• Title/Summary/Keyword: Conflict Analysis

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Nuclear Weapons and Extended Deterrence in the U.S.-ROK Alliance (핵무기와 한·미 핵 확장억제 능력)

  • Huntley, Wade L.
    • Strategy21
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    • s.34
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    • pp.236-261
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    • 2014
  • The future role of nuclear extended deterrence in the security alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea is currently a central concern. The gradually lessening role of reliance on nuclear weapons in US security policies broadly, combined with increasing North Korean nuclear capabilities and belligerence, raise fresh questions about the sufficiency of the "nuclear umbrella" as a pillar of the US-ROK defense posture. This article addresses the current and future role of nuclear extended deterrence in Korea in this dynamic context. The article reviews the longstanding trend toward reducing the overall size of the US nuclear arsenal, and assesses developments in US-ROK outlooks toward extended deterrence in response to the Obama administration's nuclear policies and North Korea's recent smaller-scale aggressions. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term. The analysis explains how these challenges emerge less from a shrinking US numerical arsenal size than from the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet emerging smaller-scale threats. The analysis also highlights the importance of broader strategic and political interaction in sustaining allied confidence in any joint security posture. The evaluation concludes that a strong US-ROK alliance relationship can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, in part because nuclear weapons in any deployment configuration are relatively ineffective means for deterring smaller-scale aggression. Nevertheless, continuing adjustment of the US-ROK extended deterrence posture to the evolving, complex and uncertain Korean peninsula security environment will remain an ongoing challenge. Finally, the article encourages further examination of the potential specific role ROK maritime forces might serve in enhancing deterrence of smaller-scale threats while minimizing risks of conflict escalation.

Development and validation of the Kkondae tendency scale (꼰대경향성 척도 개발 및 타당화)

  • Ji Hyun Jung;Jin Kook Tak
    • The Korean Journal of Coaching Psychology
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.153-196
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to development and validate kkondae tendency scale. Kkondae tendencies are defined as "a response pattern to others in a way that values authority in social relationships, is self-centered, and does not accept other people's opinions," and the subjects of the study are workers aged 19 or older who act as seniors, seniors, and bosses in the workplace. In Study 1, 65 preliminary questions were produced with 7 factors for the compositional concept of kkondae tendency through literature review, expert interviews, and open questionnaire survey. In Study 2, a preliminary survey was conducted with 65 questions derived from Study 1. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted based on the responses of a total of 395 people, and 22 items for 4 factors were derived. In Study 3, this survey was conducted with 22 questions derived from Study 2. A total of 880 responses were analyzed, and cross-validation verification was conducted by dividing the data into two groups (Group 1 and Group 2). Exploratory factor analysis was conducted on Group 1 (N=429) to derive 19 items with 4 factors. The four factors are authoritarianism(3 items), egocentrism (5 items), inertial thinking (5 itemss), and one-sided communication (6 items). A confirmatory factor analysis was conducted on 19 questions obtained from Group 1 for Group 2 (N = 451), and 19 questions of four factors were accepted due to the good fit of the model. To verify the convergent validity of the Kkondae tendency scale, the correlation with the Kkondae scale was examined, and to verify the criterion-related validity, the relationship between self-reflection, relationship conflict, social connectedness was examined. All were statistically significant, and convergence validity and criterion-related validity were verified. Finally, discussions on the process and results of this study, differences from related measures, academic significance, practical implications, limitations of the study, and future research directions were presented.

