• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte-Carlo methods

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Experimental Measurement and Monte Carlo Simulation the Correction Factor for the Medium-Energy X-ray Free-air Ionization Chamber

  • Yu, Jili;Wu, Jinjie;Liao, Zhenyu;Zhou, Zhenjie
    • Journal of the Korean Physical Society
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    • v.73 no.10
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    • pp.1466-1472
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    • 2018
  • A key comparison has been made between the air-kerma standards of the National Institute of Metrology (NIM), China, and other Asia Pacific Metrology Programme (APMP) members in the medium-energy X-ray. This paper reviews the primary standard Free-air ionization chamber correction factor experimental method and Monte Carlo simulation method in the NIM. The experimental method and the Monte Carlo simulation method are adopted to obtain the correction factor for the medium-energy X-ray primary standard free-air ionization chamber at 100 kV, 135 kV, 180 kV, 250 kV four CCRI reference qualities. The correction factor has already been submitted to the APMP as key comparison data and the results are in good agreement with those obtained in previous studies. This study shows that the experimental method and the EGSnrc simulation method are usually used in the measurement of the correction factor. In particular, the application of the simulation methods is more common.

Application of Markov Chains and Monte Carlo Simulations for Pavement Construction Engineering

  • Nega, Ainalem;Gedafa, Daba
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.1043-1050
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    • 2022
  • Markov chains and Monte Carlo Simulation were applied to account for the probabilistic nature of pavement deterioration over time using data collected in the field. The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate pavement network performance of Western Australia (WA) by applying the existing pavement management tools relevant to WA road construction networks. Two approaches were used to analyze the pavement networks: evaluating current pavement performance data to assess WA State Road networks and predicting the future states using past and current pavement data. The Markov chains process and Monte Carlo Simulation methods were used to predicting future conditions. The results indicated that Markov chains and Monte Carlo Simulation prediction models perform well compared to pavement performance data from the last four decades. The results also revealed the impact of design, traffic demand, and climate and construction standards on urban pavement performance. This study recommends an appropriate and effective pavement engineering management system for proper pavement design and analysis, preliminary planning, future pavement maintenance and rehabilitation, service life, and sustainable pavement construction functionality.

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Sensitivity of a control rod worth estimate to neutron detector position by time-dependent Monte Carlo simulations of the rod drop experiment

  • Jong Min Park;Cheol Ho Pyeon;Hyung Jin Shim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.916-921
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    • 2024
  • The control rod worth sensitivity to the neutron detector position in the rod drop experiment is studied by the time-dependent Monte Carlo (TDMC) neutron transport calculations for AGN-201K educational reactor and the Kyoto University Critical Assembly. The TDMC simulations of the rod drop experiments are conducted by the Seoul National University Monte Carlo (MC) code, McCARD, yielding time-dependent neutron densities at detector positions. The detector-position-dependent results of the total control rod worth calculated by the extrapolation, the integral counting, and the inverse methods are compared with the numerical reference using the MC eigenvalue calculations and the experimental results. From these comparisons, it is observed that the total control rod worth can be estimated with a considerable difference depending on the detector position through the rod drop experiment. The proposed TDMC simulation of the rod drop experiment can be applied for searching a better detector position or quantifying a bias for the control rod worth measurement.

Estimation Using Monte Carlo Methods in Nonlinear Random Coefficient Models (몬테카를로법을 이용한 비선형 확률계수모형의 추정)

  • 김성연
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.31-46
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    • 2001
  • Repeated measurements on units under different conditions are common in biological and biomedical studies. In a number of growth and pharmacokinetic studies, the relationship between the response and the covariates is assumed to be nonlinear in some unknown parameters and the form remains the same for all units. Nonlinear random coefficient models are used to analyze such repeated measurement data. Extended least squares methods are proposed in the literature for estimating the parameters of the model. However, neither objective function has closed form expression in practice. This paper proposes Monte Carlo methods to estimate the objective functions and the corresponding estimators. A simulation study that compare various methods is included.

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Reliability Assessment for Corroded Pipelines by Separable Monte Carlo Method (Separable Monte Carlo 방법을 적용한 부식배관 신뢰도평가)

  • Lee, Jin-Han;Jo, Young-Do;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.81-86
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    • 2015
  • A deterministic stress-based methodology has traditionally been applied in pipeline design. Meanwhile, reliability based design and assessment (RBDA) methodology has been extensively applied in offshore or nuclear structures. Lately, the release of ISO standard on reliability based limit state methods for pipelines ISO16708 indicates that the RBDA methodology is one of the newest directions of natural gas pipeline design method. This paper presents a case study of the RBDA procedure for predicting the time-dependent failure probability of pipelines with corrosion defects, where separable Monte Carlo (SMC) method is applied in the reliability estimation for corroded pipeline instead of traditional, crude Monte Carlo(CMC) Method. The result shows the SMC method take advantage of improving accuracy in reliability calculation.

