• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Directions

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A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

A Study on the Tempo Direction of Narrative Webtoons -Focusing on - (서사 웹툰에서 템포 연출의 재미 요소에 대한 연구 -<묘진전>을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Seong-jae
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.47
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    • pp.193-215
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    • 2017
  • This study has researched that tempo is an element influencing the fun of narrative webtoon. In spite of many elements that could create fun in narrative webtoon, the theory this study pays attention to is the accumulation and solution of tension. Lee Hyun-bee said in his book that the accumulation and solution of tension would be the element creating fun. Tensions of a story create the immersion by bringing readers into the story. However, if such tensions are maintained throughout the whole story, readers get insensitive to tensions, so that the accumulation and solution of tension should be used in turn to maintain the immersion. One of the directions creating the accumulation and solution of tension in narrative webtoon is the direction of tempo. When creating a narrative webtoon with the full-length structure, it is not easy to describe the whole incident from beginning to the end of it in order of time. Therefore, it is inevitable to have differences between story time and narrative time, and the difference of this time is called 'tempo'. This tempo creates fun when readers are immersed in the work, by adjusting breaths of the story in the direction of narrative webtoon. Such a role of tempo direction is based on the relation between the occurrence of tempo direction and information of the story. The information actually leading the story creates the accumulation and relief of tension which is the essential element of fun formation while tempo also maximizes the effects of accumulation and relief of tension. Tempo direction in narrative webtoons uses panels and gaps between them. The scene direction using panels and gaps between them considers tempo and dynamics because of the temporality of panels and gaps between them. This paper analyzes the use of tempo direction for narrative webtoon through the analysis on the 1st episode of . The significance of this study is to reveal that tempo direction is one of the factors creating fun in narrative webtoons, and also to suggest the theoretical grounds for researches on direction creating fun in the future.

Assessment of Strategy and Achievements of Eco Industrial Park (EIP) Initiative in Korea (우리나라 생태산업단지 구축사업의 추진전략과 성과평가)

  • Park, Jun-Mo;Kim, Hyeong-Woo;Park, Hung-Suck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.803-812
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    • 2014
  • This study assesses the strategy and performance of Eco-industrial Park (EIP) initiative implemented by Korea Industrial Complex Corporation (KICOX) with the support of Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE), Korea since 2005 to 2013 and recommends future directions. After the concept of EIP based on industrial symbiosis (IS) is introduced, the background and implementation procedure of the EIP initiative are described. Then, economic and environmental achievement was assessed. During the project periods (2005-2013), 449 industrial symbiosis project were explored, among which 296 projects have been implemented. Among (Of these 296 projects,) them, 244 projects have been completed in which 118 projects have been commercialized which shows 48% commercialization rate of the completed projects. Through these commercialized projects, around 311.1 billion won/year of economic benefits and reduction of waste by-products of 828,113 tons/year, wastewater of 215,517 tons/year, reduction in energy consumption of 250,475 toe/year and GHG emission reduction of 1,107,189 $tCO_2/year$ were achieved. This results confirmed that EIP initiative based on industrial symbiosis can enhance eco-efficiency of industrial parks and harmonize economy and environment. However, there are obstacles like absence of interagency coordination and cooperation, laws and institutional barriers, increased demand for local governments, funding for project investment. Thus, to utilize EIP initiative as a strategic tool for competiveness and environmental management of industrial parks, it needs intergovernmental collaboration and interdisciplinary approach to lower barrier in implementation.

