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http://dx.doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.2.271

Construction & Evaluation of GloSea5-Based Hydrological Drought Outlook System  

Son, Kyung-Hwan (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong University)
Bae, Deg-Hyo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong University)
Cheong, Hyun-Sook (Korea Meteorological Administration)
Publication Information
Atmosphere / v.25, no.2, 2015 , pp. 271-281 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objectives of this study are to develop a hydrological drought outlook system using GloSea5 (Global Seasonal forecasting system 5) which has recently been used by KMA (Korea Meteorological Association) and to evaluate the forecasting capability. For drought analysis, the bilinear interpolation method was applied to spatially downscale the low-resolution outputs of GloSea5 and PR (Predicted Runoff) was produced for different lead times (i.e., 1-, 2-, 3-month) running LSM (Land Surface Model). The behavior of PR anomaly was similar to that of HR (Historical Runoff) and the estimated values were negative up to lead times of 1- and 2-month. For the evaluation of drought outlook, SRI (Standardized Runoff Index) was selected and PR_SRI estimated using PR. ROC score was 0.83, 0.71, 0.60 for 1-, 2- and 3-month lead times, respectively. It also showed the hit rate is high and false alarm rate is low as shorter lead time. The temporal Correlation Coefficient (CC) was 0.82, 0.60, 0.31 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 0.52, 0.86, 1.20 for 1-, 2-, 3-month lead time, respectively. The accuracy of PR_SRI was high up to 1- and 2-month lead time on local regions except the Gyeonggi and Gangwon province. It can be concluded that GloSea5 has high applicability for hydrological drought outlook.
Keywords
Drought outlook; GloSea5; LSM; predicted runoff; SRI;
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