Comparision of Family Environment, Health Behavior and Health State of Elementary Students in Urban and Rural Areas (도시.농촌 지역 초등학생의 가족환경, 건강행위 및 건강상태에 관한 비교)

  • Bae, Yeon-Suk;Park, Kyung-Min
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.502-517
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    • 1998
  • This research intends to survey family environment, health behavior and health status of the students in urban-rural elementary schools and analyze those factors comparatively, and use the result as basic material for school health teacher to teach health education in connection with family and regional areas. It also intends to improve a pupil's self-abilitiy in health care. The subjects involve 2,774 students of urban elementary schools and 583 student in rural ones, who were selected by means of a multi -stage probability sampling. Using the questionnaire and school documents, we collected data on family environment, health behavior and health status for 19 days. Feb. 2nd 1998 through Feb. 20th 1998. The R -form of Family Environment Scale (Moos, 1974) was used in the analysis of family environment(Cronbach's Alpha =0.80). Questionnaires of Health Behavior in School-aged children used by the WHO in Europe(Aaro et al., 1986) and the ones developed by the Health Promotion Committee of the Western Pacific(WHO, 1995)(adapted by long Young-suk and Moon Young-hee(1996)) were used in the analysis of health behavior, as well documents on absences due to sickness, school health room-visits, levels of physical strength, height, weight and degree of obesity were used to determine health status. In next step, We used them with an $X^2$-test, t-test, Odds Ratio, and a 95% Confidence Interval. 1. In two dimensions of three, family-relationship (t=3.41, p=0.001) and system -maintenances(t= 2.41, p=0.0l6) the mean score of urban children were significantly higher than those of rural ones. In the personal development dimension however, there was little significant difference. Assorting family environment into 10 sub-fields and analyzing them, we recognized that urban children were superior to rural children in the sub-fields of expressiveness (t =3.47, p=0.001), conflict (t=0.48, p=0.001), active-recreational orientation (t = 1.97, p=0.049) and organization (t=4.33, p=0.000). 2. Referring to the Odds Ratios of urban-rural children's health behaviors, urban children set up more desirable behavior than rural children wear ing safety belts (Odds Ratio =0.32, p=0.000), washing hands after meals(Odds Ratio = 0.43, p= 0.000), washing hands after excreting (Odds Ratio = 0.39, p=O.OOO), washing hands after coming - home ( Odds Ratio = 0.75, p = 0.003), brushing teeth before sleeping(Odds Ratio =0.45, p=0.000), brushing teeth more than once a day (Odds Ratio =0.73, p=0.0l2), drinking boiled water (Odds Ratio = 0.49, p=0.000), collecting garbage at home(Odds Ratio=0.31, p=0.000) and in the school(Odds Ratio =0. 67, p=0.000). All these led to significant differences. As to taking milk(Odds Ratio = 1.50, p=0.000), taking care of eyesight(Odds Ratio=1.41, p=0.001) and getting physical exercise in(Odds Ratio = 1.33, p=0.0l9) and outside the school(Odds Ratio = 1.32, p=0.005), rural children had more desirable behavior which also revealed a significant difference. There was little significant difference in smoking, but the smoking rate of rural children(5.5%) was larger than that of urban children(3.9%). 3. Health status was analyzed in terms of absences, school health room-visits, levels of physical strength, and the degree of obesity, height and weight. Considering Odds Ratios of the health status of urban-rural children, the health status of rural children was significantly better than that of the urban ones in the level of physical strength(t=1.51, p=0.000) and the degree of obesity(t=1.84, p=0.000). The mean height of urban children ($150.4{\pm}7.5cm$) is taller than that of their counterparts($149.5{\pm}7.9$), which revealed a significant difference (t =2.47, p=0.0l4). The mean weight of urban children($42.9{\pm}8.6kg$) is larger than that of their counterparts($41.8{\pm}9.0kg$), which was also a significant difference(t=2.81, p=0.005). Considering the results above, we can recognize that there are significant differences in family environment, health behavior, and health status in urban-rural children. These results also suggestion ideas for health education. What we would suggest for the health program of elementary schools is that school health teachers should play an active role in promoting the need and importance of health education, develop the appropriate programs which correspond to the regional characteristics, and incorporate them into schools to improve children's ability to manage their own health management.

