• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimating

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A Machine Learning-based Total Production Time Prediction Method for Customized-Manufacturing Companies (주문생산 기업을 위한 기계학습 기반 총생산시간 예측 기법)

  • Park, Do-Myung;Choi, HyungRim;Park, Byung-Kwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.177-190
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    • 2021
  • Due to the development of the fourth industrial revolution technology, efforts are being made to improve areas that humans cannot handle by utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as machine learning. Although on-demand production companies also want to reduce corporate risks such as delays in delivery by predicting total production time for orders, they are having difficulty predicting this because the total production time is all different for each order. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) theory was developed to find the least efficient areas to increase order throughput and reduce order total cost, but failed to provide a forecast of total production time. Order production varies from order to order due to various customer needs, so the total production time of individual orders can be measured postmortem, but it is difficult to predict in advance. The total measured production time of existing orders is also different, which has limitations that cannot be used as standard time. As a result, experienced managers rely on persimmons rather than on the use of the system, while inexperienced managers use simple management indicators (e.g., 60 days total production time for raw materials, 90 days total production time for steel plates, etc.). Too fast work instructions based on imperfections or indicators cause congestion, which leads to productivity degradation, and too late leads to increased production costs or failure to meet delivery dates due to emergency processing. Failure to meet the deadline will result in compensation for delayed compensation or adversely affect business and collection sectors. In this study, to address these problems, an entity that operates an order production system seeks to find a machine learning model that estimates the total production time of new orders. It uses orders, production, and process performance for materials used for machine learning. We compared and analyzed OLS, GLM Gamma, Extra Trees, and Random Forest algorithms as the best algorithms for estimating total production time and present the results.

Estimation of irrigation return flow from paddy fields on agricultural watersheds (농업유역의 논 관개 회귀수량 추정)

  • Kim, Ha-Young;Nam, Won-Ho;Mun, Young-Sik;An, Hyun-Uk;Kim, Jonggun;Shin, Yongchul;Do, Jong-Won;Lee, Kwang-Ya
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2022
  • Irrigation water supplied to the paddy field is consumed in the amount of evapotranspiration, underground infiltration, and natural and artificial drainage from the paddy field. Irrigation return flow is defined as the excess of irrigation water that is not consumed by evapotranspiration and crop, and which returns to an aquifer by infiltration or drainage. The research on estimating the return flow play an important part in water circulation management of agricultural watershed. However, the return flow rate calculations are needs because the result of calculating return flow is different depending on irrigation channel water loss, analysis methods, and local characteristics. In this study, the irrigation return flow rate of agricultural watershed was estimated using the monitoring and SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) modeling from 2017 to 2020 for the Heungeop reservoir located in Wonju, Gangwon-do. SWMM modeling was performed by weather data and observation data, water of supply and drainage were estimated as the result of SWMM model analysis. The applicability of the SWMM model was verified using RMSE and R-square values. The result of analysis from 2017 to 2020, the average annual quick return flow rate was 53.1%. Based on these results, the analysis of water circulation characteristics can perform, it can be provided as basic data for integrated water management.

A Diachronic Study on Historical and Cultural Landscape of Songhyeon-dong, Seoul (서울 송현동(松峴洞) 일원 역사문화경관의 통시적 연구)

  • Kang, Jae-Ung;So, Hyun-Su
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.85-98
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    • 2021
  • In accordance with planning to construct culture park on Songhyeon-dong (district) near Gyeongbokgung Palace, This study analyzed literature and drawings from the early Joseon Dynasty to today for the district, known as 'Songhyeon (pine hill)' to identify historical and cultural landscapes during essential times. The following are the results; First, the owners of significant lots were identified, and land use and landscape components were extracted for a diachronic examination of the landscape of the whole area of Songhyeon-dong. Songhyeon district had been regarded as the 'Inner Blue Dragon (Spot) of Gyeongbokgung Palace' in terms of geomancy since the foundation of Joseon in 1392 in that the government created and managed a 'pine forest' in the district. A state warehouse called 'bungam' was constructed, and small fruit stores, 'ujeon,' opened due to the complete reformation and urban planning led by King Taejong in 1410. From the 19th century, mansions of the upper class, such as 'Gaseonggak', 'Changnyeongwuigung' and 'Byeoksugeosajeong' were in the district. A prominent official residential complex called 'Sigeun Sataek' was constructed in 1919 after Chosen Siksan Bank purchased the site. Later, it was transferred to America in 1948 and used as the 'US Embassy Staff Quarters'. Second, the changes in the site view, associated with the aspects of society by the times, were examined by estimating the location and the time the landscape components lasted in each period extracted and identifying the physical entity. The pine forest, regarded as the 'Inner Blue Dragon' that guards the left side of the palace within the geomantic world view, was located in the highlands in the west of the site. In the same period, the flat area in the east was regarded as the 'commoner's district', the streets adjacent to various government facilities and the market, packed with people from different walks of life. From the 19th century, the gardens of the aristocrats of the capital city were created in the pine forest, turning the place into the forest in the middle of the city. The whole area of Songhyeon-dong, which existed as a large lot in the city center for a long time, was developed by Japanese imperialists in the 20th century based on the concept of 'Ideal Healthy Land,' which interrupted the placeness of Songhyeon-dong that had adhered to the traditional geomatic view of the Joseon Dynasty.