A Study on Reorganization of System of Assistant Police Officer (치안보조인력 제도의 개편에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Moon-Kwi
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.62
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    • pp.255-276
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    • 2020
  • The mandatory police system, which plays a pivotal role in securing security and securing social safety as a security assistant, is expected to face difficulties in supplying the mandatory police manpower and securing absolute police manpower in the future according to the Ministry of Defense's abolition of the conversion service system. In this situation, this study intends to provide a concrete plan to replace the mandatory police officers as security assistants, recruiting contractors from civilians who are not military service resources or regular police officers, and using them for security assistance. More ultimately, this study goes beyond securing obligatory police to reduce or abolish mandatory police, which has been dealt with in previous studies. It aims to present the rescue and operation directions so that the police can provide quality public security services. In order to achieve the purpose of this study, this study 1) analyzes the current situation of police personnel, derives the necessity and justification of securing the police personnel or increasing the number of police personnel due to changes in security demand and security environment, and 2) After discussing the necessity and direction of reorganization, 3) deriving policy implications through analysis of foreign cases operating similar systems to derive specific plans for the introduction of security contractors for private contract workers in Korea. This study reviewed the specific operation plan and legal and institutional maintenance plan of private contract workers. In order to achieve these research objectives, this study 1) analyzes the current status of the police manpower and derives the necessity and justification of securing an absolute police manpower or increasing the manpower of the police in response to changes in security demand and security environment, and the current security aid system. 2) After discussing the necessity and orientation of reorganization of exinsting system of assistant police officer, 3) derive policy implications through analysis of foreign cases utilizing security aids similar to Korea, and 4) The specific operation plan and legal and institutional maintenance plan were presented. including security aids for private contract workers in Korea, from recruitment procedures to activities.

Studios on Silkworm Selection by Use of Anesthetic(2) (The Effect for next Generation through Anesthesia) (마취제처리에 의한 잠아선발 연구 (2) (마취잠의 차대에 미치는 영향))

  • Choe, Byong-Hee;Lee, Sang-Poong
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.15-20
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    • 1973
  • This will be second publication regard with silkworm selection using anesthetic followed by previous report. This treatise investigated for nacorsis recovery concerned with silkworm health through more directions than the previous paper. After the author has found a possibility of silkworm seperation through nacorsis recovery, he has recommended to use Balance Health (BH) value system to evaluate or identify silkworm health and to produce better homogeneous silkworm eggs. Also, the author has continued the observation for the next generation how once nacortized parents affect to their family. The obtained results are summarized as followings. 1. Basic investigation a) Hybrid silkworm variety recovers from nacorsis earlyer than pure line because it is stronger. b) Strong pure line variety recovers from nacorsis earlyer than weak one because it is stronger. c) Male worm recovers from nacorsis earlyer than female worm because it is stronger. 2. Establishment of Balance Health(BH) value system. In order to identify each seperated group by nacorsis and their family, the following Balance Health (BH) value indicating system was established.(Table Omitted) 3. In order to select better silkworm during breeding service, the BH value indicating system is strongly recommended. That is, in case BH value is smaller than four, it would be strong group or in case BH value is larger than four, it would be weak group. 4. Once nacortized parents do not harm any nature for next generation regardless P$_1$ or F$_1$ production. 5. The seperation through nacorsis may delay retrograde phenomenon some years than other case, so, this system should be used for pure line production every year. 6. It is recommended to nacortize silkworm for five minutes on breeding purpose, but two and half minutes on pure lines reproduction at fifth instar. 7. This report has been discussed in relation to practical industry promotion aspects, but there are many subjects to be solved from academical aspect in future

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Olympic Advertisers Win Gold, Experience Stock Price Gains During and After the Games (오운선수작위엄고대언인영득금패(奥运选手作为广告代言人赢得金牌), 비새중화비새후적고표개격상양(比赛中和比赛后的股票价格上扬))

