• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.45-58
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• 2012

The traditional four-step demand model has limits in that it cannot reasonably reflect the logistic characteristics of freight transportation system. This is likely to cause problems when estimating the effects of logistics facilities. In order to enhance the reliability and availability of the freight demand estimation procedure it is needed to develop freight demand model which takes into account the logistic characteristics of firms. In the late 1990s, a number of researches on freight demand model considering logistics behaviors began in Europe while a few studies in the area have been conducted recently in Korea. This paper reviews recent advances of the freight model developments in the context of logistic behavior consideration. The main topics include 1) commodity classification, 2) P/C(Production- Consumption) estimation, 3) logistics network representation, 4) logistics chain model, and 5) commodity flow survey. In addition, this paper proposes future direction of the freight demand models with respect to the consideration of logistics characteristics.

• International Journal of Railway
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.139-143
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• 2012

In Korea, almost 700 industrial parks are under operation. Generally, industrial parks consist of national industrial parks and local industrial parks which are managed by a central government and by local governments respectively. The developing countries such as Korea, China and Vietnam etc. have constructed many industrial parks, which result in the change of land use pattern and also affect future trip demands. Therefore, in estimating traffic demands, it is very important to consider the industrial park development. This study aims to improve the methodology in estimating a freight trip generation rate with the data based on a nationwide commodity freight survey. The result showed that it is desirable to apply freight trip generation rate by the industry sector in estimating freight trip generations and using the production area of firm as an indicator. Specially, the reliability of the rates through a survey could be made sure because a sample rate based on firms in industrial parks was over 25% and the response rate was over 67%. The sample rate and response rate are very superior as compared to surveys conducted in many other countries. Because industrial parks have significant effects on forecasting transportation demand in pre-feasibility studies of transport and logistics projects, it is expected that the accuracy of freight trip demands would be improved through the results of this study.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.1-15
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• 2009

Central supply depot of Air Force has been receiving and storing the goods from the inside and outside of the country. And it also has been distributing the goods to the air base by air, rail, road, etc. These goods have been called central goods. Among these central goods, 10% of them are transported by air and the amount of freight is increasing day by day. So, air transportation in the Air Force has been more important than ever. But, studies of demand estimation for activating air transportation are very difficient. This study verified the main factors affecting to air transportation and the function of regression model will be useful data for estimating air freight demand.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.5 s.83
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• pp.65-71
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• 2005

Area type is often used in freight demand analysis and logistics planning models. For example, in freight transportation planning. area type variable is most often commonly used in freight generation (attraction) model. Yet a reliable, forecastable and measurable definition or area type is generally not documented. In fact, there is little literature on the subject of predicting area type in the context of freight planning models. This can be troublesome when applying models to long-range logistics planning where significant changes in population and employment result in changes in the general character of an area. Through the use of Discriminant Model, GIS (Geographic Information System) analysis and Delphi methods, this paper presents the successful exploration for a quantifiable means of determining area type.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.7-18
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• 2001

This study represents a first attempt in Korea to develop the simultaneous freight supply-demand model which considers the relationship between freight supply and demand. As the existing study was limited in one area, or the supply and the demand was separated and assumed not to affect each other, this study take it into consideration the fact that the demand affects supply and simultaneously vice versa. This approach allows us to diagnose a policy carried on and helps us to make a resonable alternative for the effectiveness of freight transportation system. To find a relationship between them, we use a method of econometrics. a structural equation theory and two stage least-squares(2SLS) estimation technique, to get rid of bias which involves two successive applications of OLS. Based on the domestic freight data, this study consider as explanatory variables a number of population(P), industry(IN), the amount of production of the mining and manufacturing industries(MMI), the rate of the effectiveness of freight capacity(LE) and the distance of an empty carriage operation(VC). This study describes well the simultaneous process of freight supply-demand system in that the increase of VC from the decrease of VC raises the cargo capacity and cargo capacity also augments VC. By the way. it is analyzed that the increment of VC due to the increase of the cargo capacity is larger than the reduction of VC owing to the increase of the quantify of goods. Therefore an alternative policy is needed in a short and long run point of view. That is to say, to promote the effectiveness of the freight transportation system, a short term supply control and a long run logistic infrastructure are urgent based on the restoration of market economy by successive deregulation. So we are able to conclude that gradual deregulation is more desirable to build effective freight market.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.1125-1131
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• 2005

