration pathway) 8.5 scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for E. japonica. The model of distribution for E. japonica constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of E. japonica. The area above the $-5.7^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the E. japonica. Future PHs for E. japonica were projected to increase respectively by 2.5 times, 3.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of E. japonica habitats is expanded gradually. E. japonica is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. E. japonica is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.
Keywords
Species distribution model; Indicator; Potential habitats;
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