• 환경영향평가
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.593-607
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• 2012

The Ministry of Environment have started the 'National Ecosystem Survey' since 1986. It has been carried out nationwide every ten years as the largest survey project in Korea. The second one and the third one produced the GIS-based inventory of species. Three survey methods were different from each other. There were few studies for species distribution using national survey data in Korea. The purposes of this study are to test species distribution models for finding the most suitable modeling methods for the National Ecosystem Survey data and to investigate the modeling results according to survey methods and taxonominal group. Occurrence data of nine species were extracted from the National Ecosystem Survey by taxonomical group (plant, mammal, and bird). Plants are Korean winter hazel (Corylopsis coreana), Iris odaesanensis (Iris odaesanensis), and Berchemia (Berchemia berchemiaefolia). Mammals are Korean Goral (Nemorhaedus goral), Marten (Martes flavigula koreana), and Leopard cat (Felis bengalensis). Birds are Black Woodpecker (Dryocopus martius), Eagle Owl (Bubo Bubo), and Common Buzzard (Buteo buteo). Environmental variables consisted of climate, topography, soil and vegetation structure. Two modeling methods (GAM, Maxent) were tested across nine species, and predictive species maps of target species were produced. The results of this study were as follows. Firstly, Maxent showed similar 5 cross-validated AUC with GAM. Maxent is more useful model to develop than GAM because National Ecosystem Survey data has presence-only data. Therefore, Maxent is more useful species distribution model for National Ecosystem Survey data. Secondly, the modeling results between the second and third survey methods showed sometimes different because of each different surveying methods. Therefore, we need to combine two data for producing a reasonable result. Lastly, modeling result showed different predicted distribution pattern by taxonominal group. These results should be considered if we want to develop a species distribution model using the National Ecosystem Survey and apply it to a nationwide biodiversity research.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.427-437
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• 2019

Background: Climate change is believed to be continuously affecting ticks by influencing their habitat suitability. However, we attempted to model the climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus distribution considering the major environmental factors that would influence the tick. Therefore, 50 tick occuance points were taken to model the potential distribution using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) software and 19 climatic variables, taking into account the ability for future climatic change under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used. Results: MaxEnt model performance was tested and found with the AUC value of 0.99 which indicates excellent goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the mid and end terms together with possible changes of other climatic factors like precipitation which may lead to higher tick-borne disease risks associated with expansion of the range of the targeted tick distribution. Distribution maps were constructed for the current, 2050, and 2070 for the two greenhouse gas scenarios and the most dramatic scenario; RCP 8.5 produced the highest increase probable distribution range. Conclusions: The future potential distribution of the genus Rhipicephalus show potential expansion to the new areas due to the future climatic suitability increase. These results indicate that the genus population of the targeted tick could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking; increased incidence of tick-borne diseases poses further risk which can affect cattle production and productivity, thereby affecting the livelihood of smallholding farmers. Therefore, it is recommended to implement climate change adaptation practices to minimize the impacts.

• 한국지형학회지
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.91-101
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• 2017

Quantitative forecasting methods based on spatial data and geographic information system have been used in predicting the landslide location. This study compared the simulated results of logistic, Bayesian, and maximum entropy models to understand the uncertainties of each model and identify the main factors that influence landslide. The study area is Boeun gun where 388 landslides occurred in the year of 1998. The verification results showed that the AUC of the three models was 0.84. However, the landslide susceptibility distribution of Maxent model was different from those of the other two models. With the same landslide occurrence data, the result of high susceptible area in Maxent model is smaller than Logistic or Bayesian. Maxent model, however, proved to be more efficient in predicting landslide than the other two models. In Maxent's simulations, the responsible factors for landslide susceptibility are timber age class, land cover, timber diameter, crown closure, and soil drainage. The results suggest that it is necessary to consider the possibility of overestimation when using Logistic or Bayesian model, and forest management around the study area can be an effective way to minimize landslide possibility.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제40권12호
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• pp.957-968
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• 2007

