• Title/Summary/Keyword: Event Study Analysis

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Construction of Event Tree & Fault Tree for Train Fire Risk Assessment (철도화재사고 위험도평가를 위한 Event Tree 및 Fault Tree 구성)

  • Kwak, Sang-Log;Wang, Jong-Bae;Lee, Bong-Seob;Park, Chan-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.530-535
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    • 2008
  • After train fire accident in Daegue, many research on train fire safety improvement have been carrying out. Since many alternative fire safety measures can be applied in our railway system, the effect of the each safety measure must be quantified prior to the safety investment. In order to estimate the effects of each safety measure quantitatively, fault trees and event trees are constructed in this study. Results can be applied for cost-benefit analysis or sensitivity analysis for safety measures in risk assessment process.

A Study of Data Mining Methodology for Effective Analysis of False Alarm Event on Mechanical Security System (기계경비시스템 오경보 이벤트 분석을 위한 데이터마이닝 기법 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Min;Choi, Kyong-Ho;Lee, Dong-Hwi
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study is to achieve the most optimal data mining for effective analysis of false alarm event on mechanical security system. To perform this, this study searches the cause of false alarm and suggests the data conversion and analysis methods to apply to several algorithm of WEKA, which is a data mining program, based on statistical data for the number of case on movement by false alarm, false alarm rate and cause of false alarm. Analysis methods are used to estimate false alarm and set more effective reaction for false alarm by applying several algorithm. To use the suitable data for effective analysis of false alarm event on mechanical security analysis this study uses Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, BayesNet Apriori and J48Tree algorithm, and applies the algorithm by deducting the highest value.

Metagenomic Analysis of Airborne Bacteria Community and Diversity in Gyeonggi-do, Korea, during March 2016, Asian Dust Event (2016년 한국 경기도의 3월 황사기간 동안 부유세균 군집과 다양성에 대한 메타지노믹 분석)

  • Jang, Jun Hyeong;Kim, Ji Hye;Bae, Kyung-seon;Kim, Jeong Myeong;Lee, Won seok;Chung, Hyen-mi;Park, Sangjung;Seo, Taegun
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.491-498
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    • 2017
  • Objective: Bacterial abundance and community compositions have been examined in Asian dust events, clarifying their impacts on public health. This study aims to determine the bacterial community compositions and viable bacteria in Asian dust particles in the Asian dust or non-Asian dust event of March 2016. Methods: The dust samples were collected using the high volume air sampler or high volume cascade impactor, and bacterial 16S rRNA genes were amplified using PCR, followed by pyrosequencing. Bacterial diversity index, richness estimate and community composition in the particles were analyzed from the sequencing data using Mothur software. Results: The results showed that the diversity and richness during Asian dust events were higher than them in non-Asian dust events. The total bacterial community analysis showed that at the phylum Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria and Firmicutes were the most dominant of Asian dust events and non-Asian dust events. In addition, the bacterial colony counts were higher during Asian dust event, comparing with non-Asian dust event. Conclusions: This study showed that bacterial community and richness of Asian dust samples was more complex and higher than non-Asian dust samples in Gyeonggi-do, Korea, which could affect public health and environment. Thus, the continuous monitoring of Asian dust could be an alternative for managing airborne bacteria.

Dynamic Response based Reliability Analysis of Structure with Passive Damper - Part 1: Assessment of Member Failure Probability (수동형 댐퍼를 장착한 구조물의 동적응답기반 신뢰성 해석 - 제1편: 부재별 파괴확률 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Min;Ok, Seung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2016
  • This study proposes a dynamic reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this dynamic reliability analysis, the failure event is defined as an event that the dynamic response of the structural system exceeds a displacement limit, whereas the conventional reliability analysis method has limitations that do not properly assess the actual time history response of the structure subjected to dynamic loads, such as earthquakes and high winds, by taking the static response into account in the failure event. In this first paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the member-level failure where the failure event of the structural member consists of the union set of time-sequential member failures during the earthquake excitations and the failure probability of the earthquake-excited structural member is computed using system reliability approach to consider the statistical dependence of member failures between the subsequent time points. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can present a reliable assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system in comparison with MCS method. The most important advantage of the proposed approach can provide us more accurate estimate of failure probability of the structural control system by using the actual time-history responses obtained by dynamic response analysis.

Probabilistic Analysis of Independent Storm Events: 2. Return Periods of Storm Events (독립호우사상의 확률론적 해석 : 2. 호우사상의 재현기간)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Park, Min-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2011
  • In this study, annual maximum storm events are evaluated by applying the bivariate extremal distribution. Rainfall quantiles of probabilistic storm event are calculated using OR case joint return period, AND case joint return period and interval conditional joint return period. The difference between each of three joint return periods was explained by the quadrant which shows probability calculation concept in the bivariate frequency analysis. Rainfall quantiles under AND case joint return periods are similar to rainfall depths in the univariate frequency analysis. The probabilistic storm events overcome the primary limitation of conventional univariate frequency analysis. The application of these storm event analysis provides a simple, statistically efficient means of characterizing frequency of extreme storm event.