  • Tomovick, Chuck;Yelkur, Rama
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.80-88
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    • 2010
  • There has been considerable research examining the relationship between stockholders equity and various marketing strategies. These include studies linking stock price performance to advertising, customer service metrics, new product introductions, research and development, celebrity endorsers, brand perception, brand extensions, brand evaluation, company name changes, and sports sponsorships. Another facet of marketing investments which has received heightened scrutiny for its purported influence on stockholder equity is television advertisement embedded within specific sporting events such as the Super Bowl. Research indicates that firms which advertise in Super Bowls experience stock price gains. Given this reported relationship between advertising investment and increased shareholder value, for both general and special events, it is surprising that relatively little research attention has been paid to investigating the relationship between advertising in the Olympic Games and its subsequent impact on stockholder equity. While attention has been directed at examining the effectiveness of sponsoring the Olympic Games, much less focus has been placed on the financial soundness of advertising during the telecasts of these Games. Notable exceptions to this include Peters (2008), Pfanner (2008), Saini (2008), and Keller Fay Group (2009). This paper presents a study of Olympic advertisers who ran TV ads on NBC in the American telecasts of the 2000, 2004, and 2008 Summer Olympic Games. Five hypothesis were tested: H1: The stock prices of firms which advertised on American telecasts of the 2008, 2004 and 2000 Olympics (referred to as O-Stocks), will outperform the S&P 500 during this same period of time (i.e., the Monday before the Games through to the Friday after the Games). H2: O-Stocks will outperform the S&P 500 during the medium term, that is, for the period of the Monday before the Games through to the end of each Olympic calendar year (December 31st of 2000, 2004, and 2008 respectively). H3: O-Stocks will outperform the S&P 500 in the longer term, that is, for the period of the Monday before the Games through to the midpoint of the following years (June 30th of 2001, 2005, and 2009 respectively). H4: There will be no difference in the performance of these O-Stocks vs. the S&P 500 in the Non-Olympic time control periods (i.e. three months earlier for each of the Olympic years). H5: The annual revenue of firms which advertised on American telecasts of the 2008, 2004 and 2000 Olympics will be higher for those years than the revenue for those same firms in the years preceding those three Olympics respectively. In this study, we recorded stock prices of those companies that advertised during the Olympics for the last three Summer Olympic Games (i.e. Beijing in 2008, Athens in 2004, and Sydney in 2000). We identified these advertisers using Google searches as well as with the help of the television network (i.e., NBC) that hosted the Games. NBC held the American broadcast rights to all three Olympic Games studied. We used Internet sources to verify the parent companies of the brands that were advertised each year. Stock prices of these parent companies were found using Yahoo! Finance. Only companies that were publicly held and traded were used in the study. We identified changes in Olympic advertisers' stock prices over the four-week period that included the Monday before through the Friday after the Games. In total, there were 117 advertisers of the Games on telecasts which were broadcast in the U.S. for 2008, 2004, and 2000 Olympics. Figure 1 provides a breakdown of those advertisers, by industry sector. Results indicate the stock of the firms that advertised (O-Stocks) out-performed the S&P 500 during the period of interest and under-performed the S&P 500 during the earlier control periods. These same O-Stocks also outperformed the S&P 500 from the start of these Games through to the end of each Olympic year, and for six months beyond that. Price pressure linkage, signaling theory, high involvement viewers, and corporate activation strategies are believed to contribute to these positive results. Implications for advertisers and researchers are discussed, as are study limitations and future research directions.

A Study on the Awareness of the Yearly Income System among Dental Personnels (치과의료 종사자들의 연봉제 실시에 관한 의식도 조사연구)

  • Yoon, Mi-Sook;Lee, Kyung-Hee
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.5-10
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to examine how medical personnels in the field of dentistry perceived the introduction of the yearly income system in an effort to determine some of the right directions for that and find out in which way that could be vitalized. For that purpose, literature concerned and relevant materials were reviewed, and a survey was conducted on 95 medical personnels, who were working at dental hospitals and clinics throughout the nation, for approximately five months from April through August 2002. After the collected data were analyzed, the following findings were acquired; (1) Regarding their awareness of the yearly income system by the type of institute, the workers from the dental hospitals found the yearly income system, more than the others from the dental clinics did, to enlarge their sense of involvement in management (p<.001), further work productivity(p<.01), awake their target-oriented sense of mission(p<.01) and make them feel uneasy about their future(p<.05). (2) As to differences between the dentists and dental hygienists, the former group had a higher opinion about that system(p<.01) and its effect on impartial performance appraisal(p<.01), encouraging medical personnels to deploy their abilities(p<.01), furthering work productivity(p<.001), intensifying a target-oriented sense of mission(p<.001). (3) Concerning their perception by career, those who had longer experience to work in that field considered it to strengthen work severity(p<.05) more than the others who had shorter experience did, and the former group thought that system was more likely to concentrate on a short-term achievement (p<.05). The workers who had been working for three to five years were more conscious of change in office hours (p<.01), and those who had been working for two or less years viewed that system most favorably(p<.05). (4) In order for that system to be successful, impartial performance appraisal was most widely called for(31.6%), followed by trust between labor and management(26.3%), worker's positive attitude toward that system(16.8%), CEO's firm belief in that(12.3%), and setting up a feasible target. The workers from the dental hospitals put more stress on medical personnel's favorable attitude toward that system(p<.05) than the others from the dental clinics did. And the dentists placed more stock in setting up a feasible target, which was a criteria of determining the amount of annual income, than the dental hygienists did.

