한국기후변화학회지 (Journal of Climate Change Research)

  • 제6권3호
  • /
  • Pages.243-248
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  • 2015
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  • 2093-5919(pISSN)
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  • 2586-2782(eISSN)
한국기후변화학회 (The Korean Society of Climate Change Research)
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기후변화 시나리오에 의한 외래식물 실망초(Conyza bonariensis)의 서식지 분포 예측

Predicting the Suitable Habitat of Invasive Alien Plant Conyza bonariensis based on Climate Change Scenarios

  • 이용호 (고려대학교 야생자원식물종자은행) ;
  • 오영주 ((주)미래환경생태연구소) ;
  • 홍선희 (고려대학교 야생자원식물종자은행) ;
  • 나채선 (고려대학교 야생자원식물종자은행) ;
  • 나영은 (농촌진흥청 연구운영과) ;
  • 김창석 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원) ;
  • 손수인 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원)
  • Lee, Yong-Ho (Seed Bank of Wild Resource Plants, Korea University) ;
  • Oh, Young-Ju (Institute for Future Environmental Ecology Co., Ltd) ;
  • Hong, Sun-Hea (Seed Bank of Wild Resource Plants, Korea University) ;
  • Na, Chea-Sun (Seed Bank of Wild Resource Plants, Korea University) ;
  • Na, Young-Eun (Division of Research Management, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Kim, Chang-Suk (National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA) ;
  • Sohn, Soo-In (National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA)
  • 투고 : 2015.09.02
  • 심사 : 2015.09.21
  • 발행 : 2015.09.29
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초록

This study was conducted to predict the changes of potential distribution for invasive alien plant, Conyza bonariensis in Korea. C. bonariensis was found in southern Korea (Jeju, south coast, southwest coast). The habitats of C. bonariensis were roadside, bare ground, farm area, and pasture, where the interference by human was severe. Due to the seed characteristics of Compositae, C. bonariensis take long scattering distance and it will easily spread by movement of wind, vehicles and people. C. canadensis in same Conyza genus has already spread on a national scale and it is difficult to manage. We used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) for analyzing the environmental influences on C. bonariensis distribution and projecting on two different RCP scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results of our study indicated annual mean temperature, elevation and temperature seasonality had higher contribution for C. bonariensis potential distribution. Area under curve (AUC) values of the model was 0.9. Under future climate scenario, the constructed model predicted that potential distribution of C. bonariensis will be increased by 338% on RCP 4.5 and 769% on RCP 8.5 in 2100s.

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과제정보

연구 과제 주관 기관 : 농촌진흥청