수자원의 정량적인 계획과 관리를 위해서는 정확하고 신뢰성 높은 유량 자료가 필수적이다. 이에 따라 최근에 초음파유량계와 유속지수법 등의 실시간 유량 측정 방법이 도입되고 있다. 이러한 방법들은 단면의 일부분에서 측정한 유속을 이용하여 전체 단면의 유량을 산정하고 있으므로 하천 단면의 2차원적 유속분포에 대한 합리적이고 이론적인 기초가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 Chiu(1987, 1988)가 제안한 2차원 유속분포식을 자연하천에 적용하고 ADCP 실측 자료를 이용하여 비교 분석함으로써 적용성을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 실측 자료로부터 최대유속과 평균유속을 계산한 후 매개변수 M을 산정하였다. 등유속선 형상 매개변수는 최소자승합 기준의 목적함수를 이용하여 추정하였다. 최적화된 매개변수를 적용하여 도출된 엔트로피 유속분포를 실측 유속분포와 비교한 결과, 대체로 잘 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. 상관도가 높게 나타나는 14개의 실측 자료를 이용하여 매개변수 h, $\beta_i$의 특성을 분석한 후 미측정 단면에 적용할 수 있도록 그 값을 추정하였다. 추정된 매개변수를 검증을 위한 자료에 적용한 결과 역시 실측 자료를 대체로 잘 재현하는 것으로 나타났다. 유량의 경우 최대 7% 의 오차로 실측 자료와 대체로 비슷하게 산정하였다. Chiu의 유속분포식에 관여하는 매개변수를 적절히 추정한다면 자연하천의 유속분포를 잘 모의할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.54-65
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• 2022

Species distribution models are a useful tool for predicting future distribution and establishing a preemptive response of invasive species. However, few studies considered the possibility of habitat for the aquatic organism and the number of target sites was relatively small compared to the area. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is the emerging tool as the methodology obtaining the bulk of species presence data with high detectability. Thus, this study applied eDNA survey results of Micropterus salmoides and Lepomis macrochirus to species distribution modeling by seasons in the Anyang stream network. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model evaluated that both species extended potential distribution area in October compared to July from 89.1% (12,110,675 m²) to 99.3% (13,625,525 m²) for M. salmoides and 76.6% (10,407,350 m²) to 100% (13,724,225 m²) for L. macrochirus. The prediction value by streams was varied according to species and seasons. Also, models elucidate the significant environmental variables which affect the distribution by seasons and species. Our results identified the potential of eDNA methodology as a way to retrieve species data effectively and use data for building a model.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제50권7호
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• pp.475-488
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• 2017

정확히 가뭄을 모의하기 위해서는 수문기상학적 현상을 반영할 수 있는 가뭄지수가 필요하며, 국내에서 수문학적 가뭄을 모의하기 위해 MSWSI (Modified Surface Water Supply Index)를 활용한 여러 연구가 진행되었다. 본 연구에서는 MSWSI의 한계점을 분석하고 MSWSI의 불확실성을 정량화하였다. 우선 MSWSI 인자로서 활용가능한 수문기상인자의 선정에 따른 영향을 분석하였다. 기존 MSWSI에 적용한 하천유량, 지하수위, 강수, 댐유입량의 4개 입력인자별로 하나의 관측소자료만을 이용하였으나 본 연구에서는 중권역별 특성에 맞도록 댐저수위와 댐방류량도 포함하였으며, 여러 관측소의 자료를 취득하여 면적평균자료를 사용하였다. 2001년과 2006년 가뭄사례에 대해 MSWSI 모의검증 결과, 본 연구의 MSWSI가 실측수문기상자료의 경향을 더 잘 반영하여 가뭄을 모의하였으며, MSWSI 인자의 선정이 가뭄모의 정확성에 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 다음으로 MSWSI 인자에 적용하는 확률분포의 선정에 따른 영향을 분석하였다. 강수자료는 Gumbel와 GEV 분포, 하천자료는 정규분포와 Gumbel 분포, 댐자료는 2-매개변수 대수정규분포와 Gumbel, 지하수는 3-매개변수 대수정규분포를 따르는 것으로 나타났다. 이에 따라 중권역별로 최대 36개의 MSWSI를 산정하였으며, 확률분포의 선정에 따라 MSWSI 범위가 매우 다르게 나타나 어떠한 확률분포을 적용하느냐에 따라 MSWSI 결과는 매우 달라질 수 있음을 확인하였다. 마지막으로 maximum entropy를 이용하여 MSWSI 입력인자의 선정과 입력인자별 확률분포 선정의 영향에 따른 불확실성을 정량화하였다. 분석결과, 입력인자의 수가 많이 적용될수록 불확실성은 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, 홍수기에 MSWSI 입력인자별 확률분포 적용에 따라 MSWSI의 불확실성이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.203-214
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• 2011