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The Analysis of the Trend of Research on Gastric Cancer Reported in Professional Journals in the Field of Surgery in Korea (국내 전문 학술지에 의한 위암 외과의 연구 경향에 대한 분석)

  • Oh, Cheong-Ah;Kim, Dae-Hoon;Oh, Seung-Jong;Cho, Hyun-Jin;Choi, Min-Gew;Noh, Jae-Hyung;Sohn, Tae-Sung;Bae, Jae-Moon;Kim, Sung
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.186-192
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the trend of the literature reported in the Journal of Korean Gastric Cancer Association (JKGCA) and the Journal of Korean Surgical Society (JKSS) in order to suggest new directions for the future studies on gastric cancer. Materials and Methods: The papers published in the Journal of Korean Gastric Cancer Association (JKGCA) and the Journal of Korean Surgical Society (JKSS) between 2001 and 2008 were compared and summarized in terms of the following categories, retrospective study, prospective study, case report, biomolecular study, genetic study, tumor marker study, review article, and report. Results: For recent 8 years, while the number of review articles in JKSS had initially increased, gradually fallen down and recently increased again, only a few (only 6 publications) in JKGCA have been published. The number of case reports in JKSS has gradually increased and fallen down. On the other hand, a few of case reports (1~3 publications) has been annually published in JKSS. Uniquely, reports were published only in JKGCA with the noticeable increase during the period from 2004 to 2005. For retrospective studies, in JKGCA the number started off very high and decreased, and finally increased again (U-shaped), whereas it had a bell-shaped trend in JKSS. The number of prospective studies in JKGCA had a bell-shaped trend, but the one in JKSS continued to decrease. Few papers of molecular biologic study, tumor marker study and genetic study had been published in both journals. Conclusion: We concluded that the transition from retrospective studies to prospective studies as well as a comprehensive multi-disciplinary team management of a clinical research would represent a desirable strategy in gastric cancer research.

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Factors Influencing the Preference for German farm Tourism: A Path Model Approach

