• Title/Summary/Keyword: Loss Aversion

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An Empirical Study on the Effect of Respondent Bias in PSM : Case in Apartment Pricing (PSM 가격평가 주체에 따른 아파트 가격결정 효용성 실증연구)

  • Cho, Han-Jin;Kim, Jong-Lim
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2016
  • PSM is widely used pricing tool in field by the reason of data collection convenience and analytical intuitiveness. However, In high involvement environment, strategic respondent bias influence in reducing the price. By using 3 empirical cases of LH apartment for sale, We found that latent consumers' recognition of the range of acceptable and the range of optimal price are lower than real estate agent representative respondents'. This phenomenon is considered loss aversion effect of prospect theory to reduce loss by reducing price, and more influenced in high involvement situation than latent consumer respondents'. Also we found PSM result using real estate representative data is more useful in real market than latent consumers data distorted by loss aversion effects. The meaning of this study is finding some limitation in PSM using consumer data generally used. In further study, development of PSM measurement tool to minimize the effect of strategic bias are need to be studied. Also some new approaches in reinterpretation of the range of acceptable price and the range of optimal price are need to be followed.

Modeling the Effect of Consideration Set-Based Reference Price: Empirical Bayes & Latent Class Approach (고려상품군을 반영한 준거가격효과의 모형화: Empirical Bayes & Latent Class Approach)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2006
  • A couple of previous studies have warned against the use of homogeneous choice models in assessing the effect of reference price since unaccounted for response heterogeneity may result in spurious reference price effects(Chang, Siddarth and Weinberg 1999; Bell and Lattin 2000). According to Meyer and Kahn(1991), not accounting for consideration set heterogeneity may also bias the effect parameters in the choice model. Therefore, failure to account for these two sources of bias, in fact, have cast doubt on the empirical support for reference price effects in general. In view of aforementioned potential sources of bias, the author investigates the robustness of loss aversion effect in the reference-dependent model after accounting for heterogeneity in response as well as consideration set. The proposed model defines individual household's consideration set based on the posterior distribution of preference obtained from the Empirical Bayes approach. In addition, the same posterior distribution is used to form household-specific reference prices. Response heterogeneity correction is carried out via the Latent Class approach. The proposed model outperforms the Reference-Dependent model that includes the reference price measure most often employed in the previous studies. This implies that as a way of simplifying decision task, consumers restrict their consideration set to a subset of available brands not only in making a brand choice but also in forming reference prices.

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Prospect Theory based NPC Decision Making Model on Dynamic Terrain Analysis (동적 지형분석에서의 전망이론 기반 NPC 의사결정 모델)

  • Lee, Dong Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we propose a NPC decision making model based on Prospect Theory which tries to model real-life choice, rather than optimal decision. For this purpose, we analyse the problems of reference point setting, diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion which are known as limitations of the utility theory and then apply these characteristics into the decision making in game. Dynamic Terrain Analysis is utilized to evaluate the proposed model and experimental result shows the method have effects on inducing diverse personality and emergent behavior on NPC.

Identification of Prevailing Risk Attitudes in Various Risk Situations (다양한 위험상황에서의 지배적 위험태도의 파악)

  • Kang, Tae-Geon;Cho, Sung-Ku
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.437-447
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    • 1999
  • Previous researches on risk attitudes or on the typical utility functions have mostly focused on how the risk attitude of decision maker varies when changes are made in one or two lottery reference points such as consequence domain and magnitude of probability under assumed risk situations represented by simple lotteries. It is, however, very difficult to forecast dominant risk attitudes under risk situations which exhibit a complex combination of many reference points. In this study, twelve risk situations which a decision maker may confront in real decision-making situations were formulated by combining in various ways three reference points, that is, magnitude of probability, consequence domain, and magnitude of gain or loss. Then through a questionnaire dominant risk attitudes under every assumed risk situation were investigated, and the general shape of utility function implied by the experimental results were derived. Results of the present study show that none of the three reference points have dominant effect over the others due to complicated interaction between them, and given the twelve risk situations the observed risk attitude widely varies from strong risk taking to strong risk aversion.

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The Significance and Influence of an Addition on the Abalone Transaction (전복의 거래에 있어 덤의 의미와 영향)

  • Lee, Nam-Su;Park, Eun-Young
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.79-102
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    • 2010
  • Abalone is a primary commodity that is almost traded as live fishes. So the application of 'addition' is common in local transaction of abalone. Nevertheless, an excessive application of addition leads to some social problems. The abalone industry is one of the most rapidly growing industry in fisheries. This growth is caused by propagation of sea cage and mechanization of feeding. As a result, the abalone distributers are increased. However, the distributers have great bargaining power, so they sometimes claim excessive addition rates to aquacultural abalone producers. Difference in fitted level of the addition rates between distributers and producers cause some problems as an aversion to shipping of abalone. Also, the words about addition have not clear definition yet. So many related terminologies, for example, addition, deviation, and loss, those have different meaning are in used. And unfortunately many industry insiders use the words, 'addition', mixed with other related terminologies on transaction. The main objective of this study is to clearly define addition's meaning on the abalone transaction and to analyze the correlations between the addition and the abalone prices, outputs, and exports. Analysis results show addition negatively affects abalone prices and outputs. Furthermore, addition contributes to abalone exports negatively contrary to expectation. Such results can provide information that 'stabilization of supply and price of abalone' is realistically better method than 'increasing of additional rates' to expand abalone exports. Negative correlations between variables tell that a dictionary definition of addition, a free as seller's benevolence, is divorced from reality of abalone industry. Therefore "Loss", that means preservation in unintentional loss of abalone objects, is more suitable than "Addition" on abalone transaction.