BVOCs Estimates Using MEGAN in South Korea: A Case Study of June in 2012 (MEGAN을 이용한 국내 BVOCs 배출량 산정: 2012년 6월 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Kyeongsu;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.48-61
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    • 2022
  • South Korea is quite vegetation rich country which has 63% forests and 16% cropland area. Massive NOx emissions from megacities, therefore, are easily combined with BVOCs emitted from the forest and cropland area, then produce high ozone concentration. BVOCs emissions have been estimated using well-known emission models, such as BEIS (Biogenic Emission Inventory System) or MEGAN (Model of Emission of Gases and Aerosol from Nature) which were developed using non-Korean emission factors. In this study, we ran MEGAN v2.1 model to estimate BVO Cs emissions in Korea. The MO DIS Land Cover and LAI (Leaf Area Index) products over Korea were used to run the MEGAN model for June 2012. Isoprene and Monoterpenes emissions from the model were inter-compared against the enclosure chamber measurements from Taehwa research forest in Korea, during June 11 and 12, 2012. For estimating emission from the enclosed chamber measurement data. The initial results show that isoprene emissions from the MEGAN model were up to 6.4 times higher than those from the enclosure chamber measurement. Monoterpenes from enclosure chamber measurement were up to 5.6 times higher than MEGAN emission. The differences between two datasets, however, were much smaller during the time of high emissions. More inter-comparison results and the possibilities of improving the MEGAN modeling performance using local measurement data over Korea will be presented and discussed.

Comparisons of Soil Water Retention Characteristics and FDR Sensor Calibration of Field Soils in Korean Orchards (노지 과수원 토성별 수분보유 특성 및 FDR 센서 보정계수 비교)

  • Lee, Kiram;Kim, Jongkyun;Lee, Jaebeom;Kim, Jongyun
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.401-408
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    • 2022
  • As research on a controlled environment system based on crop growth environment sensing for sustainable production of horticultural crops and its industrial use has been important, research on how to properly utilize soil moisture sensors for outdoor cultivation is being actively conducted. This experiment was conducted to suggest the proper method of utilizing the TEROS 12, an FDR (frequency domain reflectometry) sensor, which is frequently used in industry and research fields, for each orchard soil in three regions in Korea. We collected soils from each orchard where fruit trees were grown, investigated the soil characteristics and soil water retention curve, and compared TEROS 12 sensor calibration equations to correlate the sensor output to the corresponding soil volumetric water content through linear and cubic regressions for each soil sample. The estimated value from the calibration equation provided by the manufacturer was also compared. The soil collected from all three orchards showed different soil characteristics and volumetric water content values by each soil water retention level across the soil samples. In addition, the cubic calibration equation for TEROS 12 sensor showed the highest coefficient of determination higher than 0.95, and the lowest RMSE for all soil samples. When estimating volumetric water contents from TEROS 12 sensor output using the calibration equation provided by the manufacturer, their calculated volumetric water contents were lower than the actual volumetric water contents, with the difference up to 0.09-0.17 m3·m-3 depending on the soil samples, indicating an appropriate calibration for each soil should be preceded before FDR sensor utilization. Also, there was a difference in the range of soil volumetric water content corresponding to the soil water retention levels across the soil samples, suggesting that the soil water retention information should be required to properly interpret the volumetric water content value of the soil. Moreover, soil with a high content of sand had a relatively narrow range of volumetric water contents for irrigation, thus reducing the accuracy of an FDR sensor measurement. In conclusion, analyzing soil water retention characteristics of the target soil and the soil-specific calibration would be necessary to properly quantify the soil water status and determine their adequate irrigation point using an FDR sensor.