The objectives of this research were to predict land-use/land-cover change at the Sakaerat Environmental Research Station (SERS) and to analyze its consequences on the distribution for Black-crested Bulbul (Pycnonotus melanicterus), which is a popular species for bird-watching activity. The Dyna-CLUE model was used to determine land-use allocation between 2008 and 2020 under two scenarios. Trend scenario was a continuation of recent land-use change (2002-2008), while the integrated land-use management scenario aimed to protect 45% of study area under intact forest, rehabilitated forest and reforestation for renewable energy. The maximum entropy model (Maxent), Geographic Information System (GIS) and FRAGSTATS package were used to predict bird occurrence and assess landscape fragmentation indices, respectively. The results revealed that parts of secondary growth, agriculture areas and dry dipterocarp forest close to road networks would be converted to other land use classes, especially eucalyptus plantation. Distance to dry evergreen forest, distance to secondary growth and distance to road were important factors for Black-crested Bulbul distribution because this species prefers to inhabit ecotones between dense forest and open woodland. The predicted for occurrence of Black-crested Bulbul in 2008 covers an area of 3,802 ha and relatively reduces to 3,342 ha in 2020 for trend scenario and to 3,627 ha for integrated-land use management scenario. However, intact habitats would be severely fragmented, which can be noticed by total habitat area, largest patch index and total core area indices, especially under the trend scenario. These consequences are likely to diminish the recreation and education values of the SERS to the public.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.243-248
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• 2015

This study was conducted to predict the changes of potential distribution for invasive alien plant, Conyza bonariensis in Korea. C. bonariensis was found in southern Korea (Jeju, south coast, southwest coast). The habitats of C. bonariensis were roadside, bare ground, farm area, and pasture, where the interference by human was severe. Due to the seed characteristics of Compositae, C. bonariensis take long scattering distance and it will easily spread by movement of wind, vehicles and people. C. canadensis in same Conyza genus has already spread on a national scale and it is difficult to manage. We used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) for analyzing the environmental influences on C. bonariensis distribution and projecting on two different RCP scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results of our study indicated annual mean temperature, elevation and temperature seasonality had higher contribution for C. bonariensis potential distribution. Area under curve (AUC) values of the model was 0.9. Under future climate scenario, the constructed model predicted that potential distribution of C. bonariensis will be increased by 338% on RCP 4.5 and 769% on RCP 8.5 in 2100s.

• 한국임상수의학회지
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.23-29
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• 2019

While research findings suggest that the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is the leading cause of economic loss in Korean poultry industry with an estimated cumulative impact of $909 million since 2003, identifying the environmental and anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. The objective of this study was to identify areas at high risk for potential HPAI outbreaks according to the likelihood of HPAI virus detection in wild birds. This study integrates spatial information regarding HPAI surveillance with relevant demographic and environmental factors collected between 2003 and 2018. The Maximum Entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling with presence-only data was used to model the spatial risk of HPAI virus. We used historical data on HPAI occurrence in wild birds during the period 2003-2018, collected by the National Quarantine Inspection Agency of Korea. The database contains a total of 1,065 HPAI cases (farms) tied to 168 unique locations for wild birds. Among the environmental variables, the most effective predictors of the potential distribution of HPAI in wild birds were (in order of importance) altitude, number of HPAI outbreaks at farm-level, daily amount of manure processed and number of wild birds migrated into Korea. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the 10 Maxent replicate runs of the model with twelve variables was 0.855 with a standard deviation of 0.012 which indicates that the model performance was excellent. Results revealed that geographic area at risk of HPAI is heterogeneously distributed throughout the country with higher likelihood in the west and coastal areas. The results may help biosecurity authority to design risk-based surveillance and implementation of control interventions optimized for the areas at highest risk of HPAI outbreak potentials.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.55-64
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• 2017

The problem of the population number of honeybees that is decreasing not only domestically but also globally, has a great influence on human beings and the entire ecosystem. The habitat of honeybees is recognized to be superior in urban environment rather than rural environment, and predicting for habitat assessment and conservation is necessary. Based on this, we targeted Cheonan City and neighboring administrative areas where the distribution of agricultural areas, urban areas, and forest areas is displayed equally. In order to predict the habitat preferred by honeybees, we apply the Maxent model what based on the presence information of the species. We also selected 10 environmental variables expected to influence honeybees habitat environment through literature survey. As a result of constructing the species distribution model using the Maxent model, 71.7% of the training data were shown on the AUC(Area Under Cover) basis, and it was be confirmed with an area of 20.73% in the whole target area, based on the 50% probability of presence of honeybees. It was confirmed that the contribution of the variable has influence on land covering, distance from the forest, altitude, aspect. Based on this, the possibility of honeybee's habitat characteristics were confirmed to be higher in wetland environment, in agricultural land, close to forest and lower elevation, southeast and west. The prediction of these habitat environments has significance as a lead research that presents the habitat of honeybees with high conservation value of ecosystems in terms of urban space, and it will be useful for future urban park planning and conservation area selection.