Prospect Theory and Risk Preferences of Real Estate Development Companies (부동산 개발 및 공급 기업의 손익과 경영진의 위험 선호도)

  • Kim, Byungil;Kim, Won Tae;Chung, Do-Bum
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2022
  • Companies make decisions with risks such as choosing an investment plan in order to pursue profits. This study explained the decision making of the management of construction companies in South Korea using the tendency to avoid losses in the Prospect Theory. To this end, 20-year financial data of 2,881 companies engaged in real estate development, which have to bear the greatest risk among the construction industry, were collected. The collected companies were roughly classified based on the reference point, and the causal relationship between average return on equity and risk preference by group was empirically analyzed through regression analysis. As a result, it was confirmed that if the average return on equity of a company decreases for the group above the reference point, it tends to select an investment plan with low uncertainty in order not to lose additional money. In addition, it was confirmed that if the average return on equity of a company decreases for the group below the reference point, it tends to select an investment plan with high uncertainty to move to the profit area. This result is exactly consistent with the loss aversion tendency of the Prospect Theory.

An Empirical Study on the Cognitive Biases of The Korea Real Estate Market Through the Testing of Prospect Theory (전망이론 검증을 통한 부동산투자자들의 인지적 편의에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Seong Hoon;Park, Keun Woo
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we examine whether there are prospect theory investment patterns for individual investors in the real estate market. We use the maximum potential profit rate and the maximum potential loss rate of individual investors as a research method and additionally analyze it using the Jeong and Park(2015) model. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the investment pattern according to the prospect theory and disposition effect for individual investors. And we find the difference between zoning areas. This difference in investment behavior is believed to be due to the purpose of the real estate and the existence of rent fee, which creates a difference in investment behavior depending on the purpose. The limitations of this study are the analysis measurement of potential profit and potential loss using the land price index like the study of jeong and Park(2015). This implies that a new property price index needs to be developed or a benchmark for real estate assets is needed for deeper study of real estate investment sentiment.

An Experimental Study on the Prospect Theory (전망이론에 관한 실험연구)

  • Guahk, Seyoung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2017
  • This paper performed an experimental study to test the validity of the prospect theory proposed by Tversky and Kahneman as an alternative to the expected utility theory. 115 college students attended the hypothetical games to choose one of two lotteries, one is safe option while the other one is risky. The risky options were set up to have low, medium or high probability of payoffs or losses. The amount of payoffs and losses of the lotteries was either large or small. Maximum likelihood estimation of the hypothetical games have shown that in case of high probability of positive payoffs the respondents were risk averse and when the probability of positive payoffs were small the respondents were risk loving. when the possibility of loss is high they were risk loving, while the probability is of loss is low the respondents were found to be risk averse. When the probability of risky options were medium the results were significant statistically in case of only losses. The amount of positive payoff or losses does not affect the results. Overall the results of this experiments support the prospect theory more than those of Laury & Holts (2008).

Asymmetric Effect of Social Sentimental on an Individual Stock Price Return (소셜 감성이 개별 기업 주식수익률에 미치는 비대칭적 영향 분석)

  • Sei-Wan Kim;Jee-Won Park;Young-Min Kim;Hee Kyung Ham
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.59-74
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    • 2020
  • This paper investigates the asymmetric effect of social sentimental on an individual stock price return. For this purpose, four companies such as POSCO, Korean Electricity, AMORE PACIFIC, KIA Motors are chosen from KOSPI listed companies in terms of dataperspective. The main estimation results are as follows: the positive opinions affect only the stock prices return of three companies while the negative opinions affect all of the companies. It shows that positive or negative texts give asymmetric effect on stock price return and the effect of negative opinions is bigger than that of positive opinions. The results imply that investors are more sensitive to the negatives since they have the tendency of loss aversion. Also, it indicates that subjective opinion on SNS can be used as the proxy for the investment sentiment.