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Understanding Contemporary Interstate Rivalries: Consensus Rivalries and Rivalry Termination (숙적관계 국가들에 대한 연구 - 숙적관계 종식에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인들을 중심으로 -)

  • Oh, Soon-Kun
    • Strategy21
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    • s.32
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    • pp.222-270
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    • 2013
  • 서구 근대 국제관계학의 태동은 "전쟁의 원인"을 밝혀내려고 했던 유럽 지식인들의 학문적 도전에서부터 비롯되었다고 할 수 있다. 1, 2차 세계대전의 잔혹함을 겪으면서 이들은 전쟁(특히 전쟁의 원인)에 대한 좀 더 과학적인 연구를 통해 어떻게 하면 국가들 간의 전쟁을 예방할 수 있을까에 집중해 왔다. 이러한 학문적 경향을 반영한 것이 잘 알려진 미국 미시간 대학의 "전쟁 상관성 연구 프로젝트(Correlates of War Project)"이다. 이는 나폴레옹 전쟁이 끝나고 비엔나체제가 시작된 1815년 이후 국가들 간 발생한 모든 전쟁 관련 자료를 데이터베이스화하여,국제관계학자들이 전쟁(Interstate War)이나 군사분쟁(Militarized Interstate Disputes)을 정량 또는 정성적으로 연구할 수 있도록 다양한 정보들을 제공하고 있다. 최근 Paul F. Diehl, William R. Thompson과 같은 학자들은 전쟁을 분석단위로 하는 전쟁의 원인(Causes of War)을 연구하는 학풍에서 벗어나, 국가들 간의 분쟁과 전쟁을 연구하기 위해 숙적관계(Rivalry)라는 새로운 분석의 단위를 제시하였다. 숙적관계는 국제관계에 있어서 지속적으로 분쟁 또는 전쟁을 일으키는, 즉 무력분쟁의 긴 역사를 가지고 있는, 두 국가를 일컫는다. 국가들 간의 숙적관계는 학자들에 따라 Interstate Rivalry, Enduring Rivalry, Strategic Rivalry 등 다양한 정의와 성격을 갖고 있다. 이러한 국가들의 사례로는 2차대전 이전까지 프랑스-독일 관계, 2차대전 이후 중동지역 이스라엘과 아랍국가들 간의 관계, 냉전기 미소관계, 인도-파키스탄 및 남북한 관계 등을 예로 들 수 있다. 이렇게 널리 알려진 숙적관계 외에도 남미의 칠레-아르헨티나, 에콰도르-페루와 아프리카의 소말리아-에티오피아 등 학자들에 따라 1815년 이후 약 200개의 숙적관계를 제시하고 있다. 숙적관계에 대한 연구는 기존의 전쟁의 원인 중심이었던 정량적 국제분쟁 연구에 두 국가의 분쟁역사를 포함시키는 정성적 연구를 접합시키고 있다. 본 연구는 1945년 이후 숙적관계 국가들의 관계종식과 관련하여, 거시론적이고 전체론적 접근방법(Macro - level Holistic Approach)을 제시하고 있다. 먼저 1945년 이후 발생한 국가들 간의 숙적관계 종식(Rivalry Termination)을 이해하기 위해, 거시적 관점에서 숙적관계를 발생시키게 된 역사적 원인을 살펴보고 있다. 