• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.77-91
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• 2002

This paper considers a functional regression model with truncated errors in explanatory variables. We show that the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators produce bias in regression parameter estimates under misspecified models with ignored errors in the explanatory variable measurements, and then propose methods for analyzing the functional model. Fully parametric frequentist approaches for analyzing the model are intractable and thus Bayesian methods are pursued using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based approach. Necessary theories involved in modeling and computation are provided. Finally, a simulation study is given to illustrate and examine the proposed methods.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.36-41
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• 2005

페트리 네트(Petri Nets)는 이산 사건 시스템을 모델링할 수 있는 그래픽하고, 수학적인 도구이다. 본 연구는 유연제조 시스템을 확률적인 페트리 네트(Stochastic Petri Nets)중의 하나인 임베디드 마코프 체인(Embeded Markov Chain)에 도입하고, 임베디드 마코프 체인의 방법 중에 하나인 일반화된 확률적 페트리 네트(Generalized Stochastic Perti Nets)에 적용시켰다. 그리고 결과치의 정확성을 알아내기 위하여, 페트리 네트 시뮬레이션과 아레나를 사용하여 실행하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.249-273
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• 1996

This paper reviews and develops several statistical models for extreme values, based on threshold methodology. Extreme values of a time series are modeled in terms of tails which are defined as truncated forms of original variables, and Markov property is imposed on the tails. Tails of the generalized extreme value distribution and a multivariate extreme value distributively, of the tails of the series. These models are then applied to real ozone data series collected in the Chicago area. A major concern is given to detecting any possible trend in the extreme values.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.119-121
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• 2013

최초의 컴퓨터 바이러스인 브레인 바이러스가 만들어진 이후로, 현재까지 컴퓨터 바이러스로 인한 피해는 늘어나고 있다. 이에 따라 컴퓨터 바이러스를 막기 위한 여러 가지 노력이 현재도 진행 중에 있다. 컴퓨터 바이러스로 인한 피해 방지와 예방을 위한 대책을 수립하기 위해서는 컴퓨터 바이러스의 발생 빈도수를 예측 하는 것이 필요하다. 본 논문은 다양한 예측 연구에 활용되고 있는 마코프 체인을 적용하였다. 본 논문은 마코프 체인을 적용하여 컴퓨터 바이러스 빈도수를 예측하는 모델링을 제안한다.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.5 no.11
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• pp.2954-2972
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• 1998

It is expected that the transport of compressed video will become a significant part of total network traffic because of the widespread introduction of multimedial services such as VOD(video on demand). Accordingly, VBR(variable bit-rate) encoded video will be widely used, due to its advantages in statistical multiplexing gain and consistent vido quality. Since the transport of video traffic requires larger bandwidth than that of voice and data, the characterization of video source and traffic modeling is very important for the design of proper resource allocation scheme in ATM networks. Suitable statistical source models are also required to analyze performance metrics such as packet loss, delay and jitter. In this paper, we analyzed and described on the characterization and traffic modeling of MPEG video sources. The models are broadly classified into two categories; i.e., statistical models and deterministic models. In statistical models, the models are categorized into five groups: AR(autoregressive), Markov, composite Marko and AR, TES, and selfsimilar models. In deterministic models, the models are categorized into $({\sigma},\;{\rho}$, parameterized model, D-BIND, and Empirical Envelopes models. Each model was analyzed for its characteristics along with corresponding advantages and shortcomings, and we made comparisons on the complexity of each model.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.225-233
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• 2011

Stock market prices, economic indices, trends and changes of social phenomena, etc. are categorized as time series data. Research on time series data has been prevalent for a while as it could not only lead to valuable representation of data but also provide future trends as well as changes in direction. We take a conventional model based approach, known as Markov chain modeling for the prediction on stock market prices. To improve prediction accuracy, we apply Markov modeling over carefully selected intervals of training data to fit the trend under consideration to the model. Another method we take is to apply clustering to data and build models of the resultant clusters. We confirmed that clustered models are better off in predicting, however, with the loss of prediction rate.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.1522-1545
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• 2012

Call admission control (CAC) plays an important role in mobile cellular network to guarantee the quality of service (QoS). In this paper, a dynamic hybrid CAC scheme with integrated cutoff priority and handoff queue for mobile cellular network is proposed and some performance metrics are derived. The unique characteristic of the proposed CAC scheme is that it can support any number of service types and that the cutoff thresholds for handoff calls are dynamically adjusted according to the number of service types and service priority index. Moreover, timeouts of handoff calls in queues are also considered in our scheme. By modeling the proposed CAC scheme with a one-dimensional Markov chain (1DMC), some performance metrics are derived, which include new call blocking probability ($P_{nb}$), forced termination probability (PF), average queue length, average waiting time in queue, offered traffic utilization, wireless channel utilization and system performance which is defined as the ratio of channel utilization to Grade of Service (GoS) cost function. In order to validate the correctness of the derived analytical performance metrics, simulation is performed. It is shown that simulation results match closely with the derived analytic results in terms of $P_{nb}$ and PF. And then, to show the advantage of 1DMC modeling for the performance analysis of our proposed CAC scheme, the computing complexity of multi-dimensional Markov chain (MDMC) modeling in performance analysis is analyzed in detail. It is indicated that state-space cardinality, which reflects the computing complexity of MDMC, increases exponentially with the number of service types and total channels in a cell. However, the state-space cardinality of our 1DMC model for performance analysis is unrelated to the number of service types and is determined by total number of channels and queue capacity of the highest priority service in a cell. At last, the performance comparison between our CAC scheme and Mahmoud ASH's scheme is carried out. The results show that our CAC scheme performs well to some extend.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.147-156
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• 2013

Each field of modern society, industrialization and the development of science and technology are rapidly changing. However, as a side effect of rapid social change has caused various problems. Crime of the side effects of rapid social change is a big problem. In this paper, a model for predicting crime and Markov chains applied to the crime, predictive modeling is proposed. Markov chain modeling of the existing one with the overall status of the case determined the probability of predicting the future, but this paper predict the events to increase the probability of occurrence probability of the prediction and the recent state of the entire state was divided by the probability of the prediction. And the whole state and the probability of the prediction and the recent state by applying the average of the prediction probability and the probability of the prediction model were implemented. Data was applied to the incidence of crime. As a result, the entire state applies only when the probability of the prediction than the entire state and the last state is calculated by dividing the probability value. And that means when applied to predict the probability, close to the crime was concluded that prediction.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.34-42
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• 1998

An adaptive state and input estimator for the tracking of a target with unknown randomly switching input is developed. In modeling the unknown inputs, it is assumed that the input sequence is governed by semi-Markov process. By incorporating the semi-Markov probability concepts into the Bayesian estimation theory, an effective adaptive state and input estimator which consists of parallel Kalman-type filters is obtained. Computer simulation results reveal that the proposed adaptive estimator have improved tracking performance in spite of the unknown randomly switching input.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.81-87
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• 2004

This paper deals with a new approach to tolerance optimization problems. Optimal tolerance allotment problems can be formulated as stochastic optimization problems. Most schemes to solve the stochastic optimization problems have been found to exhibit difficulties in multivariate integration of the probability density function. As a typical example of stochastic optimization the optimal tolerance allotment problem has the same difficulties. In this stochastic model, manufacturing system is represented by Gauss-Markov stochastic process and the manufacturing unit availability is characterized for realistic optimization modeling. The new algorithm performed robustly for a large deviation approximation. A significant reduction in computation time was observed compared to the results obtained in previous studies.