This study is based on the assumption of surface transport linkages between Korea and China. Active economic cooperation between South Korea and North Korea are expected within the near future and Russia and China have interested in the land transport linkages in Korean peninsula. How much freight demands between the two countries that has been mainly dependent on air and sea transportation so far may convert the transport mode to surface transportation are estimated. Particularly, freight demands between South Korea and China's three northeast provinces are focused. The sensitivity analysis depends on transport time and transport cost changes is included. The modal shifts is estimated to be more sensitive to the changes in transport costs than those in transport time, suggesting the importance of transport costs of rail and road. Despite the dearth of data on the surface transport operation in North Korea, the attempts made in this study to estimate the demand conversion are hope to provide reference points for potential effects of the rail and road transport connections between China and the Korea peninsula before our discussions expand to the establishment of freight transport network of the northest Asia and, moreover, the Eurasian continent.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.45-59
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• 2013

This study deals with the comparative analysis between two freight demand estimation methods : Unimodal O/D based method and P/C based method. The data of access/egress truck trips has been omitted from the Korean freight unimodal O/D of KTDB. This is because KTDB's unimodal O/D has not marked the series of unlinked trips down as the whole freight intermodal transport and surveyed only the main-haul trips of them. For these reasons, freight intermodal transport mechanism has not been analysed perfectly with Korean unimodal O/D data. This study tries to estimate P/C table of Korean Import/Export container freight and develop the MCC(Multimodal Channel Choice) model. Then, comparing unimodal O/D based method and P/C based method in terms of the switch commodities between production point(the initial point of freight transport) and consumption point(the terminal point of freight transport), unimodal commodities, and commodities on links is conducted. The results show that the P/C based method is able to simulate the freight intermodal transport.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.69-88
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• 2023

This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of cargo volume (demand), ship fleet (supply), and freight rate (price) of container, dry bulk, and tanker shipping markets by using the VAR and VECM models. This analysis is expected to enhance the statistical understanding of market dynamics, which is perceived by the actual experiences of market participants. The common statistical patterns, which are all shown in the three shipping markets, are as follows: 1) The Granger-causality test reveals that the past increase of fleet variable induces the present decrease of freight rate variable. 2) The impulse-response analysis shows that cargo shock increases the freight rate but fleet shock decreases the freight rate. 3) Among the three cargo, fleet, and freight rate shocks, the freight rate shock is overwhelmingly largest. 4) The comparison of adjR² reveals that the fleet variable is most explained by the endogenous variables, i.e., cargo, fleet, and freight rate in each of shipping markets. 5) The estimation of co-integrating vectors shows that the increase of cargo increases the freight rate but the increase of fleet decreases the freight rate. 6) The estimation of adjustment speed demonstrates that the past-period positive deviation from the long-run equilibrium freight rate induces the decrease of present freight rate.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.107-118
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• 2012

The purpose of the study is to analyze the travel characteristics of freight trucks in metropolitan areas, focusing on activity generation, destination choice, and trip chaining behaviors. The results showed that the number of service companies at departure areas has a primary influence on the activity generation pattern and destination choice behavior of trucks in metropolitan areas. The number of trips within a trip chain is largest, in case where the prevailing industry in destination areas is wholesale or retail and the shipment item is food or beverage. These results imply that for the reasonable estimation of truck travel demand both the trip chaining behaviors and the industrial compositions in departure and destination areas should be separately considered for each type of commodity.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.133-146
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to develop a supply chain-based freight distribution channel choice model considering shippers' logistics behaviors which will be used for freight demand estimation. For this purpose, this study utilized the distribution channel data of the petrochemical and automobile industries collected by KTDB center. The distribution channel choice models for these industries were developed by including transport mode, time, cost, and shipment size. It was found that the multinomial logit model with transport cost, time and shipment size is the best, and as shipment increases, bigger transport mode is preferred. Generally direct distribution channel with small truck was preferred over the one using distribution center and/or big truck.