• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.1
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• pp.75-89
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• 2012

This study attempted to analyze statistical characteristics of historical drought of Korea through trend, periodicity and drought spell analysis by using the drought indices. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) were calculated using weather data of 59 weather stations under Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). As a result of analysis, SP13 and SP16 showed trend of drier spring, drier winter and wetter summer in all basin of Korea. However, SPI12 and PDSI showed different trends with shorter duration drought indices. In case of wavelet transform analysis for drought periodicities, in a band of 1~2 years or below 6 years showed significant spectrum. SP13 showed strongest power spectrum near the band of 1~2 year variance, and SPI12 and PDSI showed 6 years periodicities. The results from drought spell showed that Nakdong River Basin, Geum River Basin and Youngsan River Basin were appeared as severe drought vulnerable area of Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.8
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• pp.709-720
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• 2010

This paper describes the modeling of climate change impact on drought using a conceptual soil moisture model and presents the results of the modeling approach. The future climate series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by CCCma CGCM3-T63 with A2 green house emission scenario, using a daily scaling method that considers changes in the future monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily precipitation distribution. The majority of the modeling results indicate that there will be more frequent drought in Korea in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.667-681
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of a Land Surface Model (LSM) for drought analysis in Korea. For evaluating the applicability of the model, the model was calibrated on several upper dam site watersheds and the hydrological components (runoff and soil moisture) were simulated over the whole South Korea at grid basis. After converting daily series of runoff and soil moisture data to accumulated time series (3, 6, 12 months), drought indices such as SRI and SSI are calculated through frequency analysis and standardization of accumulated probability. For evaluating the drought indices, past drought events are investigated and drought indices including SPI and PDSI are used for comparative analysis. Temporal and spatial analysis of the drought indices in addition to hydrologic component analysis are performed to evaluate the reproducibility of drought severity as well as relieving of drought. It can be concluded that the proposed indices obtained from the LSM model show good performance to reflect the historical drought events for both spatially and temporally. From this point of view, the LSM can be useful for drought management. It leads to the conclusion that these indices are applicable to domestic drought and water management.

• Water for future
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.71-82
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• 1994

A statistical characteristics, relations of calendar and water year, and frequencies of precipitaion which are necessary for water resources planning were analyzed with long historical data(1905-1991 years). And the analysis of precipitation of the drought periods in 1967-1968 years was carried out. The study basins are the five major rivers in Korea. As a results of this study, annual precipitation shows an increasing trend but its variation has no statistical significance. The rellations of calendar and water year precipitation is presented, it shows that there are little difference of the total precipitation between them. The annual minimum series of total precipitation for the periods of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months by water year are constructed, and frequency precipitation for each periods using 2-parameter lognormal distribution is presented. The analysis of the precipitation in 1967-1968 years shows in a natural river basins that it would be a moderate drought, if dry seasons(Oct-May) or wet seasons(Jun-Sep) has 75 percents of historical mean precipitation of the same periods. And if it has less than 60 percents of historical mean precipitation, it would be a severe drought.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.335-343
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• 2007

Drought characteristics need to be preceded before establishing a drought mitigation plan. In this study, using a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a hydrologic drought was defined as an event during which the SPIs are continuously below a certain truncation level. Then, a methodology of drought frequency analysis was performed to quantitatively characterize droughts considering drought duration and severity simultaneously. The theory of runs was used to model drought recurrence and to determine drought properties like duration and severity. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, more than hundred years of precipitation data (1770 ${\sim}$ 1907) collected in Chosun Kingdom Age using an old Korean rain gage called Chukwooki can provide valuable information about past events. It is shown that a bivariate gamma distribution well represented the joint probabilistic properties of Korean drought duration and severity. The overall results of this study show that the proposed bivariate drought frequency analysis overcomes the drawbacks of the conventional univariate frequency analysis by providing a consistent representation of the drought recurrent property.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.271-281
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• 2015

The objectives of this study are to develop a hydrological drought outlook system using GloSea5 (Global Seasonal forecasting system 5) which has recently been used by KMA (Korea Meteorological Association) and to evaluate the forecasting capability. For drought analysis, the bilinear interpolation method was applied to spatially downscale the low-resolution outputs of GloSea5 and PR (Predicted Runoff) was produced for different lead times (i.e., 1-, 2-, 3-month) running LSM (Land Surface Model). The behavior of PR anomaly was similar to that of HR (Historical Runoff) and the estimated values were negative up to lead times of 1- and 2-month. For the evaluation of drought outlook, SRI (Standardized Runoff Index) was selected and PR_SRI estimated using PR. ROC score was 0.83, 0.71, 0.60 for 1-, 2- and 3-month lead times, respectively. It also showed the hit rate is high and false alarm rate is low as shorter lead time. The temporal Correlation Coefficient (CC) was 0.82, 0.60, 0.31 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 0.52, 0.86, 1.20 for 1-, 2-, 3-month lead time, respectively. The accuracy of PR_SRI was high up to 1- and 2-month lead time on local regions except the Gyeonggi and Gangwon province. It can be concluded that GloSea5 has high applicability for hydrological drought outlook.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.497-509
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• 2009

