• Title/Summary/Keyword: Empirical Bayesian

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Constrained Bayes and Empirical Bayes Estimator Applications in Insurance Pricing

  • Kim, Myung Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.321-327
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    • 2013
  • Bayesian and empirical Bayesian methods have become quite popular in the theory and practice of statistics. However, the objective is to often produce an ensemble of parameter estimates as well as to produce the histogram of the estimates. For example, in insurance pricing, the accurate point estimates of risk for each group is necessary and also proper dispersion estimation should be considered. Well-known Bayes estimates (which is the posterior means under quadratic loss) are underdispersed as an estimate of the histogram of parameters. The adjustment of Bayes estimates to correct this problem is known as constrained Bayes estimators, which are matching the first two empirical moments. In this paper, we propose a way to apply the constrained Bayes estimators in insurance pricing, which is required to estimate accurately both location and dispersion. Also, the benefit of the constrained Bayes estimates will be discussed by analyzing real insurance accident data.

Analysis of the Frailty Model with Many Ties (동측치가 많은 FRAILTY 모형의 분석)

  • Kim Yongdai;Park Jin-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.67-81
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    • 2005
  • Most of the previously proposed methods for the frailty model do not work well when there are many tied observations. This is partly because the empirical likelihood used is not suitable for tied observations. In this paper, we propose a new method for the frailty model with many ties. The proposed method obtains the posterior distribution of the parameters using the binomial form empirical likelihood and Bayesian bootstrap. The proposed method yields stable results and is computationally fast. To compare the proposed method with the maximum marginal likelihood approach, we do simulations.

Adaptive Bayesian Object Tracking with Histograms of Dense Local Image Descriptors

  • Kim, Minyoung
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.104-110
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    • 2016
  • Dense local image descriptors like SIFT are fruitful for capturing salient information about image, shown to be successful in various image-related tasks when formed in bag-of-words representation (i.e., histograms). In this paper we consider to utilize these dense local descriptors in the object tracking problem. A notable aspect of our tracker is that instead of adopting a point estimate for the target model, we account for uncertainty in data noise and model incompleteness by maintaining a distribution over plausible candidate models within the Bayesian framework. The target model is also updated adaptively by the principled Bayesian posterior inference, which admits a closed form within our Dirichlet prior modeling. With empirical evaluations on some video datasets, the proposed method is shown to yield more accurate tracking than baseline histogram-based trackers with the same types of features, often being superior to the appearance-based (visual) trackers.

A Bayesian test for the first-order autocorrelations in regression analysis (회귀모형 오차항의 1차 자기상관에 대한 베이즈 검정법)

  • 김혜중;한성실
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.97-111
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    • 1998
  • This paper suggests a Bayesian method for testing first-order markov correlation among linear regression disturbances. As a Bayesian test criterion, Bayes factor is derived in the form of generalized Savage-Dickey density ratio that is easily estimated by means of posterior simulation via Gibbs sampling scheme. Performance of the Bayesian test is evaluated and examined based upon a Monte Carlo experiment and an empirical data analysis. Efficiency of the posterior simulation is also examined.

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Simple Bayesian Model for Improvement of Collaborative Filtering (협업 필터링 개선을 위한 베이지안 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Young-Chan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.232-239
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    • 2005
  • Collaborative-filtering-enabled Web sites that recommend books, CDs, movies, and so on, have become very popular on the Internet. Such sites recommend items to a user on the basis of the opinions of other users with similar tastes. This paper discuss an approach to collaborative filtering based on the Simple Bayesian and apply this model to two variants of the collaborative filtering. One is user-based collaborative filtering, which makes predictions based on the users' similarities. The other is item-based collaborative filtering which makes predictions based on the items' similarities. To evaluate the proposed algorithms, this paper used a database of movie recommendations. Empirical results show that the proposed Bayesian approaches outperform typical correlation-based collaborative filtering algorithms.

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Multi-Robot Localization based on Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling

  • Je, Hong-Mo;Kim, Dai-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.357-361
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents a multi-robot localization based on Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling (BMDS). We propose a robust MDS to handle both the incomplete and noisy data, which is applied to solve the multi-robot localization problem. To deal with the incomplete data, we use the Nystr${\ddot{o}}$m approximation which approximates the full distance matrix. To deal with the uncertainty, we formulate a Bayesian framework for MDS which finds the posterior of coordinates of objects by means of statistical inference. We not only verify the performance of MDS-based multi-robot localization by computer simulations, but also implement a real world localization of multi-robot team. Using extensive empirical results, we show that the accuracy of the proposed method is almost similar to that of Monte Carlo Localization(MCL).

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Robust Bayes and Empirical Bayes Analysis in Finite Population Sampling with Auxiliary Information

  • Kim, Dal-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.331-348
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, we have proposed some robust Bayes estimators using ML-II priors as well as certain empirical Bayes estimators in estimating the finite population mean in the presence of auxiliary information. These estimators are compared with the classical ratio estimator and a subjective Bayes estimator utilizing the auxiliary information in terms of "posterior robustness" and "procedure robustness" Also, we have addressed the issue of choice of sampling design from a robust Bayesian viewpoint.

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A Short Note on Empirical Penalty Term Study of BIC in K-means Clustering Inverse Regression

  • Ahn, Ji-Hyun;Yoo, Jae-Keun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2011
  • According to recent studies, Bayesian information criteria(BIC) is proposed to determine the structural dimension of the central subspace through sliced inverse regression(SIR) with high-dimensional predictors. The BIC may be useful in K-means clustering inverse regression(KIR) with high-dimensional predictors. However, the direct application of the BIC to KIR may be problematic, because the slicing scheme in SIR is not the same as that of KIR. In this paper, we present empirical penalty term studies of BIC in KIR to identify the most appropriate one. Numerical studies and real data analysis are presented.

Small Domain Estimation of the Proportion Using Survey Weights

  • Kim, Dal-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1179-1189
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we estimate the proportion of individuals having health insurance in a given year for several small domains cross-classified by age, sex and other demographic characteristics using the data provided by the National Center for Health Statistics(NCHS). We employ Bayesian as well as frequentist methodology to obtain small domain estimates and the associated measures of precision. One of the new features of our study is that we utilize the survey weights along with the model to derive the small domain estimates.

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Laplace-Metropolis Algorithm for Variable Selection in Multinomial Logit Model (Laplace-Metropolis알고리즘에 의한 다항로짓모형의 변수선택에 관한 연구)

  • 김혜중;이애경
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2001
  • This paper is concerned with suggesting a Bayesian method for variable selection in multinomial logit model. It is based upon an optimal rule suggested by use of Bayes rule which minimizes a risk induced by selecting the multinomial logit model. The rule is to find a subset of variables that maximizes the marginal likelihood of the model. We also propose a Laplace-Metropolis algorithm intended to suggest a simple method forestimating the marginal likelihood of the model. Based upon two examples, artificial data and empirical data examples, the Bayesian method is illustrated and its efficiency is examined.

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