• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.316-324
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the replacement cycle applied age replacement policy by reliability analysis based on railway vehicle contactor's failure history data. Method: We performed reliability analysis based on railway vehicle contactor's failure history data. We found a suitable distribution by goodness of fit test and predicted the reliability through estimation of scale & shape parameter. Considering cost information we determined the replacement cycle that minimize the opportunity cost. Result: Suitable distribution was the Weibull and scale parameter & shape parameter are estimated by reliability analysis. The replacement cycle was predicted and MTTF, $B_6$ percentile life were suggested additionally. Conclusion: We confirmed that failure rate type of railway vehicle contactor is degradation model having a time dependent characteristic and examined the replacement cycle in our country's operating environment. We expect that this study result contribute to railway operation agency for maintenance policy decision.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.35-40
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• 2008

소트프웨어 고장 시간은 테스팅 시간과 관계없이 일정하거나, 단조 증가 혹은 단조 감소 추세를 가지고 있다. 이러한 소프트웨어 신뢰모형들을 분석하기 위한 자료척도로 자료에 대한 추세 검정이 개발되어 있다. 추세 분석에는 산술평균 검정과 라플라스 추세 검정 등이 있다. 추세분석들은 전체적인 자료의 개요의 정보만 제공한다. 본 논문에서는 고장시간을 측정하다가 시간절단이 될 경우에 미래의 고장 시간 예측에 관하여 연구되었다. 고장 시간 예측에 사용된 고장시간자료는 소프트웨어 고장 시간 분포에 널리 사용되는 와이블 분포에서 형상모수가 1이고 척도모수가 0.5를 가진 난수를 발생된 모의 자료를 이용 하였다. 이 자료를 이용하여 시계열 분석에 이용되는 ARIMA 모형 중에서 AR(1) 모형과 모의실험을 통한 예측 방법을 제안하였다. 이 방법에서 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 예측방법이 효율적임을 입증 하였다.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.25-32
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• 2017

For repairable software systems, the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) is used as a measure of software system stability. Therefore, the evaluation of software reliability requirements or reliability characteristics can be applied MTBF. In this paper, we want to compare MTBF in terms of parameter estimation using Makeham life distribution. The parameter estimates used the least square method which is regression analyzer method and the maximum likelihood method. As a result, the MTBF using the least square method shows a non-decreased pattern and case of the maximum likelihood method shows a non-increased form as the failure time increases. In comparison with the observed MTBF, MTBF using the maximum likelihood estimation is smallerd about difference of interval than the least square estimation which is regression analyzer method. Thus, In terms of MTBF, the maximum likelihood estimation has efficient than the regression analyzer method. In terms of coefficient of determination, the mean square error and mean error of prediction, the maximum likelihood method can be judged as an efficient method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.137-154
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• 2006

The reliable pushover analysis of RC structures requires a realistic prediction of moment-curvature relations, which can be obtained by utilizing proper constitutive models for the stress-strain relationships of laterally confined concrete members. Theoretical approach of Mander is still a single stress-strain model, which employs a multiaxial failure surface for the determination of the ultimate strength of confined concrete. Alternatively, this paper introduces a simple and practical failure criterion for confined concrete with emphasis on introduction of significant modifications into the two-parameter Drucker-Prager model. The new criterion is only applicable to triaxial compression stress state which is exactly the case in the RC columns. Unlike many existing multi-parameter criteria proposed for the concrete fracture, the model needs only the compressive strength of concrete as an independent parameter and also implies for the influence of the Lode angle on the material strength. Adopting Saenz equation for stress-strain plots, satisfactory agreement between the measured and predicted results for the available experimental test data of confined normal and high strength concrete specimens is obtained. Moreover, it is found that further work involving the confinement pressure is still encouraging since the confinement model of Mander overestimates the ultimate strength of some RC columns.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.183-194
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• 1997

이 논문의 목적은 제2종 중도절단자료된 가속수명 자료가 형상모수를 고정시킨 와이블분포를 한다는 가정에서 데이터에 대한 경험적베이즈 방법을 이용하여 분석하는데 있다. 이 논문에서는 적률추정법과 최우추정법을 이용한 경험적 베이지안 방법을 제안하고, Pathak등에 의해 제안된 경험적베이지안 방법과 비교한다. 특히, 인위적 자료를 이용한 모의 실험을 통하여 추정량들을 추정된 베이즈위험측면에서 비교한다.