The Effect of Common Features on Consumer Preference for a No-Choice Option: The Moderating Role of Regulatory Focus (재몰유선택적정황하공동특성대우고객희호적영향(在没有选择的情况下共同特性对于顾客喜好的影响): 조절초점적조절작용(调节焦点的调节作用))

  • Park, Jong-Chul;Kim, Kyung-Jin
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2010
  • This study researches the effects of common features on a no-choice option with respect to regulatory focus theory. The primary interest is in three factors and their interrelationship: common features, no-choice option, and regulatory focus. Prior studies have compiled vast body of research in these areas. First, the "common features effect" has been observed bymany noted marketing researchers. Tversky (1972) proposed the seminal theory, the EBA model: elimination by aspect. According to this theory, consumers are prone to focus only on unique features during comparison processing, thereby dismissing any common features as redundant information. Recently, however, more provocative ideas have attacked the EBA model by asserting that common features really do affect consumer judgment. Chernev (1997) first reported that adding common features mitigates the choice gap because of the increasing perception of similarity among alternatives. Later, however, Chernev (2001) published a critically developed study against his prior perspective with the proposition that common features may be a cognitive load to consumers, and thus consumers are possible that they are prone to prefer the heuristic processing to the systematic processing. This tends to bring one question to the forefront: Do "common features" affect consumer choice? If so, what are the concrete effects? This study tries to answer the question with respect to the "no-choice" option and regulatory focus. Second, some researchers hold that the no-choice option is another best alternative of consumers, who are likely to avoid having to choose in the context of knotty trade-off settings or mental conflicts. Hope for the future also may increase the no-choice option in the context of optimism or the expectancy of a more satisfactory alternative appearing later. Other issues reported in this domain are time pressure, consumer confidence, and alternative numbers (Dhar and Nowlis 1999; Lin and Wu 2005; Zakay and Tsal 1993). This study casts the no-choice option in yet another perspective: the interactive effects between common features and regulatory focus. Third, "regulatory focus theory" is a very popular theme in recent marketing research. It suggests that consumers have two focal goals facing each other: promotion vs. prevention. A promotion focus deals with the concepts of hope, inspiration, achievement, or gain, whereas prevention focus involves duty, responsibility, safety, or loss-aversion. Thus, while consumers with a promotion focus tend to take risks for gain, the same does not hold true for a prevention focus. Regulatory focus theory predicts consumers' emotions, creativity, attitudes, memory, performance, and judgment, as documented in a vast field of marketing and psychology articles. The perspective of the current study in exploring consumer choice and common features is a somewhat creative viewpoint in the area of regulatory focus. These reviews inspire this study of the interaction possibility between regulatory focus and common features with a no-choice option. Specifically, adding common features rather than omitting them may increase the no-choice option ratio in the choice setting only to prevention-focused consumers, but vice versa to promotion-focused consumers. The reasoning is that when prevention-focused consumers come in contact with common features, they may perceive higher similarity among the alternatives. This conflict among similar options would increase the no-choice ratio. Promotion-focused consumers, however, are possible that they perceive common features as a cue of confirmation bias. And thus their confirmation processing would make their prior preference more robust, then the no-choice ratio may shrink. This logic is verified in two experiments. The first is a $2{\times}2$ between-subject design (whether common features or not X regulatory focus) using a digital cameras as the relevant stimulus-a product very familiar to young subjects. Specifically, the regulatory focus variable is median split through a measure of eleven items. Common features included zoom, weight, memory, and battery, whereas the other two attributes (pixel and price) were unique features. Results supported our hypothesis that adding common features enhanced the no-choice ratio only to prevention-focus consumers, not to those with a promotion focus. These results confirm our hypothesis - the interactive effects between a regulatory focus and the common features. Prior research had suggested that including common features had a effect on consumer choice, but this study shows that common features affect choice by consumer segmentation. The second experiment was used to replicate the results of the first experiment. This experimental study is equal to the prior except only two - priming manipulation and another stimulus. For the promotion focus condition, subjects had to write an essay using words such as profit, inspiration, pleasure, achievement, development, hedonic, change, pursuit, etc. For prevention, however, they had to use the words persistence, safety, protection, aversion, loss, responsibility, stability etc. The room for rent had common features (sunshine, facility, ventilation) and unique features (distance time and building state). These attributes implied various levels and valence for replication of the prior experiment. Our hypothesis was supported repeatedly in the results, and the interaction effects were significant between regulatory focus and common features. Thus, these studies showed the dual effects of common features on consumer choice for a no-choice option. Adding common features may enhance or mitigate no-choice, contradictory as it may sound. Under a prevention focus, adding common features is likely to enhance the no-choice ratio because of increasing mental conflict; under the promotion focus, it is prone to shrink the ratio perhaps because of a "confirmation bias." The research has practical and theoretical implications for marketers, who may need to consider common features carefully in a practical display context according to consumer segmentation (i.e., promotion vs. prevention focus.) Theoretically, the results suggest some meaningful moderator variable between common features and no-choice in that the effect on no-choice option is partly dependent on a regulatory focus. This variable corresponds not only to a chronic perspective but also a situational perspective in our hypothesis domain. Finally, in light of some shortcomings in the research, such as overlooked attribute importance, low ratio of no-choice, or the external validity issue, we hope it influences future studies to explore the little-known world of the "no-choice option."