특히 1945년 이후 숙적관계와 관련된 중요한 요인들 중에서 전쟁, 영토분쟁, 그리고 근대국가 형성에 대해 살펴보고 다음과 같은 두 가지 명제(proposition)를 제시한다. 첫째, 1945년 이후의 숙적관계 형성과 지속에는 2차대전 이후 독립국가 형성, 헌팅턴이 주장한 제3의 물결(민주화), 그리고 냉전기 미소경쟁 등의 역사적 배경이 영향을 주었다는 것이다. 둘째, 이러한 역사적 배경에 더하여 1945년 이후 숙적관계는 전쟁에 의해 시작된 숙적관계와 전쟁 없이 시작된 숙적관계 등 2가지로 나눌 수 있으며, 전쟁에 의해 시작되고 영토분쟁과 근대국가 형성 문제를 내포하고 있는 숙적관계가 그렇지 않은 숙적관계에 비해 오랫동안 지속되며 관계해결이 어렵다는 것이다. 앞서 제시된 2가지 명제들과 관련하여 본문에서는 다양한 학자들이 제시한 숙적관계 정의들에 일치하는 23개의 숙적관계(Consensus Rivalries)를 선정하여 이들에 대한 비교분석(Descriptive Analysis)을 실시하였다. 이들 사례들을 1945년 이전과 이후로 나누어, 숙적관계 형성과 종식에 있어 핵심요소인 국가들 간 힘의 차이(Power Relations), 분쟁의 주요 원인(Primary Conflict Issue), 숙적관계에 있어 다른 국가들과의 연계성(Rivalry Linkage), 전쟁의 횟수와 시기 등을 통해 비교하였다. 숙적관계의 종식과 관련하여 약소국 간의 숙적관계(Minor Dyad)가 오래 지속되고, 영토분쟁(Territorial Disputes)이 숙적관계를 지속시키는 주요인이며, 다른 숙적관계와의 연계성이 적은 숙적들이 오래 지속된다는 비교분석 결과가 나왔다. 또한 전쟁의 횟수는 숙적관계 종식에 큰 영향을 미치지 못하지만 전쟁으로 인해 시작된 숙적관계가 그렇지 않은 경우보다 더욱 오래 지속되는 것으로 확인되었다. 끝으로 2차대전 이전의 숙적관계는 대부분 전쟁을 통해 종식되었지만, 1945년 이후에는 전쟁 없이도 숙적관계가 종식된 경우가 많았음을 보여 주고 있다. 본 연구의 주목적은 "1945년 이후 형성된 숙적관계를 어떻게 종식시킬 수 있을 것인가?"라는 규범적 논제를 통해, 23개의 주요 숙적관계를 발굴하여 거시적, 역사적 관점에서 비교분석함에 있다. 이는 특히 우리나라가 처한 현실과 관련하여 중요한 시사점을 갖는다. 남북관계가 갖는 특수성보다는 1945년 이후 국제정치 역사속에서 발생한 숙적관계 현상이라는 일반성의 틀에서 남북관계를 이해하고자 했다. 남북관계를 베트남, 예멘, 독일 등 분단국가의 사례들과만 비교 연구하는 제한된 시각에서 벗어나, 인도-파키스탄, 그리스-터키, 에콰도르-페루 등 유사한 숙적들 간의 관계들과 비교하는 새로운 연구의 장을 제시하고자 한다. 따라서 앞으로 숙적관계 종식에 대한 더욱 다양화된 사례연구를 통해 한반도 분쟁해결에 필요한 새로운 교훈을 얻을 수 있을 것이다. 예를 들면 2차대전 이후 발생한 국경을 접하고 있는 비강대국들의 평화적인 숙적관계 종식에 대한 사례연구는 남북한이 앞으로 지향해야 할 방향을 제시해 줄 수 있을 것이다. 끝으로 본 연구는 특정한 정책적 함의를 도출하기 보다는 숙적관계와 관련된 하나의 거시적 이론를 제시하고, 주요 숙적관계 국가들에 대한 비교설명을 통해 현존하는 숙적관계 해결을 위한 하나의 분석의 틀을 제시하는 것으로 국제분쟁 연구에 기여하고자 하였다.