A Study on Environmental Impact Assessment Guidelines for Marine Environments in Harbor Construction Projects (항만건설사업의 해양환경 환경영향평가 가이드라인 개발 연구)

  • Maeng, Junho;Kim, Taeyun;Lee, Haemi
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.141-160
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    • 2022
  • The harbor construction projects can lead to various marine environmental problems including habitat degradation and loss, marine water pollution, change of flow patterns, erosion, scour, sedimentation, and so on. The EIA is a measure to prevent various environmental problems in advance from examining and minimizing the environmental impacts before the proposed developments are implemented. In addition, institutions reviewing EIA reports have made efforts to conduct scientific and standardized EIA by applying EIA guidelines for each project. This study aims to create a EIA guideline focusing on the harbor construction projects. Based on the review comments of the harbor construction EIA reports for the past 13 years (2009-2021) and the EIA guidelines of different types of projects, we identified the marine environmental problems and provided the appropriate guideline. This guideline summarizes and presents the contents which must be reviewed in the baseline condition survey, impact assessment, mitigation, and post-environmental impact investigation in the fields of marine fauna and flora, marine physics, and marine water and sediment quality. In the case of a baseline condition survey of marine fauna and flora, a method for selecting survey points considering the characteristics of sea area and project was presented. When estimating the impact of marine fauna and flora, we presented methods for predicting the impact on them due to the spread of suspended sediments and the damage to benthic habitats due to dredging and reclamation. In consideration of the characteristics of the sea area, we divided the survey items of the marine physics into essential items and supplementary items. In predicting the impact of marine physics, various methods for major issues such as seawater circulation, suspended sediment and bottom sediment transport, water temperature and salinity diffusion, seawater exchange, wave transformation, harbor tranquility, and shoreline change were presented. The research results will contribute to protect the marine environment by inducing more systematic and scientific surveys, impact assessments, and mitigation in the EIA process.

Estimating design floods based on bivariate rainfall frequency analysis and rainfall-runoff model (이변량 강우 빈도분석과 강우-유출 모형에 기반한 설계 홍수량 산정 방안)

  • Kim, Min Ji;Park, Kyung Woon;Kim, Seok-Woo;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.737-748
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    • 2022
  • Due to the lack of flood data, the water engineering practice calculates the design flood using rainfall frequency analysis and rainfall-runoff model. However, the rainfall frequency analysis for arbitrary duration does not reflect the regional characteristics of the duration and amount of storm event. This study proposed a practical method to calculate the design flood in a watershed considering the characteristics of storm event, based on the bivariate rainfall frequency analysis. After extracting independent storm events for the Pyeongchang River basin and the upper Namhangang River basin, we performed the bivariate rainfall frequency analysis to determine the design storm events of various return periods, and calculated the design floods using the HEC-1 model. We compared the design floods based on the bivariate rainfall frequency analysis (DF_BRFA) with those estimated by the flood frequency analysis (DF_FFA), and those estimated by the HEC-1 with the univariate rainfall frequency analysis (DF_URFA). In the case of the Pyeongchang River basin, except for the 100-year flood, the average error of the DF_BRFA was 11.6%, which was the closest to the DF_FFA. In the case of the Namhangang River basin, the average error of the DF_BRFA was about 10%, which was the most similar to the DF_FFA. As the return period increased, the DF_URFA was calculated to be much larger than the DF_FFA, whereas the BRFA produced smaller average error in the design flood than the URFA. When the proposed method is used to calculate design flood in an ungauged watershed, it is expected that the estimated design flood might be close to the actual DF_FFA. Thus, the design of the hydrological structures and water resource plans can be carried out economically and reasonably.

Estimation of ecological flow and fish habitats for Andong Dam downstream reach using 1-D and 2-D physical habitat models (1차원 및 2차원 물리서식처 모형을 활용한 안동댐 하류 하천의 환경생태유량 및 어류서식처 추정)

  • Kim, Yongwon;Lee, Jiwan;Woo, Soyoung;Kim, Soohong;Lee, Jongjin;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.1041-1052
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    • 2022
  • This study is to estimate the optimal ecological flow and analysis the spatial distribution of fish habitat for Andong dam downstream reach (4,565.7 km2) using PHABSIM (Physical Habiat Simulation System) and River2D. To establish habitat models, the cross-section informations and hydraulic input data were collected uisng the Nakdong river basic plan report. The establishment range of PHABSIM was set up about 410.0 m from Gudam streamflow gauging station (GD) and about 6.0 km including GD for River2D. To select representative fish species and construct HSI (Habitat Suitability Index), the fish survey was performed at Pungji bridge where showed well the physical characteristics of target stream located downstream of GD. As a result of the fish survey, Zacco platypus was showed highly relative abundance resulting in selecting as the representative fish species, and HSI was constructed using physical habitat characteristics of the Zacco platypus. The optimal range of HSI was 0.3~0.5 m/s at the velocity suitability index, 0.4~0.6 m at the depth suitability index, and the substrate was sand to fine gravel. As a result of estimating the optimal ecological flow by applying HSI to PHABSIM, the optimal ecological flow for target stream was 20.0 m3/sec. As a result of analysis two-dimensional spatial analysis of fish habitat using River2D, WUA (Weighted Usable Area) was estimated 107,392.0 m2/1000 m under the ecological flow condition and it showed the fish habitat was secured throughout the target stream compared with Q355 condition.

