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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2019.52.12.985

A development of bivariate regional drought frequency analysis model using copula function  

Kim, Jin-Guk (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Kim, Jin-Young (Water Management Division, ISAN Corporation)
Ban, Woo-Sik (Hangang Regional Head Office Regional Water Resources Management Department, K-water)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.52, no.12, 2019 , pp. 985-999 More about this Journal
Abstract
Over the last decade, droughts have become more severe and frequent in many regions, and several studies have been conducted to explore the recent drought. Copula-based bivariate drought frequency analysis has been widely used to evaluate drought risk in the context of point frequency analysis. However, the relatively significant uncertainties in the parameters are problematic when available data are limited. For this reason, the primary purpose of this study is to develop a regional drought frequency model based on the Copula function. All parameters, including marginal and copula functions in the regional frequency model, were estimated simultaneously. Here, we present a case study of recent drought 2013-2015 over the Han-River watershed where severe drought risk is consistently found to increase. The proposed model provided a reliable way to significantly reduce the uncertainty of parameters with a Bayesian modeling framework. The uncertainty of the joint return period in the regional frequency analysis is nearly three times lower than that of the point frequency analysis. Accordingly, DIC values in the regional frequency analysis model are significantly decreased by 15. The results confirm that the proposed model is not only reliably representing characteristics of historical droughts and dependencies between drought variables, but also providing the efficacy of understanding regional drought characteristics.
Keywords
Copula; Bayesian; Bivariate drought regional frequency analysis; Uncertainty;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 9  (Citation Analysis)
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