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An Empirical Testing of Employee Attchment Model: A Comprison of South Korean and U.S. Teachers (조직유착모형의 경험적 적합성에 관한 고찰 - 교사들의 경우를 중심으로 한 한 . 미간 비교연구 -)

  • 조동기
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.139-159
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    • 1996
  • This study comparatively examines a causal model of employee attatchment which focuses on employee's organizational commitment and intent to stay with an organization. This study is based on two separate studies of employee attachment among teachers : the U.S. case of the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) and the South Korean case of the Seoul Educational District (SED). The main purpose of this study is to replicate in Korea the CPS study. A revised model based on the unique characteristics of Korean teachers is also developed and estimated. The Price Mueller model of employee attachment provides the basic theoretical framework for this study. It includes five general classes of variables : 1) employee responses to work variables : job satisfaction, commitment, and intent to stay; 2) psychological stress variables: role ambiguity, role conflict, work overload, and quality of students; 3) social structural variables: autonomy, routinization, distributive justice, and legitimacy; 4) economic structural variables: pay, job security, promotional opportunities, and job opportunities; and 5) work orientation variables : career commitment, normative commitment, work motivation, affectivity, work values, and met expectations. The data was collected through questionnaire survey and a sample of 649 secondary school teachers in Seoul, South Korea, was included in the final analysis. Covariance structure analysis (LISREL) was used to estimate the causal model. The results indicate that the endogenous variables of job satisfaction and commitment play a considerably less important role than in the U.S. model in mediating the effects of the exogenous variables on intent to stay, and the model fails to explain the majority of the variance in intent to stay. In addition, the new variables added to the revised Korean model do not bave significant effects on intent to stay. The structural characteristics of the employment relationship and labor markets associated with Korean teachers forced mobility and closed external markets - are largely accountable for the major differences between the Korean and the U.S. cases. The study suggests that conceptual and empirical work on what produces employee attachment under these structural constraints needs to receive more attention in future studies.

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An Analysis of the National Suicide Rate in Korea during 2005 (2005년 전국 자살실태 분석)

  • Kim, Gi-Jeong;Kwak, Jyung-Sik
    • Journal of forensic and investigative science
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.5-22
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    • 2007
  • From the numerous social problems generated by the unbalanced social development and the social trend of belittling life overall, we found the causes of suicide getting worse in its seriousness day by day. In reality, the problem has been approached in a collateral level in contrast with other social problems. There have been an active involvement in studying the definition, causes and ways of prevention of suicide theoretically until now. However, different from other social problems, it is almost impossible to treat or fix the problem of suicide. Only ways to treat or fix the problem is when the suicide has ended in failure. Thus, this study intends to examine the suicide rate among the total accidents during the year 2005, perform the analyses on the actual causes according to the relations such as the means of suicide, occupation, age group, educational background, etc. In order to present a solution to the issue of suicide becoming serious each day. Among the total accidents in 2005, the suicide rate came out to be approximately 52.4%. Among the result, 52.4%, male with 69% resulted higher than female with 31%, which appears to be related to the social functions. While men tends to take more active(80%) means of suicide like jumping off, poison, hanging, etc., women tends to take more passive(60%) means of suicide like sleeping pills, slitting wrist, etc. In terms of the cause, pessimism, illness, denial, mental disorder, etc resulted more than 75%, and there were many cases of suicide after exhibiting the signs of depression. Also there were higher suicide rate of the unemployed engaged in direct labor with educational background lower than college level related to the pessimism regarding the family living cost. We were able to determine the recent increase in the suicidal tendency of the educated people higher than the college level and the retired people with depression caused by the sudden change in social status. Overall there are several reasons for suicide, however, in most cases the signs of depression were exhibited until the final suicide, which tells us the serious psychological problem of suicide. Assuming that the current development of suicide will continue in future, the result of this study will guide the corresponding social policies, be utilized in preparing the insurance or management at the national level dealing with the real social problems that are not just a conflict of an individual, but could spread like a fad and become much bigger than the present by the continuous support at the environmental, social and political levels, and be utilized as the basic data to establish the research plan.

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Life Experiences of Middle School Students from Broken Homes (결손가정 중학생의 생활경험)

