• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evaluation scenario

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Development of Grid based Inundation Analysis Model (GIAM) (격자기반 침수해석모델(GIAM) 개발)

  • Lee, Byong Ju;Yoon, Seong Sim
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2017
  • Population congestion and increasing porosity caused by urbanization and increasing rainfall intensity are the main reasons for urban inundation damage. In order to reduce the damage to urban flooding, it is necessary to take a inundation analysis model that can be considered the topographic impact (i.e., building and road) and simulate the detailed inundation areas. In this study, Grid based Inundation Analysis Model (GIAM) is developed using a two-dimensional shallow water equations. The study area is Gangnam basin, with a surface area of $7.4km^2$, which includes 5 drainage areas such as Nonhyun, Yeoksam, Seocho 1, 2, and 3. EPA SWMM5 is used for simulating the overflows at each manhole. GIAM model is constructed to allow for simulating a inundation area with 6 m grid size. The inundation analysis is conducted in two heavy rainfall events (Sep. 21, 2010 and July 27, 2011) for the model evaluation. The accuracy of the simulated inundation area is calculated 0.61 and 0.57 at POD index using the historical flooded area report. The developed model will be used as a tool for analyzing the flood prone areas based on rainfall scenario, and a tool for predicting the detailed inundation area in the real-time.

A study on the evaluation of fire safety according to the ventilation mode in a train fire at the subway platform (지하철 승강장에서 열차 화재시 제연모드에 따른 화재 안전성 평가 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Lee, Hu-Young
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.293-310
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to present the most effective smoke exhaust mode by comparing the quantitatively evaluated risks according to the smoke exhaust mode when a train fire occurs in a subway platform. Therefore, applying the typical subway platform as a model, train fire scenarios are developed with the evacuation start time and location of the fire train for each exhaust mode. The fire accident rates (F) are calculated and the number of fatalities (N) was quantitatively estimated by fire analysis and evacuation analysis for each scenario. In addition, the F/N curve compared with the social risk assessment criteria and the following conclusions were obtained. In the event of a train fire at the subway station platform, the evacuation must start up within 600 s in maximum to ensure the evacuees' safety. To secure evacuation safety, it is advantageous to operate the HVAC system of the platform in the air-supply mode at station without TVF. Comparing the F/N curve for each exhaust mode with the social risk criteria, it turned out that the risk significantly exceeds the social risk criteria in case of no mechanical ventilation. As a result, this paper shows that the ventilation mode in which TVF are exhausted and HVAC system is operated in the pressurized mode are the most effective smoke exhaust mode for ensuring evacuation safety.

Contact forces generated by fallen debris

  • Sun, Jing;Lam, Nelson;Zhang, Lihai;Gad, Emad;Ruan, Dong
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.589-603
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    • 2014
  • Expressions for determining the value of the impact force as reported in the literature and incorporated into code provisions are essentially quasi-static forces for emulating deflection. Quasi-static forces are not to be confused with contact force which is generated in the vicinity of the point of contact between the impactor and target, and contact force is responsible for damage featuring perforation and denting. The distinction between the two types of forces in the context of impact actions is not widely understood and few guidelines have been developed for their estimation. The value of the contact force can be many times higher than that of the quasi-static force and lasts for a matter of a few milli-seconds whereas the deflection of the target can evolve over a much longer time span. The stiffer the impactor the shorter the period of time to deliver the impulsive action onto the target and consequently the higher the peak value of the contact force. This phenomenon is not taken into account by any contemporary codified method of modelling impact actions which are mostly based on the considerations of momentum and energy principles. Computer software such as LS-DYNA has the capability of predicting contact force but the dynamic stiffness parameters of the impactor material which is required for input into the program has not been documented for debris materials. The alternative, direct, approach for an accurate evaluation of the damage potential of an impact scenario is by physical experimentation. However, it can be difficult to extrapolate observations from laboratory testings to behaviour in real scenarios when the underlying principles have not been established. Contact force is also difficult to measure. Thus, the amount of useful information that can be retrieved from isolated impact experiments to guide design and to quantify risk is very limited. In this paper, practical methods for estimating the amount of contact force that can be generated by the impact of a fallen debris object are introduced along with the governing principles. An experimental-calibration procedure forming part of the assessment procedure has also been verified.

