• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.179-192
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• 2012

We find the solution minimizing the shortfall risk by using the Lagrange-multiplier method. The conventional duality method in the expected utility maximization problem is used and we get the same results as in the paper [21].

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.171-180
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• 2016

Basel committee suggests using Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) as a measurement for market risk. Various estimation methods of VaR and ES have been studied in the literature. This paper compares semi-parametric methods, such as conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) and conditional autoregressive expectile (CARE) methods, and a Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE)-based method through back-testing methods. We use unconditional coverage (UC) and conditional coverage (CC) tests for VaR, and a bootstrap test for ES to check the adequacy. A real data analysis is conducted for S&P 500 index and Hyundai Motor Co. stock price index data sets.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.625-636
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• 2013

In this paper we study four kernel machines for estimating expected shortfall, which are constructed through combinations of support vector quantile regression (SVQR), restricted SVQR (RSVQR), least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) and support vector expectile regression (SVER). These kernel machines have obvious advantages such that they achieve nonlinear model but they do not require the explicit form of nonlinear mapping function. Moreover they need no assumption about the underlying probability distribution of errors. Through numerical studies on two artificial an two real data sets we show their effectiveness on the estimation performance at various confidence levels.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1171-1180
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• 2014

We considered saddlepoint approximations to VaR (value at risk) and ES (expected shortfall) which frequently encountered in finance and insurance as the measures of risk management. In this paper we supposed univariate and multivariate skew-normal distributions, instead of traditional normal class distributions, as underlying distribution of linear portfolios. Simulation results are provided and showed the suggested saddlepoint approximations are very accurate than normal approximations.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.1503-1520
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• 2013

For multi-line insurance companies, allocating the risk capital to each line is a widely-accepted risk management exercise. In this article we consider several applications of the Euler capital allocation. First, we propose visual tools to present the diversification and the line-wise performance for a given loss portfolio so that the risk managers can understand the interactions among the lines. Secondly, on theoretical side, we prove that the Euler allocation is the directional derivative of the marginal or incremental allocation method, an alternative capital allocation rule in the literature. Lastly, we establish the equivalence between the mean-shortfall optimization and the RORAC optimization when the risk adjusted capital is the expected shortfall, and show how to construct the optimal insurance business mix that maximizes the portfolio RORAC. An actual loss sample of an insurance portfolio is used for numerical illustrations.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.327-347
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• 2020

We consider a credit portfolio with highly skewed exposures. In the portfolio, small number of obligors have very high exposures compared to the others. For the Bernoulli mixture model with highly skewed exposures, we propose a new importance sampling scheme to estimate the tail loss probability over a threshold and the corresponding expected shortfall. We stratify the sample space of the default events into two subsets. One consists of the events that the obligors with heavy exposures default simultaneously. We expect that typical tail loss events belong to the set. In our proposed scheme, the tail loss probability and the expected shortfall corresponding to this type of events are estimated by a conditional Monte Carlo, which results in variance reduction. We analyze the properties of the proposed scheme mathematically. In numerical study, the performance of the proposed scheme is compared with an existing importance sampling method.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.389-407
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• 2006

Extreme value theory has been used widely in many areas of science and engineering to deal with the assessment of extreme events which are rare but have catastrophic consequences. The potential of extreme value theory has only been recognized recently in finance area. In this paper, we provide an overview of extreme value theory for estimating and assessing value at risk and expected shortfall which are the methods for modelling and measuring the extreme financial risks. We illustrate that the approach based on extreme value theory is very useful for estimating tail related risk measures through backtesting of an empirical data.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.959-967
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• 2016

Distributional assumptions on equity returns play a key role in valuation theories for derivative securities. Elberlein and Keller (1995) investigated the distributional form of compound returns and found that some of standard assumptions can not be justified. Instead, Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) distribution fit the empirical returns with high accuracy. Hu and Kercheval (2007) also show that the normal distribution leads to VaR (Value at Risk) estimate that significantly underestimate the realized empirical values, while the GH distributions do not. We consider saddlepoint approximations to estimate the VaR and the ES (Expected Shortfall) which frequently encountered in finance and insurance as measures of risk management. We supposed GH distributions instead of normal ones, as underlying distribution of linear portfolios. Simulation results show the saddlepoint approximations are very accurate than normal ones.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.153-186
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• 2007

It is well known that the distributional properties of financial asset returns exhibit fatter-tails and skewer-mean than the assumption of normal distribution. The correct assumption of return distribution might improve the estimated performance of the Value-at-Risk(VaR) models in financial markets. In this paper, we estimate and compare the VaR performance using the RiskMetrics, GARCH and FIGARCH models based on the normal and skewed-Student-t distributions in two daily returns of the Korean Composite Stock Index(KOSPI) and Korean Won-US Dollar(KRW-USD) exchange rate. We also perform the expected shortfall to assess the size of expected loss in terms of the estimation of the empirical failure rate. From the results of empirical VaR analysis, it is found that the presence of long memory in the volatility of sample returns is not an important in estimating an accurate VaR performance. However, it is more important to consider a model with skewed-Student-t distribution innovation in determining better VaR. In short, the appropriate assumption of return distribution provides more accurate VaR models for the portfolio managers and investors.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.651-668
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• 2010

Various estimators of two risk measures of a specific financial portfolio, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, are compared for each case of 1-day and 10-day horizons. We use the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data of 20-year period including the year 2008 of the global financial crisis. Indexes of five foreign stock markets are also used for the empirical comparison study. The estimator considering both the heavy tail of loss distribution and the conditional heteroscedasticity of time series is of main concern, while other standard and new estimators are considered too. We investigate which estimator is best for the Korean stock market and which one shows the best overall performance.