Monte-Carlo Methods for Social Network Analysis (사회네트워크분석에서 몬테칼로 방법의 활용)

  • Huh, Myung-Hoe;Lee, Yong-Goo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.401-409
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    • 2011
  • From a social network of n nodes connected by l lines, one may produce centrality measures such as closeness, betweenness and so on. In the past, the magnitude of n was around 1,000 or 10,000 at most. Nowadays, some networks have 10,000, 100,000 or even more than that. Thus, the scalability issue needs the attention of researchers. In this short paper, we explore random networks of the size around n = 100,000 by Monte-Carlo method and propose Monte-Carlo algorithms of computing closeness and betweenness centrality measures to study the small world properties of social networks.

The Prediction of Failure Probability of Bridges using Monte Carlo Simulation and Lifetime Functions (몬테칼로법과 생애함수를 이용한 교량의 파괴확률예측)

  • Seung-Ie Yang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.116-122
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    • 2003
  • Monte Carlo method is one of the powerful engineering tools especially to solve the complex non-linear problems. The Monte Carlo method gives approximate solution to a variety of mathematical problems by performing statistical sampling experiments on a computer. One of the methods to predict the time dependent failure probability of one of the bridge components or the bridge system is a lifetime function. In this paper, FORTRAN program is developed to predict the failure probability of bridge components or bridge system by using both system reliability and lifetime function. Monte Carlo method is used to generate the parameters of the lifetime function. As a case study, the program is applied to the concrete-steel bridge to predict the failure probability.

Photon dose calculation of pencil beam kernel based treatment planning system compared to the Monte Carlo simulation

  • Cheong, Kwang-Ho;Suh, Tae-Suk;Kim, Hoi-Nam;Lee, Hyoung-Koo;Choe, Bo-Young;Yoon, Sei-Chul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Medical Physics Conference
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    • 2002.09a
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    • pp.291-293
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    • 2002
  • Accurate dose calculation in radiation treatment planning is most important for successful treatment. Since human body is composed of various materials and not an ideal shape, it is not easy to calculate the accurate effective dose in the patients. Many methods have been proposed to solve the inhomogeneity and surface contour problems. Monte Carlo simulations are regarded as the most accurate method, but it is not appropriate for routine planning because it takes so much time. Pencil beam kernel based convolution/superposition methods were also proposed to correct those effects. Nowadays, many commercial treatment planning systems, including Pinnacle and Helax-TMS, have adopted this algorithm as a dose calculation engine. The purpose of this study is to verify the accuracy of the dose calculated from pencil beam kernel based treatment planning system Helax-TMS comparing to Monte Carlo simulations and measurements especially in inhomogeneous region. Home-made inhomogeneous phantom, Helax-TMS ver. 6.0 and Monte Carlo code BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc were used in this study. Dose calculation results from TPS and Monte Carlo simulation were verified by measurements. In homogeneous media, the accuracy was acceptable but in inhomogeneous media, the errors were more significant.

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A Ship-Valuation Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션방법을 이용한 선박가치 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Suk;Lee, Ki-Hwan;Nam, Jong-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2015
  • This study utilizes Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the time charter rate of vessels, the three-month Libor interest rate, and the ship demolition price, to mitigate future uncertainties involving these factors. The simulation was performed 10,000 times to obtain an exact result. For the empirical analysis - based on considerations in ordering ships in 2010-a comparison between the Monte Carlo simulation-based stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) method and traditional DCF methods was made. The analysis revealed that the net present value obtained through Monte Carlo simulation was lower than that obtained via regular DCF methods, alerting the owners to risks and preventing them from placing injudicious orders for ships. This research has implications in reducing the uncertainties that future shipping markets face, through the use of a stochastic DCF approach with relevant variables and probability methods.

Prediction Intervals for Proportional Hazard Rate Models Based on Progressively Type II Censored Samples

  • Asgharzadeh, A.;Valiollahi, R.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we present two methods for obtaining prediction intervals for the times to failure of units censored in multiple stages in a progressively censored sample from proportional hazard rate models. A numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are presented to illustrate the prediction methods.