Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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Research Trend for Improvement of Freight Demand Estimation Methods

화물수요추정방법 개선을 위한 국내외 연구동향 분석 연구

  • 신승진 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 박동주 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 오정택 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 김시진 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과)
  • Received : 2011.11.19
  • Accepted : 2012.01.04
  • Published : 2012.02.28
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Abstract

The traditional four-step demand model has limits in that it cannot reasonably reflect the logistic characteristics of freight transportation system. This is likely to cause problems when estimating the effects of logistics facilities. In order to enhance the reliability and availability of the freight demand estimation procedure it is needed to develop freight demand model which takes into account the logistic characteristics of firms. In the late 1990s, a number of researches on freight demand model considering logistics behaviors began in Europe while a few studies in the area have been conducted recently in Korea. This paper reviews recent advances of the freight model developments in the context of logistic behavior consideration. The main topics include 1) commodity classification, 2) P/C(Production- Consumption) estimation, 3) logistics network representation, 4) logistics chain model, and 5) commodity flow survey. In addition, this paper proposes future direction of the freight demand models with respect to the consideration of logistics characteristics.

기존의 전통적 4단계 수요추정기법은 화물의 물류특성(Logistics Characteristics)을 반영하지 못하는 한계가 있다. 이로 인해 물류시설의 신설 개선에 따른 수요 및 편익변화를 제대로 추정을 하지 못한다. 따라서 화물수요추정 과정의 신뢰도 및 활용도 제고를 위해 물류특성을 고려한 화물수요추정방법의 개발이 요구된다. 화물수요추정방법의 개선을 위해 1990년대 후반부터 유럽을 중심으로 물류행태 반영방법에 대한 연구가 시작되었다. 이에 반해 우리나라는 이러한 분야에 대한 연구가 미흡한 편이다. 본 연구는 물류행태 반영방법 및 대규모 화물조사에 대한 국내외 학술대회 발표논문, 학술지 게재논문 및 연구보고서 등을 바탕으로 1) 화물 품목구분, 2) P/C(Production- Consumption) 구축, 3) 물류 네트워크 구축, 4) 물류체인모형(logistics chain model) 구축, 5) 대규모 화물조사 분야에 대한 국내외 사례 및 최근 연구동향을 조사 분석하고 시사점을 도출하였다. 또한 화물수요추정방법 개선을 위한 발전방향을 제시하였다.

Keywords

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