• 융합정보논문지
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• 제9권8호
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• pp.20-26
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 무한고장 NHPP 로맥스 수명분포의 형상모수 변화에 따른 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형의 속성을 새롭게 분석한 후 최적의 형상모수 조건을 제시하였다. 소프트웨어 고장현상을 분석하기 위하여 모수추정은 최우추정법을 사용하였고, 비선형 방정식의 계산은 이분법을 적용하였다. 그 결과, 형상모수(k)의 변화에 따른 속성을 비교하였을 때 형상모수가 작을 수록 참값에 대한 예측능력이 우수하고, 신뢰 속성이 효율적임을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구를 통하여, 소프트웨어 개발자들은 형상모수에 근거한 소프트웨어 고장형태를 사전에 파악함으로서 신뢰도를 성장시킬 수 가 있으며, 또한, 소프트웨어의 신뢰속성을 향상시키는데 필요한 기본정보로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.545-557
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• 2024

A real-case incident occurred where a 9-meter-high segment of a pre-fabricated concrete separation wall unexpectedly collapsed. This collapse was triggered by improperly depositing excavated soil against the wall's back, a condition for which the wall segments were not designed to withstand lateral earth pressure, leading to a flexural failure. The event's analysis, integrating technical data and observational insights, revealed that internal forces at the time of failure significantly exceeded the wall's capacity per standard design. The Lattice Discrete Particle Model (LDPM) further replicates the collapse mechanism. Our approach involved defining various parameter sets to replicate the concrete's mechanical response, consistent with the tested compressive strength. Subsequent stages included calibrating these parameters across different scales and conducting full-scale simulations. These simulations carried out with various parameter sets, were thoroughly analyzed to identify the most representative failure mechanism. We developed an equation from this analysis that quickly correlates the parameters to the wall's load-carry capacity, aligned with the simulation. Additionally, our study examined the wall's post-peak behavior, extending up to the point of collapse. This aspect of the analysis was essential for preventing failure, providing crucial time for intervention, and potentially averting a disaster. However, the reinforced concrete residual state is far from being fully understood. While it's impractical for engineers to depend on the residual state of structural elements during the design phase, comprehending this state is essential for effective response and mitigation strategies after initial failure occurs.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.262-266
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• 2014

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the confidence level in zero-failure reliability sampling plans when the life distribution is Weibull distribution with a shape parameter m and a scale parameter ${\eta}$. We introduce zero-failure reliability sampling plans for Weibull distribution and investigate some characteristics of zero-failure reliability sampling plans. Finally, We propose new guideline for determining the confidence level in zero-failure reliability sampling plans for assuring $B_x-life$.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.243-250
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• 2002

This paper considers the problem of estimating parameters of the bivariate exponential distribution with a location parameter for a two-component shared parallel system using component data from system-level life test terminated at the time of the prespecified number of system failure. In the system-level life testing, there are three patterns of failure types ; 1) both component failed 2) both component censored 3) one is failed and the other is censored. In the third case, we assume that the failure time might be known or unknown. The maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the case of known/unknown failure time when the other component is censored.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.61-77
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• 2011

One of the most important problems in the estimation of the parameter of the failure model, is the cost of experimental sampling units, which can be reduced by using any prior information available about ${\theta}$, and devising a two-stage pooling shrunken estimation procedure. We have proposed an estimator of the reliability function (R(t)) of the exponential model using two-stage time censored data when a prior value about the unknown parameter (${\theta}$) is available from the past. To compare the performance of the proposed estimator with the classical estimator, computer intensive calculations for bias, mean squared error, relative efficiency, expected sample size and percentage of the overall sample size saved expressions, were done for varying the constants involved in the proposed estimator (${\tilde{R}}$(t)).