Records on natural hazards such as droughts, floods, smallpox and attacks of grasshoppers are classified and analyzed during the Ancient Times(BC 57$\sim$AD 935) based on the Historical Records of the Three Kingdoms Age(Samguksaki main record), and influences on human activities and relationships of each natural hazard are studied. The strongest influences on the agricultural productivity were the drought and the influences of floods were weak. The most floods were not destructive hazards because the cultivated lands were distributed in the valley plains and the towns and villages were constructed in the area free from the floods during the Ancient Times. The attacks of grasshoppers have the high frequencies with the droughts. The smallpox of the Ancient Times has no relationships with the dearth, floods and droughts. This means that the waterborne infections happened periodically and after the unification, the infectious diseases happened continuously due to the urbanization leading the concentration of population on the capital. Two cycles of droughts are recognized, and they happened with the time intervals of approximately 500 years during approximately 1000 years in Shilla dynasty.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.275-282
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• 2016

The objective of this study is to propose a new method to determine the drought event and the design drought severity. In order to define a drought event from precipitation data, theory of run was applied with the cumulative rainfall deficit. When we have a large amount of rainfall over the threshold level, in this study, we compare with the previous cumulative rainfall deficit to determine whether the drought is relieved or not. The recurrence characteristics of the drought severity on the specific duration was analyzed by the conditional bivariate copula function and confidence intervals were estimated to quantify uncertainties. The methodology was applied to Seoul station with the historical dataset (1909~2015). It was observed that the past droughts considered as extreme hydrological events had from 10 to 50 years of return period. On the other hand, the current on-going drought event started from 2013 showed the significantly higher return period. It is expected that the result of this study may be utilized as the reliable criteria based on the concept of return period for the drought contingency plan.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.10
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• pp.835-849
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• 2016

Accurate drought outlook and drought monitoring have been preceded recently to mitigate drought damages that further deepen. This study improved the limitations of the previous MSWSI (Modified Surface Water Supply Index) used in Korea and carried out probabilistic drought forecasts based on ensemble technique with the improved MSWSI. This study investigated available hydrometeorological components in Geum river basin and supplemented appropriate components (dam water level, dam release discharge) in addition to the four components (streamflow, groundwater, precipitation, dam inflow) usedin the previous MSWSI to each sub-basin. Although normal distribution was fitted in the previous MSWSI, the most suitable probabilistic distributions to each meteorological component were estimated in this study, including Gumbel distribution for precipitation and streamflow data; 2-parameter log-normal distribution for dam inflow, water level, and release discharge data; 3-parameter log-normal distribution for groundwater. To verify the improved MSWSI results using historical precipitation and streamflow, simulated drought situations were used. Results revealed that the improved MSWSI results were closer to actual drought than previous MSWSI results. The probabilistic forecasts based on ensemble technique with improved MSWSI were performed and evaluated in 2006 and 2014. The accuracy of the improved MSWSI was better than the previous MSWSI. Moreover, the drought index of actual drought was included in ranges of drought forecasts using the improved MSWSI.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.12
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• pp.985-999
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• 2019

Over the last decade, droughts have become more severe and frequent in many regions, and several studies have been conducted to explore the recent drought. Copula-based bivariate drought frequency analysis has been widely used to evaluate drought risk in the context of point frequency analysis. However, the relatively significant uncertainties in the parameters are problematic when available data are limited. For this reason, the primary purpose of this study is to develop a regional drought frequency model based on the Copula function. All parameters, including marginal and copula functions in the regional frequency model, were estimated simultaneously. Here, we present a case study of recent drought 2013-2015 over the Han-River watershed where severe drought risk is consistently found to increase. The proposed model provided a reliable way to significantly reduce the uncertainty of parameters with a Bayesian modeling framework. The uncertainty of the joint return period in the regional frequency analysis is nearly three times lower than that of the point frequency analysis. Accordingly, DIC values in the regional frequency analysis model are significantly decreased by 15. The results confirm that the proposed model is not only reliably representing characteristics of historical droughts and dependencies between drought variables, but also providing the efficacy of understanding regional drought characteristics.