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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2017.50.7.475

Effect and uncertainty analysis according to input components and their applicable probability distributions of the Modified Surface Water Supply Index  

Jang, Suk Hwan (Department of Civil Engineering, Daejin University)
Lee, Jae-Kyoung (Innovation Center for Engineering Education, Daejin University)
Oh, Ji Hwan (Department of Civil Engineering, Daejin University)
Jo, Joon Won (Department of Civil Engineering, Daejin University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.50, no.7, 2017 , pp. 475-488 More about this Journal
Abstract
To simulate accurate drought, a drought index is needed to reflect the hydrometeorological phenomenon. Several studies have been conducted in Korea using the Modified Surface Water Supply Index (MSWSI) to simulate hydrological drought. This study analyzed the limitations of MSWSI and quantified the uncertainties of MSWSI. The influence of hydrometeorological components selected as the MSWSI components was analyzed. Although the previous MSWSI dealt with only one observation for each input component such as streamflow, ground water level, precipitation, and dam inflow, this study included dam storage level and dam release as suitable characteristics of the sub-basins, and used the areal-average precipitation obtained from several observations. From the MSWSI simulations of 2001 and 2006 drought events, MSWSI of this study successfully simulated drought because MSWSI of this study followed the trend of observing the hydrometeorological data and then the accuracy of the drought simulation results was affected by the selection of the input component on the MSWSI. The influence of the selection of the probability distributions to input components on the MSWSI was analyzed, including various criteria: the Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions for precipitation data; normal and Gumbel distributions for streamflow data; 2-parameter log-normal and Gumbel distributions for dam inflow, storage level, and release discharge data; and 3-parameter log-normal distribution for groundwater. Then, the maximum 36 MSWSIs were calculated for each sub-basin, and the ranges of MSWSI differed significantly according to the selection of probability distributions. Therefore, it was confirmed that the MSWSI results may differ depending on the probability distribution. The uncertainty occurred due to the selection of MSWSI input components and the probability distributions were quantified using the maximum entropy. The uncertainty thus increased as the number of input components increased and the uncertainty of MSWSI also increased with the application of probability distributions of input components during the flood season.
Keywords
MSWSI; Uncertainty quantification; Maximum entropy;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 7  (Citation Analysis)
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