Estimating the water supply capacity of Hwacheon reservoir for multi-purpose utilization (다목적 활용을 위한 화천댐 용수공급능력 평가 연구)

  • Lee, Eunkyung;Lee, Seonmi;Ji, Jungwon;Yi, Jaeeung;Jung, Soonchan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.437-446
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    • 2022
  • In April 2020, the Korean government decided to operate the Hwacheon reservoir, a hydropower reservoir to supply water, and it is currently under pilot operation. Through the pilot operation, the Hwacheon reservoir is the first among the hydropower reservoirs in Korea to make a constant release for downstream water supply. In this study, the water supply capacity of the Hwacheon reservoir was estimated using the inflow data of the Hwacheon reservoir. A simulation model was developed to calculate the water supply that satisfies both the monthly water supply reliability of 95% and the annual water supply reliability of 95%. An optimization model was also developed to evaluate the water supply capacity of the Hwacheon reservoir. The inflow data used as input data for the model was modified in two ways in consideration of the impact of the Imnam reservoir. Calculating the water supply for the Hwacheon reservoir using the two modified inflows is as follows. The water supply that satisfies 95% of the monthly water supply reliability is 26.9 m3/sec and 24.1 m3/sec. And the water supply that satisfies 95% of the annual water supply reliability is 23.9 m3/sec and 22.2 m3/sec. Hwacheon reservoir has a maximum annual water supply of 777 MCM (Million Cubic Meter) without failure in the water supply. The Hwacheon reservoir can supply 704 MCM of water per year, considering the past monthly power generation and discharge patterns. If the Hwacheon reservoir performs a routine operation utilizing its water supply capacity, it can contribute to stabilizing the water supply during dry seasons in the Han River Basin.

Carbon Stocks in Tree Biomass and Soils of Quercus acutissima, Q. mongolica, Q. serrata, and Q. variabilis stands (상수리나무, 신갈나무, 졸참나무, 굴참나무 임분의 임목 바이오매스와 토양 탄소 저장량)

  • Lee, Sang Tae;Chung, Sang Hoon;Kim, Choonsig
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.3
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    • pp.365-373
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    • 2022
  • We compared carbon stocks in tree biomass and soils of Quercus acutissima, Q. mongolica, Q. serrata, and Q. variabilis stands. A total of 531 plots (Q. acutissima: 110 plots, Q. mongolica: 177 plots, Q. serrata: 96 plots, Q. variabilis: 148 plots) were examined between 2016 and 2021 to determine the tree biomass and soil carbon stocks throughout the country. The carbon stocks of tree biomass were significantly higher in Q. mongolica (mean stand age, 57 years, 144.9 Mg C ha-1) than in Q. variabilis (mean stand age, 43 years, 123.7 Mg C ha-1), Q. serrata (mean stand age, 43 years, 120.1 Mg C ha-1), and Q. acutissima (mean stand age, 36 years, 113.2 Mg C ha-1) stands. The soil carbon concentration was significantly higher in Q. mongolica (A: 43.1 mg C g-1) than in Q. serrata (31.0 mg C g-1), Q. variabilis (25.31 mg C g-1), and Q. acutissima (24.4 mg C g-1) stands. The soil carbon stocks were significantly higher in Q. mongolica (116.8 Mg C ha-1) than in Q. acutissima (49.3 Mg C ha-1) stands. Total carbon stocks of tree biomass and soil were highest in Q. mongolica (262 Mg C ha-1), followed by Q. serrata (218 Mg C ha-1), Q. variabilis (211 Mg C ha-1), and Q. acutissima (163 Mg C ha-1) stands. Multiple linear regressions were performed to estimate the total carbon stocks of the four Quercus spp., and results showed that total carbon stocks increased with increasing elevation, mean diameter at breast height, and basal areas. Basal area and elevation of Quercus spp. stands were important explanatory variables based on multiple linear regressions for estimating carbon stocks.