Statistical Analysis of Recidivism Data Using Frailty Effect (프레일티를 이용한 재범 자료의 연구)

  • Kim, Yang-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.715-724
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    • 2010
  • Recurrent event data occurs when a subject experience the event of interest several times and has been found in biomedical studies, sociology and engineering. Several diverse approaches have been applied to analyze the recurrent events (Cook and Lawless, 2007). In this study, we analyzed the YTOP(Young Traffic Offenders Program) dataset which consists of 192 drivers with conviction dates by speeding violation and traffic rule violation. We consider a subject-specific effect, frailty, to reflect the individual's driving behavior and extend to time-varying frailty effect. Another feature of this study is about the redefinition of risk set. During the study, subject may be under suspension and this period is regarded as non-risk period. Thus the risk variables are reformatted according to suspension and termination time.

The Effect of Event Program Image of Theme Park on the Visitors' Satisfaction & Revisit Intention (테마파크 이벤트프로그램 이미지가 방문객 만족과 재방문의사에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Si-Joong
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.154-166
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    • 2010
  • This research examines the effect on how the recognizing and emotional image influence on the visitors satisfaction and revisit intention. For this study, actual proofs analysis was conducted on the O-World visitors in Daejeon. The analysis results are as following. First, according to the analysis results about the influence on the whole image of recognizing image factor of event program, three factors have an effect on the whole image of the theme park: 'Atmosphere-service' factor, 'convenience facility - circumstance' factor, and 'event content' factor. Second, three of emotional image factors of event program have an impact on the whole image of the theme park: 'Interest' factor, 'experience' factor, and 'psychology' factor. In conclusion, the whole image of the theme park has an influence on the whole satisfaction and the whole satisfaction affects the revisit intention positively.

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Model Construction of Perceived Uncertainty in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients (류마티스 관절염 환자가 지각하는 불확실성에 관한 모형 구축)

  • Yoo, Kyung-Hee;Lee, Eun-Ok
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.7-25
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    • 1998
  • Rheumatoid arthritis, unlike other chronic diseases, causes the patients to experience uncertainty in their daily lives and thus to feel threat on their emotional comfort because of inconsistent and unpredictable symptoms such as pain. Therefore, a theoretical framework is needed for explanation of uncertainty in patients having rheumatoid arthritis. A hypothetical model was constructed on the basis of Mishel's Uncertainty Theory and other literature review. The model included 9 theoretical concepts and 19 paths. Subjects of the study constituted 330 partients who visited outpatient clinics of two university hospitals and one general hospital in Seoul. Self report questionnaires were used to measure the variables affecting uncertainty. Reliability coefficients of these instruments were found Cronbach's Alpha=$.70{\sim}.94$. In data analysis, SAS program and PC-LISREL 8.03 computer program were utilized for descriptive statistics and covariance structure analysis. The results of covariance structure analysis for model fitness were as follows : 1) Hypothetical model showed a good fit to the empirical data : Chi-square($X^2$)=41.81 (df=11, P=.000), Goodness of Fit Index=.974, Root Mean Square Residual=.049, Normed Fit Index=.928, Non Normed Fit Index=.814. 2) For the validity and the parcimony of model, a modified model was constructed by appending 2 paths and deleting 5 paths according to the criteria of statistical significance and meaningfulness. 3) The results of hypothesis testing were as follows : (1) Educational level, event familiarity and severity of illness had a direct effect on uncertainty : Event congruency had both direct and indirect effect on uncertainty : Credible authority and symptom consistency had a nonsignificant direct effect on uncertainty, (2) Illness duration, symptom consistency, and event congruency had a direct effect on severity of illness ; Credible authority had a both direct and indirect effect on severity of illness ; Event congruency had the greatest effect on severity of illness, and event familiarity had a nonsignificant direct effect on severity of illness.

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Characteristics Analyses of Timely Rainfall Events Above Probability Precipitation on Each Frequency (빈도별 확률강우량을 초과하는 시간강우사상의 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Tae Suk;Kim, Eun Cheol;Moon, Young-Il;Ahn, Jae Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.6B
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    • pp.513-526
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    • 2009
  • The flood control countermeasure establish for reducing of the flood damages. Design frequency usually reflects the current situation of the station, the importance and the design rainfall. Therefore, this study calculated frequency for duration maximum rainfall with the area which happened the flood damages by main heavy rainfall events recently. Also, to analyze for the temporal characteristics of rainfall event exceed by design rainfall, excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event calculated. To grasp the temporal variation, About excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event have analyzed by change and trend test. Also, rainfall observatory did grouping by cluster analysis using position of rainfall observatory and characteristic timely rainfall. For the grouping rainfall observatory by the cluster analysis calculated average of excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event. To compare for the temporal characteristics, the change and trend test had analyzed about excess rainfall, excess frequency by regional groups.

Study on the Improvement of Event Data Recorders through Accident Analysis (사고분석 사례를 통한 사고기록장치 개선방안에 대한 고찰)

  • Park, Giok;Kang, Heejin;Jun, Joonho;Kim, Heejune
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.66-72
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    • 2021
  • This study was initiated to improve of the defect investigation method using event data recorders (EDR) and suggested a solution through the regulation and system analysis of EDR. The EDR data has been used for various purposes such as the vehicle defect investigation and the traffic accident investigation. However the EDR regulation has not been updated since the implementation in 2012. "Trigger Threshold" can be used to analyze a single accident such as the frontal crash, the side crash, and the rollover. In the case of a complex accident in which a rollover accident and a crash accident occur simultaneously, it is difficult to analyze a complex accident due to current "Trigger Threshold". This study proposed the method of separating the "Trigger Threshold" into a crash accident and a rollover accident so that accidents can be analyzed using the EDR data even when a complex accident occurs. In addition, it proposed the improvement method to quickly use the data of EDR in accident reconstruction software.