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http://dx.doi.org/10.9708/jksci.2013.18.5.147

A Study of the Probability of Prediction to Crime according to Time Status Change  

Park, Koo-Rack (Dept. of Computer Science & Engineering, Kongju national University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information / v.18, no.5, 2013 , pp. 147-156 More about this Journal
Abstract
Each field of modern society, industrialization and the development of science and technology are rapidly changing. However, as a side effect of rapid social change has caused various problems. Crime of the side effects of rapid social change is a big problem. In this paper, a model for predicting crime and Markov chains applied to the crime, predictive modeling is proposed. Markov chain modeling of the existing one with the overall status of the case determined the probability of predicting the future, but this paper predict the events to increase the probability of occurrence probability of the prediction and the recent state of the entire state was divided by the probability of the prediction. And the whole state and the probability of the prediction and the recent state by applying the average of the prediction probability and the probability of the prediction model were implemented. Data was applied to the incidence of crime. As a result, the entire state applies only when the probability of the prediction than the entire state and the last state is calculated by dividing the probability value. And that means when applied to predict the probability, close to the crime was concluded that prediction.
Keywords
Predictive modeling; Markov chains; Simulation; Crime statistics;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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