  • Sidali, Katia Laura;Spiller, A.
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.33-59
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    • 2008
  • This paper aims to analyse the preference for German farm tourism among the German population. For this reason, we conducted an empirical study in Germany during summer 2007 and we applieda structural equation model based on partial leasts quares(PLS) to analyse the data. In the following chapters we will introduce the literature review and our conceptual frame work. We will then outline the procedures we adopted and the results of the empirical analysis. In the final part so me conclusions will be presented and a discussion will follow in order to draw the future directions of our research. According to our hypotheses, the possibility that agri-tourism enters in the evoked set of an individual is higher: H1: The higher the information degree about it. H2: The lower the influence of the social stimuli. H3: The higher the physical exposure to it (experience). H4: The higher the wellness image of agri-tourism. H5: The higher the traditional image of agri-tourism. H6: The higher the exciting image of agri-tourism. H7: The higher the perceived value for money. Our further hypotheses affirm that the possibility that agri-tourism enters in the evoked set of an individual is higher: H8: The lower the perceived risk. H9: The higher the motive to enjoy a holiday in the nature. H10: The higher the motive to enjoy a sport holiday. H11: The lower the motive to have an organized holiday. H12: The lower the motive to have a holiday abroad. H13: The lower the motive of action and night life. H14: The higher the motive to spend a holiday with the family. H15: The lower the motive to spend a city holiday. Finally, our model has some socio-demographics data. As we mentioned before, German agri-tourism has traditionally been the travel destination of large-size families, with low-to-middle income. For that reason, our final hypothesises are the following: the possibility that agri-tourism enters in the evoked-set of an individual is higher: H16: The higher the number of family members. H17: The lower the family income. Since in this study we use a path model with a PLS approach, we are able to state some interrelations among the exogenous latent variables: H18: The motive of sport holiday has a positive influence towards nature motives. H19: The physical exposition to agri-tourism has a positive influence toward information. H20: The motive of family holiday has a negative influence toward the motive of action and night life. H21: Social stimuli have a positive influence towards individuals risk perceptions. H22: Social stimuli have negative influence towards experience. Data for this study were gathered via administrated questionnaires during the summer 2007 within the frame of an academic "marketing research" course. The corresponding t-values are assessed using the bootstrapping method with 500 re-samples. In our model 61% of the degree of appreciation of German agri-tourism (evoked set) is explained by five independent variables: value for money ($0.335^{{\ast}{\ast}{\ast}}$) (H7) experience ($0.267^{{\ast}{\ast}}$) (H3), exciting image ($0.204^{\ast}$) (H6) organisation ($-0.162^{\ast}$) (H11) and holiday abroad ($-0.156^{\ast}$) (H12). The variance explained ($R^2$) for the other endogenous variables are the following: nature 24.3%, information 14.1%, action holiday 13.8%, risk perception 5.8% and experience 2.4%. An overview can be inferred from table 5. The results also allow us to test each of the proposed hypotheses. With exception of organization and abroad, none of the others travel style factors (H9 to H15) seem to have any significant impact towards evoked set which leads to the rejection of the respective hypotheses. As expected, social stimuli have a significant influence on individuals' risk perception (H21 accepted), however neither the former nor the latter have a valuable impact on evoked set (rejection of H2 and H8). Besides, since the influence of social stimuli towards experience is not significant, also H22 has to be rejected. Experience influences information (H19 accepted) but the latter does not affect significantly the evoked set (H1 rejected). Both H4 as well as H5, referring respectively to the perceived images of German agri-tourism as a wellness destination and the traditional image of the German farm tourism have to be rejected. Finally, none of the demographic data included in the model explains significantly the variance of the factor evoked set. Therefore neither H16 nor H17 has been accepted. As far as the interrelation between sport and nature (H18) and family and action (H20) are concerned, the stated relationship among these variables has been statistically confirmed. Our path model based on partial least squares shows the factors influencing the preference for farm tourism in Germany. Among others value for money and experience are the most significant ones. Practical implications are discussed.

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A Study on the Vocational High School-to-Work Opportunities System and Training of the Department of Landscape Architecture (특성화고 조경과 학생들의 기능인력 양성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Joon-Ho;Jung, Tae-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2013
  • The goal of vocational school is to provide students with basic skills and help develop them to have satisfactory careers. With the knowledge they have learned, it helps them to find their interests and aptitudes when they graduate. The government is putting a lot of effort into clarifying the goal accomplishment and the vision proposals of vocational schools, and the structure-oriented guidance controlled by the government is thought to be very influential to the social structure and individual perceptions. Social stereotypes(discrimination) and perceptions that can be the core of a social structure need to be transformed for people to be fulfilled in their careers in the upcoming advanced Korean society. The important solution is to form correct values and a system of career selection which can ensure a stable future for students. Therefore, to carry out research regarding training human resources in terms of students from vocational schools' landscape architecture majors in an approaching method with a new perspective, we analyzed education plans from vocational schools in 11 regions, textbooks used in common, governmental publications regarding career education policies of vocational schools and questionnaires from students who are majoring in landscape architecture at vocational schools. As a result, we were able to find out the types and the frequencies of career-occupation education at each school through analysis of education plans and the necessity to control the amount and the level of the contents for high school students to have careers in analyzing textbooks. In addition, in Ministry of Education, Science and Technology's analyzing career education policies of vocational schools, we figured out the government's policies and directions of training. From the questionnaires from students majoring in landscape architecture, we were able to compare and analyze the satisfaction level of students on career education(education plans), textbooks, governmental career policies and career selection.