  • Choe, Gee-Hyun;Chung, Yeon-Kang;Yeoum, Soon-Gyo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.271-283
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    • 1997
  • This study is designed for the school health education, contributing experience of life from middle school students from broken homes by describing specifically what they go through. And on this basis this study works out a grounded theory on the experience of life for middle school students from broken homes. The data was collected through a series of interviews with nine subjects singled out at each stage of research. With the permission of the subjects, the interviews were recorded and transcribed. The interviews lasted from 30 minutes up to one hour and 20 minutes. The in-depth interviewing methods and observations was used for data collection. The data was analyzed in the framework of grounded theory as mapped out by Strauss & Corbin (1990). By analyzing the materials eighty-three concepts were extracted, and they were united into 21 subordinate categories through the course of analysis. These were classified into nine precedence categories. The core category was found to be the adaptation of 'Wichookdem" or "Shrinkage". "Shrinkage" widows experienced was showed as the results "Self-reliance" and "Overcoming" through the course of generation and reaction, confrontation, and adaptation. According to the analysis findings of materials, the central phenomenon was showed as "shrinkage", the causal condition as "surprise", "Darkness", "Grudge", "Desolate", "Empty". The veins as presence of those around people and existence of support, and the meditate situation as self-support. For the strategy in solving "shrinkage", preparations of countermeasure and self-reinforcement were showed. And self-reliance and overcoming were the results. Through the contrast to the cases of ground materials, relation statements as follows were induced; (1) The weaker the suffering is, the weaker the "shrinkage" tends to be. (2) The stronger the suffering is, the stronger the "shrinkage" tends to be. (3) The more frequent and serious the suffering, the stronger the "shrinkage" tend to be. (4) The more infrequent and not serious the suffering is, the weaker the "shrinkage" tends to be. (5) The weaker the "shrinkage" is, the more self-control1ed the responses tends to be. (6) The stronger the "shrinkage" is, the more impulsive the responses tends to be. (7) The more satisfying the support is, the more self-controlled the responses to the "shrinkage" tends to be. (8) The more dissatisfying the support is, the more impulsive the responses to the "shrinkage" tends to be. (9) The more concrete the type of support is, the more self-controlled the responses to the "shrinkage" tends to be. (10) The more superficial the type of support is, the more impulsive the responses to the "shrinkage" tends to be. (11) The more self-controlled the responses are, the more self-reliant the subjects tends to be. (12) The more impulsive the responses are, the more conflict and wandering the subjects tends to be. (13) Whether the responses to the "shrinkage" express themselves in self-control or an impulse, it will be resulted in the form of either tension or pain. The following two were confirmed on the basis of repetitive relations; (1) If a subject's suffering is weak, infrequent and not serious, the "shrinkage" is weak. Also the subject's support is highly satisfying, and the support type is concrete. The responses to the "shrinkage" result in self-control which consequence is self-reliance with part. of it resulting in tension and pain. (2) If a subject's suffering is strong, frequent and serious, the "shrinkage" is strong. Also the subject's support is dissatisfying, and the support type is superficial. The responses to the "shrinkage" result in an impulsion whose consequence is wandering with part of it resulting in tension and pain. Through the results in this study, the following is to be suggested; O This research is basically aimed at analyzing the experience of the middle school students living in broken homes, for the more inclusive approach, the study for them is made systematically according to the type of their problems.

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Development of a Value Inquiry Model in Biology Education (생물교육에서의 가치 탐구 모형 개발)

  • Jeong, Eun-Young;Kim, Young-Soo
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.582-598
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    • 2000
  • There are many bioethical issues in line with the rapid advance of biology. In this situation, it is important for students to make a rational decision on value problem. In this study 'value inquiry in biology education' is defined as 'the process of rational value judgement and wise decision-making in the biology-related value problem' and the model was developed. To develop the model, value inquiry models were reviewed. Value clarification model is helpful for the formation of the personal value as the process of individual value inquiry, but it isn't helpful for clarifying the value conflicts. Value analysis model focuses on the rational solution of value problem through the logical procedure. But it has the limitations that overemphasizing the logical and systematic aspects results in devaluating students' affective aspects. So it is necessary to coordinate psychological and logical aspects of value inquiry. In this regard, the model was developed, including identifying and clarifying value problem, understanding biological knowledge related to conflict situation, considering on the related persons, searching for alternatives, predicting the consequences of each alternative, selecting the alternative, evaluating the alternative, and final value judgement and affirming it. The educational objectives of value inquiry were selected in consideration of the ability to carry out the steps of the developed model. And the selected contents were animal duplication, test-tube baby, genetic engineering, growth hormone injection problem, brain death, organ transplant, animal to be experimented and were organized on the basis of the 6th and the 7th science curriculum. And the suitable instructional models for the value inquiry education were selected: bioethical value clarification decision-making model, group presentation according to the value analysis model, role play and debate, and discussion through web forum. And the interview was considered to be suitable to evaluate the students' value inquiry ability and the rubric was made to evaluate the attainment of the educational objectives for value inquiry.

