• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2008.02a
• /
• pp.637-640
• /
• 2008

Flood control and river improvement works are carried out every year for the defense of the flood disaster, it is impossible to avoid the damage when there is a flood exceeding the capacity of hydraulic structures. Therefore, nonstructural counter plans such as the establishment of flood hazard maps, the flood warning systems are essential with structural counter plans. In this study, analysis of the internal inundation effect using rainfall runoff model such as PC-SWMM was applied to Woo Ee experimental stream basin. Also, the design frequency analysis for effects of the external inundation was accomplished by main parameter estimation for conclusive hydraulic routing using HEC-RAS model. Finally, inundated areas for flood hazard map were estimated at Woo Ee downstream basin according to flood frequency using HEC-GeoRAS model linked by Arc View GIS.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.1-26
• /
• 2001

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a proportional reversed hazard rate model, in contrast to the celebrated proportional hazard model, and study some of its structural properties. Some criteria of ageing are presented and the inheritance of the ageing notions (of the base line distribution) by the proposed model are studied. Two important data sets are analyzed: one uncensored and the other having some censored observations. In both cases, the confidence bands for the failure rate and survival function are investigated. In one case the failure rate is bathtub shaped and in the other it is upside bath tub shaped and thus the failure rates are non-monotonic even though the baseline failure rate is monotonic. In addition, the estimates of the turning points of the failure rates are provided.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.11 no.3
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2011

In this study, a wind hazard map over Korea peninsula based on geographical information is developed, which consists of the surface roughness model, the topographical effect model and the homogeneous wind model. The surface roughness model is assessed to evaluate the effect of the surface roughness on the wind field near ground. The topographical effect model is assessed to quantify the effect of the speed-up caused by topology, which is calculated by adopting the topographical effect factor in Korea building code (2005). The homogeneous wind map is created either by a frequency analysis method for meteorological data or a typhoon simulation. The results show that the wind hazard map can be applied to the determination of insurance premium as well as the assessment of loss and damage.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.38 no.5
• /
• pp.355-366
• /
• 2024

Severe natural multi-hazard events can cause damage to infrastructure and economic losses of billions of dollars. The challenges of modeling these losses include dependency between hazards, cause and sequence of loss, and lack of available data. This paper presents and explores multi-hazard loss modeling in the context of the combined wind and rain vulnerability of mid/high-rise buildings during hurricane events. A component-based probabilistic vulnerability model provides the framework to test and contrast two different approaches to treat the multi-hazards: In one, the wind and rain hazard models are both decoupled from the vulnerability model. In the other, only the wind hazard is decoupled, while the rain hazard model is embedded into the vulnerability model. The paper presents the mathematical and conceptual development of each approach, example outputs from each for the same scenario, and a discussion of weaknesses and strengths of each approach.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.104-113
• /
• 2018

Purpose: This paper proposes the non-periodic preventive maintenance policy based on the level of cumulative hazard intensity. We aim to construct a cost-effectiveness on the proposed model with relaxing the constraint on reliability. Methods: We use the level of cumulative hazard intensity as a condition variable, instead of reliability. Such a level of cumulative hazard intensity can derive the reliability which decreases as the frequency of preventive maintenance action increases. We also model the imperfect preventive maintenance action using the proportional age setback model. Conclusion: We provide a numerical example to illustrate the proposed model. We also analyze how the parameters of our model affect the optimal preventive maintenance policy. The results show that as long as high reliability is guaranteed, the inefficient preventive maintenance action is performed reducing the system operation time. Moreover, the optimal value of the proposed model is sensitive to changes in preventive maintenance cost and replacement cost.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.36 no.1
• /
• pp.49-56
• /
• 2013

The entire land of Southern Iran faces problems arising out of various types of land degradation of which vegetation degradation forms one of the major types. The present work introduces a model developed for assessing the current status of hazard of vegetation degradation using Geographic Information System (GIS). This kind of assessment differs from those assessments based on vulnerability or potential hazard assessments. The Sadra watershed which covers the upper reaches of Marharlu basin, Fars Province, has been chosen for a hazard assessment of this type of degradation. The different kinds of data for indicators of current status of vegetation degradation were gathered from collecting of field data and also records of the governmental offices of Iran. Taking into consideration three indicators of current status of vegetation degradation the model identifies areas with different hazard classes. By fixing the thresholds of severity classes of the three indicators including per cent of vegetation cover, biomass production and ratio of actual biomass to potential biomass production, a hazard map for each indicator was first prepared in GIS. The final hazard map of current status of vegetation degradation was prepared by intersecting three hazards in the GIS. Results show areas under severe hazard class have been found to be widespread (89 %) while areas under moderate and very severe hazard classes have been found less extensive in the Sadra watershed. The preparation of hazard maps based on the GIS analysis of these indicators will be helpful for prioritizing the areas to initiate remedial measures.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.15-26
• /
• 2000

This paper considers an aperiodic preventive maintenance (PM) model for repairable systems, in which the time intervals between two consecutive preventive maintenances are unequal. To propose such an aperiodic PM model, we assume that each PM reduces the current hazard rate by a certain amount which depends on the number of PMs performed previously. If the system fails between PMs, the minimal repair is performed and the hazard rate remains unchanged after the repair. We give the exact expressions for the hazard rate function for the aperiodic PM model. Based on the proposed aperiodic PM model, we suggest the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters characterizing the model and apply the method to the case of Weibull distribution. Numerical examples for estimating the parameters are presented for the purpose of illustration.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.65-76
• /
• 2014

In this article, a new model based on Lomax distribution is introduced. This new model is both useful and practical in areas such as economic, reliability and life testing. Some statistical properties of this model are presented including moments, hazard rate, reversed hazard rate, mean residual life and mean inactivity time functions, among others. It is also shown that the distributions of the new model are ordered with respect to the strongest likelihood ratio ordering. The method of moment and maximum likelihood estimation are used to estimates the unknown parameters. Simulation is utilized to calculate the unknown shape parameter and to study its properties. Finally, to illustrate the concepts, the appropriateness of the new model for real data sets are included.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.27-39
• /
• 2013

In this article, a new model based on the Rayleigh distribution is introduced. This model is useful and practical in physics, reliability, and life testing. The statistical and reliability properties of this model are presented, including moments, the hazard rate, the reversed hazard rate, and mean residual life functions, among others. In addition, it is shown that the distributions of the new model are ordered regarding the strongest likelihood ratio ordering. Four estimating methods, namely, method of moment, maximum likelihood method, Bayes estimation, and uniformly minimum variance unbiased, are used to estimate the parameters of this model. Simulation is used to calculate the estimates and to study their properties. Finally, the appropriateness of this model for real data sets is shown by using the chi-square goodness of fit test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.359-370
• /
• 1999

We considered a change-point hazard rate model generalizing constant hazard rate model. This type of model is very popular in the sense that the Weibull and exponential distributions formulating survival time data are the special cases of it. Maximum likelihood estimation and the asymptotic properties such as the consistency and its limiting distribution of the change-point estimator were discussed. A parametric bootstrap method for finding confidence intervals of the unknown change-point was also suggested and the proposed method is explained through a practical example.