• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.403-409
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• 2012

We consider a life testing experiment in which several two-component shared parallel systems are put on test, and the test is terminated at a predesigned experiment time. In this thesis, the maximum likelihood estimators for parameters of Freund's bivariate exponential distribution under the system level life testing are obtained. Results of comparative studies based on Monte Carlo simulation are presented.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.1-14
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• 1997

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of lifetime distribution under stress bounded ramp tests in which the stress is increased linearly from used condition stress to the stress u, pp.r bound. The following assumptions are used: exponential lifetime distribution under a constant stress, an inverse power law relationship between stress and mean of exponential lifetime distribution, and a cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress. Likelihood equations for the parameters involved in the model and asymptotic distribution of the estimators are obtained, and a numerical example is given.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.21-31
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• 1981

This paper develops a short term forecasting model for household electric power consumption in Seoul, which can be used for the effective planning and control of utility management. The model developed is based on exponentially weighted moving average model and incorporates monthly average temperature as an exogeneous factor so as to enhance its forecasting accuracy. The model is empirically compared with the Winters' three parameter model which is widely used in practice and the Box-Jenkins model known to be one of the most accurate short term forecasting techniques. The result indicates that the developed hybrid exponential model is better in terms of accuracy measured by average forecast error, mean squared error, and autocorrelated error.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.189-197
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• 2001

The estimation of mean lifetimes in presence of interval censoring with mixed replacement procedure is examined when the distributions of lifetimes are exponential. It is assumed that, due to physical restrictions and/or economic constraints, the number of failures is investigated only at several inspection times during the lifetime test; thus there is interval censoring. The maximum likelihood estimator is found in an implicit form. The Cramor-Rao lower bound, which is the asymptotic variance of the estimator, is derived. The estimation of mean lifetimes for competing failures model has been expanded.

• 터널과지하공간
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 1998

In order to get the information of the deformational behavior of rock masses with time in waste disposal repository, it is necessary to measure the relationships between stress and strain and time for temperature. A creep law is used in conjunction with the elastic moduli to calculate stress and displacement following waste emplacement. Exponential-time law's parameters consist of stress and temperature. In this study, thermal creep test was carried out for Whangdeung granite. The measured creep deformation behavior was well explained by exponential time law and generalized Kelvin's rheological model. Mechanicla coefficients for exponential-time creep law showed the clear tendency of temperature dependent while those for Kelvein's model didn't.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.55-79
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• 2015

It is well known that using any additional information in the estimation of unknown parameters with new sample of observations diminishes the sampling units needed and minimizes the risk of new estimators. There are many rational reasons to assure that the existence of additional information in practice and there exists many practical cases in which additional information is available in the form of target value (initial value) about the unknown parameters. This article is described the problem of how the prior initial value about the unknown parameters can be utilized and combined with classical Bayes estimator to get a new combination of Bayes estimator and prior value to improve the properties of the new combination. In this article, two classes of Bayes-shrinkage and preliminary test Bayes-shrinkage estimators are proposed for the scale parameter of exponential distribution. The bias, risk and risk ratio expressions are derived and studied. The performance of the proposed classes of estimators is studied for different choices of constants engaged in the estimators. The comparisons, conclusions and recommendations are demonstrated.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.569-574
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• 2010

We consider two components system which have Freund's bivariate exponential model. In this case, Bayesian multiple comparisons procedure for failure rates is sug-gested in K Freund's bivariate exponential populations. Here we assume that the com-ponents enter the study at random over time and the analysis is carried out at some prespeci ed time. We derive fractional Bayes factor for all comparisons under non- informative priors for the parameters and calculate the posterior probabilities for all hypotheses. And we select a hypotheses which has the highest posterior probability as best model. Finally, we give a numerical examples to illustrate our procedure.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.124-141
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• 1994

The maximum likelihood estimator (M.L.E.) and the Bayes estimators of Pr (X < Y) are derived when X and Y have a absolutely continuous bivariate exponential distribution in Block & Basu's model. The performances of M.L.E. are compared to those Bayes estimators for moderate sample size.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.97-105
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• 2013

A stress-strength model is formulated for a multi-component system consisting of k identical components. The k components of the system with random strengths ($X_1$, $X_2$, ${\ldots}$, $X_k$) are subjected to one of the r random stresses ($X_{k+1}$, $X_{k+2}$, ${\ldots}$, $X_{k+r}$). The estimation of system reliability based on maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) and Bayes estimators in k component system are obtained when the system is either parallel or series with the assumption that strengths and stresses follow exponential distribution. A simulation study is conducted to compare MLE and Bayes estimator through the mean squared errors of the estimators.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.28-37
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• 2020

본 연구는 공공자전거의 대여량을 예측하는 딥러닝 모형을 개발하였다. 이를 위하여 공공자전거 대여량 자료, 기상 자료, 그리고 지하철 이용량 자료를 수집하였다. 지수평활 모형, ARIMA 모형과 LSTM기반의 딥러닝 모형을 구축한 후 MSE와 MAE 평가 지표를 사용하여 예측 오차를 비교·평가하였다. 평가 결과, 지수평활 모형으로 MSE 348.74, MAE 14.15 값이 산출되었다. ARIMA 모형으로 MSE 170.10, MAE 9.30 값을 얻었다. 그리고 딥러닝 모형으로 MSE 120.22, MAE 6.76 값이 산출되었다. 지수평활 모형의 값과 비교하여 ARIMA 모형의 MSE는 51%, MAE는 34% 감소하였다. 그리고 딥러닝 모형의 MSE는 66%, MAE는 52% 감소하여 딥러닝 모형의 오차가 가장 적은 것으로 파악되었다. 이러한 결과로부터 공공자전거 대여량 예측 분야에서 딥러닝 모형의 적용시 예측 오차를 크게 감소시킬 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.