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Determination of cross section of composite breakwaters with multiple failure modes and system reliability analysis (다중 파괴모드에 의한 혼성제 케이슨의 단면 산정 및 제체에 대한 시스템 신뢰성 해석)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Kim, Sang-Ug;Park, Dong-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.827-837
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    • 2018
  • The stabilities of sliding and overturning of caisson and bearing capacity of mound against eccentric and inclined loads, which possibly happen to a composite caisson breakwaters, have been analyzed by using the technique of multiple failure modes. In deterministic approach, mathematical functions have been first derived from the ultimate limit state equations. Using those functions, the minimum cross section of caisson can straightforwardly be evaluated. By taking a look into some various deterministic analyses, it has been found that the conflict between failure modes can be occurred, such that the stability of bearing capacity of mound decreased as the stability of sliding increased. Therefore, the multiple failure modes for the composite caisson breakwaters should be taken into account simultaneously even in the process of deterministically evaluating the design cross section of caisson. Meanwhile, the reliability analyses on multiple failure modes have been implemented to the cross section determined by the sliding failure mode. It has been shown that the system failure probabilities of the composite breakwater are very behaved differently according to the variation of incident waves. The failure probabilities of system tend also to increase as the crest freeboards of caisson are heightening. The similar behaviors are taken place in cases that the water depths above mound are deepening. Finally, the results of the first-order modal are quite coincided with those of the second-order modal in all conditions of numerical tests performed in this paper. However, the second-order modal have had higher accuracy than the first-order modal. This is mainly due to that some correlations between failure modes can be properly incorporated in the second-order modal. Nevertheless, the first-order modal can also be easily used only when one of failure probabilities among multiple failure modes is extremely larger than others.

An historical analysis on the carbon lock-in of Korean electricity industry (한국 전력산업의 탄소고착에 대한 역사적 분석)

  • Chae, Yeoungjin;Roh, Keonki;Park, Jung-Gu
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.125-148
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    • 2014
  • This paper performs a historical analysis on the various factors contributing to the current carbon lock-in of Korean electricity industry by using techo-institutional complex. The possibilities of the industry's carbon lock-out toward more sustainable development are also investigated. It turns out that market, firm, consumer, and government factors are all responsible for the development of the carbon lock-in of Korean power industry; the Korean government consistently favoring large power plants based on the economy of scale; below-cost electricity tariff; inflation policy to suppress increases in power price; rapid demand growth in summer and winter seasons; rigidities of electricity tariff; and expansion of gas-fired and imported coal-fired large power plants. On the other hand, except for nuclear power generation and smart grid, environment laws and new and renewable energy laws are the other remaining factors contributing to the carbon lock-out. Considering three key points that Korea is an export-oriented economy, the generation mix is the most critical factor to decide the amounts of carbon emission in the power industry, and the share of industry and commercial power consumption is over 85%, it is unlikely that Korea will achieve the carbon lock-out of power industry in the near future. Therefore, there are needs for more integrated approaches from market, firm, consumer, and government all together in order to achieve the carbon lock-out in the electricity industry. Firstly, from the market perspective, it is necessary to persue more active new and renewable energy penetration and to guarantee consumer choices by mitigating the incumbent's monopoly power as in the OECD countries. Secondly, from the firm perspective, the promotion of distributed energy system is urgent, which includes new and renewable resources and demand resources. Thirdly, from the consumer perspective, more green choices in the power tariff and customer awareness on the carbon lock-out are needed. Lastly, the government shall urgently improve power planning frameworks to include the various externalities that were not properly reflected in the past such as environmental and social conflict costs.