Quantitative Risk Analysis for Railway Tunnels (철도터널 화재에 대한 정량적 위험도 분석)

  • Park, Jung Hyun;Shim, Cha Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.400-412
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    • 2017
  • What is particularly noteworthy from Korean and foreign railway tunnel disaster prevention standards is that for the sake of rapid evacuation, more stringent standards for provision of evacuation passages, which require high cost, are being applied. Korean standards stipulate that passage installation should be determined in accordance with the level of risk through a QRA analysis of each tunnel with 1km or longer length. As, however, detailed application criteria as fire occurrence probability, fire occurrence scenario, size of fires and evaluation criteria for level of social risk are not available, additional costs may be incurred due to excessive design. Thus, standards of an appropriate level need to be established. With this backdrop, this study selects detailed application conditions of a reasonable and appropriate level through a study and analysis of relevant documents and analyzes the maximum length of tunnels to which the application of evacuation passages, or the application major evacuation promotion facilities, can be relaxed, together with a QRA analysis of model tunnels (for high speed rail) with different tunnel lengths. In addition, the QRA results on tunnels, including those on the Honam high-speed rail, and analysis results for the model tunnels, are compiled, ; the ultimate results are compared with Korean and other countries' standards related to evacuation promotion facilities, As a result, The appropriateness of application standards are reviewed. These results are expected to be utilized as basic material for establishing a reasonable disaster prevention plan that will consider safety and economies.

GIS-based Network Analysis for the Understanding of Aggregate Resources Supply-demand and Distribution in 2018 (GIS 네트워크 분석을 이용한 2018년 골재의 수요-공급과 유통 해석)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Hong, Sei Sun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.515-533
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    • 2021
  • Based on the supply location, demand location, and transportation network, aggregate supply-demand characteristics and aggregate distribution status were analyzed from the results of the closest distance, service areas, and location-allocation scenarios using GIS network analysis. As a result, it was found that the average transport distance of aggregates from the supplier was 6 km on average, the average range of 7 km for sand, and 10 km for gravel was found to reach the destination. In particular, the simulated service area covers about 92% in Seoul-Gyeonggi Province, 85% in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam Province, and more than 90% in Daejeon-Sejong-Chungnam Province. These results have a significant implication in quantitatively interpreting primary data on aggregate supply-demand. Furthermore, these results suggest the possibility of a wide-area quantitative analysis of aggregate supply regions necessary for establishing a basic aggregate plan. The results also evaluated by the site-allocation scenario show that aggregate supply may be possible through companies less than 200 with large-amounts quarries, which is the 700 companies currently supplying small amounts of aggregates on the country. Therefore, in terms of distribution of aggregates, a policy approach is needed to form an appropriate market for regions with high and low density of aggregate supply services, and the necessity of regional distribution and re-evaluation is suggested through an aggregate supply analysis demand across the country. Furthermore, in analyzing the supply-demand network for the aggregate market, additional research is needed to establish long-term policies for the aggregate industry and related industries.

Suggestion and Evaluation for Prediction Method of Landslide Occurrence using SWAT Model and Climate Change Data: Case Study of Jungsan-ri Region in Mt. Jiri National Park (SWAT model과 기후변화 자료를 이용한 산사태 예측 기법 제안과 평가: 지리산 국립공원 중산리 일대 사례연구)

  • Kim, Jisu;Kim, Minseok;Cho, Youngchan;Oh, Hyunjoo;Lee, Choonoh
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.106-117
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R2 was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R2 was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.

The Proposal of Evaluation Method for Local Government Infrastructure Vulnerability Relating to Climate Change Driven Flood (기후변화에 따른 홍수에 대한 지자체 기반시설 취약성 평가 방법 제시)

  • Han, Woo Suk;Sim, Ou Bae;Lee, Byoung Jae;Yoo, Jae Hwan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.25-37
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    • 2012
  • This research proposes the direction for the assessment of local government infrastructure vulnerabilities relating to climate change driven flood and analyzes the assessment result. In this research, the local government infrastructures are evaluated by three indices such as exposure, infrastructure sensitivity, adaptive capacity and each index is calculated by selected alternative variable. Climate change scenario(A1B) developed on National Institute of Environmental Research is used to calculate present and future(2020, 2050, 2100s) exposure. As the result of infrastructure vulnerability assessment on present, the infrastructures in Seoul, Northern Gyeonggi-do, Gangwon-do, coastal area of Gyeongsangnam-do are vulnerable to flooding. For future, although the spatial pattern of flooding vulnerable infrastructure are similar, the flooding vulnerabilities of infrastructure in Gyeonggido and Ganwon-do would be increased as close to 2100s. It is expected that this research can be utilized as the preliminary analysis for climate change adaptation in local government infrastructure because this research propose the method for the assessment of local government infrastructure vulnerability relating to climate change driven flood and the result such as a trend of infrastructure vulnerability to flooding and the level of contribution of each index and alternative variable.

