• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.801-812
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• 1999

Change-point hazard rate models arise for example in applying "burn-in" techniques to screen defective items and in studing times until undesirable side effects occur in clinical trials. Sometimes in screening defectives it might be sensible to model two stages of burn-in. In a clinical trial there might be an initial hazard rate for a side effect which after a period of time changes to an intermediate hazard rate before settling into a long term hazard rate. In this paper we consider the multiple change points hazard rate model. The classical approach's asymptotics can be poor for the small to all moderate sample sizes often encountered in practice. We propose a Bayesian approach avoiding asymptotics to provide more reliable inference conditional only upon the data actually observed. The Bayesian models can be fitted using simulation methods. Model comparison is made using recently developed Bayesian model selection criteria. The above methodology is applied to a generated data and to a generated data and the Lawless(1982) failure times of electrical insulation.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.57-63
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• 2011

In this study, a ground motion response spectrum for the seismic risk assessment of low and intermediate level radioactive waste repositories was developed. For the development of the ground motion response spectrum, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed. Through the performance of a PSHA, a seismic hazard curve which was based on a seismic bed rock was developed. A uniform hazard spectrum was determined by using a developed seismic hazard curve. Artificial seismic motions were developed based on the uniform hazard spectrum. A seismic response analysis was performed on the developed artificial seismic motion. Finally, an evaluation response spectrum for the seismic risk assessment analysis of low and intermediate level radioactive waste repositories was developed.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.10
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• pp.27-38
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• 2010

In every summer season, most of the slope failures and debris flows occurr due to seasonal rain, typhoon, and localized extreme rainfall in Gangwon Province where 83% of the area is of mountain region. To investigate the slope-hazard triggering rainfall characteristics in Gangwon Province, slope hazard data, precipitation records, and forest fire data were collected and the DATABASE was constructed. Analysis results based on the DATABASE showed that many slope hazards occurred when there was little rainfall and the preceding rainfall had more effect on the slope hazard than the rainfall intensity at the day of hazard. It also showed that the burned area by forest fire was highly susceptible to slope hazard with low rainfall intensity, and the slope hazard in burned area showed highest frequency, especially, under the rainfall below 2-year return period.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.323-329
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• 2012

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index to provide good estimations of the intensity, magnitude and spatial extent of droughts. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial pattern of drought by SPI index. In this paper, the patterns of drought hazard in Iran are evaluated according to the data of 40 weather stations during 1967-2009. The influenced zone of each station was specified by the Thiessen method. It was attempted to make a new model of drought hazard using GIS. Three criteria for drought were studied and considered to define areas of vulnerability. Drought hazard criteria used in the present model included: maximum severity of drought in the period, trend of drought, and the maximum number of sequential arid years. Each of the vulnerability indicators were mapped and these as well as a final hazard map were classified into 5 hazard classes of drought: one, slight, moderate, severe and very severe. The final drought vulnerability map was prepared by overlaying three criteria maps in a GIS, and the final hazard classes were defined on the basis of hazard scores, which were determined according to the means of the main indicators. The final vulnerability map shows that severe hazard areas (43% of the country) which are observed in the west and eastern parts of country are much more widespread than areas under other hazard classes. Overall, approximately half of the country was determined to be under severe and very severe hazard classes for drought.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2004.03b
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• pp.600-605
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• 2004

The road construction with horizontal expansion of country using and augmentation of traffic demand is advanced actively and it accompanies hereupon, the above of 70% of the country is formed at the mountain in our country where the hazard cut slope has been created. In this study, It is prepared a effective management countermeasure of cut slope introduced priority investigation decision method against hazard cut slope which is influenced by abnormally rainfall by an unusual change in the weather such as a guerilla rainfall character. In meaning link, It was executed collapse cause by failure character analysis in the cut slope which has failed for the last five years and it is prepared the hazard grade criterion from E to A grade according to collapse cause. It is decided that a maintenance management grade by the hazard grade classification criterion of cut slope. So It is possible to hazard cut slope. It is established failure protection counter countermeasure by effective maintenance management through the hazard grade c1assification criterion and it will be able to dispose to advanced nation level like Hong Kong and Japanese.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.547-555
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• 2003

Fire hazard and risk analysis at Nuclear Power Plants is implemented on the basis of the normal operational configuration. This steady configuration, however, can be changed due to the temporary displacement of equipment, electric cable and irregular movement of workers through the fire compartments when the on-line maintenance is processed during the power operation mode or the scheduled outage mode for the refueling. With the consequence of this configuration change, the fire analysis condition and the evaluation result will be different from those that were analyzed based on the steady configuration. In this context, at this paper, the general items for the reassessment are categorized when the configuration has changed. The contemporary zone models for the detail fire analysis are also illustrated for their application for each classified condition.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.9 no.4 s.35
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• pp.412-418
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• 2006

In this paper we deal with the APARP theory which has been applied for UK railway system and risk assessment method which has been using in the domestic railway system for the safety demonstration. Both techniques are applied to the ATP wayside equipment for interface. Also, fur the applications of each techniques a analysis of the safety activity and a possibility of the application of ALARP theory are evaluated. Finally, we generate requirements of the safety demonstration for the future domestic railway system by way of the analysis of some assumptions and requirement data which can be applied to the risk assessment of ALARP.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.1-6
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• 2005

To improve safety management of railway and cope with the factors to threat technical and social safety, we need to establish railway safety management system based on analysis of hazards and assessment of risk for railway system. So we have to conduct PHA(Preliminary Hazard Analysis) first to understand weak points and factors to possibly threat safety using analysis of related data such as past accident/incident data and safety regulation and classification standards of hazards/causes of railway accidents. Therefore in this research, we led types/dangerous events/causes of risks/factors of risks from hazard log developed based on railway accident classification and hazards of railway accident. PHA model for domestic railway system will be used in risk analysis and risk assessment of railway accident.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.257-266
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• 2014

This study was planned to investigate the effect of the exposure to hazard factors on work environment satisfaction. Existing researches about job satisfaction have focused on the general working conditions, such as working hours, wage, human relationship, job task and so on. Korean Working Conditions Survey was used for this study because that relevant questions were included. The effect of the exposure to hazard factors on work environment satisfaction may be produced by hierarchical regression analysis because of comparison with existing model for work environment satisfaction. The exposure to hazards factors were statistically significant effect on work environment satisfaction after adjusting other confounding variables, such as gender, age, educational level, job security, work hour, work load, work autonomy, social support, etc. This study has some limitation because that KWCS was cross sectional survey. Some researches about the causal effect and its mechanism may be suggested as future study.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.161-169
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• 2005

In this paper, we provide safety requirements and advices to guarantee the safety of an interface in a level crossing system which is an interface between the conventional facilities and the new ATP (Automatic Train Protection) system, as well as we accomplish a safety management for the facilities of a country that has a different standard with already standardized ATP system. The system model has been made based on a safety activity of the international standard, and then a tolerance of a risk by the safety activity through PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) has been analyzed. finally we achieved HIA (Hazard Identification and Analysis) for the assumptions that have been produced from a operating scenario and a functional interface. Thus, the safety requirements for the interface has been provided from the safety plan of HIA, and we showed the safety activity to guarantee the system safety through HIA which was depend on the design.