Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas (한국가스학회지)

The Korean Institute of GAS (한국가스학회)
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Reliability Assessment for Corroded Pipelines by Separable Monte Carlo Method

Separable Monte Carlo 방법을 적용한 부식배관 신뢰도평가

  • Lee, Jin-Han (Institute of Gas Safety R&D, Korea Gas Safety Corporation) ;
  • Jo, Young-Do (Institute of Gas Safety R&D, Korea Gas Safety Corporation) ;
  • Kim, Lae Hyun (Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National Univ. of Technology)
  • 이진한 (한국가스안전공사 가스안전연구원) ;
  • 조영도 (한국가스안전공사 가스안전연구원) ;
  • 김래현 (서울과학기술대학교 화공생명공학과)
  • Received : 2015.09.21
  • Accepted : 2015.10.23
  • Published : 2015.10.30
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Abstract

A deterministic stress-based methodology has traditionally been applied in pipeline design. Meanwhile, reliability based design and assessment (RBDA) methodology has been extensively applied in offshore or nuclear structures. Lately, the release of ISO standard on reliability based limit state methods for pipelines ISO16708 indicates that the RBDA methodology is one of the newest directions of natural gas pipeline design method. This paper presents a case study of the RBDA procedure for predicting the time-dependent failure probability of pipelines with corrosion defects, where separable Monte Carlo (SMC) method is applied in the reliability estimation for corroded pipeline instead of traditional, crude Monte Carlo(CMC) Method. The result shows the SMC method take advantage of improving accuracy in reliability calculation.

배관설계에 있어 스트레스에 기반한 결정론적 방법이 전통적으로 사용되어 왔다. 한편, 신뢰도기반 설계 및 평가(RBDA) 방법론은 해양 또는 원자력 구조물에 대해 적용되어 왔다. 최근 들어 배관의 한계상태법에 기반한 신뢰도에 대해 ISO 규격 즉, ISO 16708의 출간은 RDBA 방법론이 천연가스배관 설계의 최신방향 중에 하나라는 것을 보여준다. 본 논문은 부식결함을 가진 배관의 시간 의존적 파손 확률을 예측하는 절차에 대한 사례연구를 보여준다. 여기서 전통적인 부식 배관의 신뢰도를 추정하는 데 crude Monte Carlo (CMC) 법을 사용하는 대신에 separable Monte Carlo (SMC) method 적용한다. 그 결과 SMC 방법은 신뢰도 계산에 효율을 향상시키는 장점을 보여준다.

Keywords

References

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