A Study on Simulation Based Fault Injection Test Scenario and Safety Measure Time of Autonomous Vehicle Using STPA (STPA를 활용한 자율주행자동차의 시뮬레이션 기반 오류 주입 시나리오 및 안전조치 시간 연구)

  • Ahn, Dae-ryong;Shin, Seong-geun;Baek, Yun-soek;Lee, Hyuck-kee;Park, Ki-hong;Choi, In-seong
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.129-143
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    • 2019
  • As the importance of autonomous vehicle safety is emphasized, the application of ISO-26262, a development verification guideline for improving safety and reliability, and the safety verification of autonomous vehicles are becoming increasingly important, in particular, SAE standard level 3 or higher level autonomous vehicles detect and decision the surrounding environment instead of the human driver. Therefore, if there is and failure or malfunction in the autonomous driving function, safety may be seriously affected. So autonomous vehicles, it is essential to apply and verity the safety concept against failure and malfunctions. In this study, we study the fault injection scenarios for safety evaluation and verification of autonomous vehicles using ISO-26262 part3 process and STPA were studied and safety measures for safety concept design were studied through simulation bases fault injection test.

Design and Analysis of a Scenario for Evaluating Application Service Performance of a Hybrid V2X Communication System (하이브리드 V2X 통신시스템의 응용서비스 성능 평가를 위한 시나리오 설계 및 분석 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Hun;Lee, Chang-Kyo;Byun, Sang-Bong;Cho, Soo-Hyun;Cho, Hyun-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.423-430
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    • 2019
  • The convergence of the automotive industry and the ICT technology can be broadly divided into the commercial service sector and the Cooperative-ITS (C-ITS) service sector. The C-ITS service sector is using V2X communication technology as a field that aims to provide safer transportation, more green and efficient transportation, and more predictable and productive mobility. The recent convergence of self-driving cars and connected cars requires high data rates, low transmission delays, and low transmission error rates. Interest in comparison of performance between WAVE and C-V2X (LTE-V2X, 5G-V2X) has been amplified and application services by communication technology are being studied. In this paper, we design the application performance evaluation method of Hybrid V2X communication system and confirm that the decrease of packet error rate (PER) performance is caused by the increase of communication distance, not the vehicle speed.

Application of Integrated Modelling Framework Consisted of Delft3D and HABITAT for Habitat Suitability Assessment (생물서식지 적합성 평가를 위한 Delft3D와 HABITAT 모델의 연계 적용)

  • Lim, Hyejung;Na, Eun Hye;Jeon, Hyeong Cheol;Song, Hojin;Yoo, Hojun;Hwang, Soon Hong;Ryu, Hui-Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.217-228
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    • 2021
  • This paper discusses a methodology where an integrated modelling framework is used to quantify the risk derived from anthropic activities on habitats and species. To achieve this purpose, a tool comprising the Delft3D and HABITAT model, was applied in the Yeongsan river. Delft3D effectively simulated the operational condition and flow of weirs in river. In accuracy evaluation of the Delft3D-FLOW, the Bias, Pbias, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Index of Agreement (IOA) were used, and the result was evaluated as grade above 'Satisfactory'. The HABITAT calculated Habitat Suitability Value (HSV) for the following eight species: mammal, fish, aquatic plant, and benthic macroinvertebrate. An Area was defined as a suitable habitat if the HSV was larger than 0.5. HABITAT was judged accurately by measuring the Correct Classification rate (CCR) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). For benthic macroinvertebrate, the CCR and AUC were 77% and 0.834, respectively, at thresholds of 0.017 and 4 inds/m2 for HSV and individuals per unit area. This meant that the HABITAT model accurately predicted the appearance of the benthic macroinvertebrates by approximately 77% and that the probability of false alarms was also very low. As a result of evaluating the suitability of habitats, in the Yeongsan river, if the annual "lowest level" (Seungchon weir: 2.5 EL.m/ Juksan weir: -1.35 EL.m) was maintained, the average habitat improvement effect of 6.5%P compared to the 'reference' scenario was predicted. Consequently, it was demonstrated that the integrated modelling framework for habitat suitability assessment is able to support the remedy aquatic ecological management.